[Politics] 2020 US election - Joe Biden vs Donald Trump

[Stat Brother]

Who didn't know Trump was going to pull shit? And it's looking like it might not END that close, which is ultimately what matters.

We really aren't. The result could STILL be a comfortable Biden win.

Oh and the !!!!! were there, as it wasn't my most serious point.

Nothing will be comfortable from now on, Trump is making sure of this.
(Again nothing we didn't already know)

 

[bhafc99]

We're not there yet fella.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Biden takes almost all of the close states still in play (Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania) - which would give him a fairly comfortable win overall (obviously at the time not feeling comfortable whatsoever, but looking back at the results, it would look comfortable). That would be 319-221.

Obviously it's still closer at this stage than many would've hoped for, but it's still not yet in the realms of "massive shock" at all.

Those of us who have been paying attention prior to the election were fully aware of the early red mirage, and the late blue surge - just like in 2018. We still don't know exactly how this is going to look come the full time whistle.

Update - Biden's just taken the lead in Wisconsin. Trump is running out of options.

Of that list, Trump has North Carolina.

While it’s not yet been called, it’s 95% counted and he’s 1.4 points up.

86% probability of Trump winning, according to NYT.


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[nwgull]

The ABC here in Australia are still calling it very close. The models they are use are mostly showing a Trump loss.

It seems at odds with what people are saying on here?? What are the news outlets you are watching saying?

If votes are counted without hindrance, including the postal votes that have an pre-election dated postmark but arrive within the next couple of days, then Biden probably wins. The chances of that being prevented from happening are why Trump is still marginal favourite.

 

[dwayne]

WInconsin just went red to blue with a big jump and 10% votes to count

Biden back in the game BIG time in the markets

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[Gazwag]

How does he know, surely it's a secret ballot. Could be an even split

Yes its a secret ballot but they know who has applied for a postal vote and there know which party they are a member of

 

[Mellotron]

Nothing will be comfortable from now on, Trump is making sure of this.

Again how uncomfortable and for how long - depends on the final score. If it's close, yes.

If he loses by a margin of 80-100 EVs, he's not going to be able to argue that.

 

[Stat Brother]

Wisconsin has just gone back to Biden with 96% counted.

 

[Mellotron]

Of that list, Trump has North Carolina.

While it’s not yet been called, it’s 95% counted and he’s 1.4 points up.

86% probability of Trump winning, according to NYT.


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Yeah, it was the one I was most hesitant on. 1.4 is a fairly small lead but probably gone.

 

[Mellotron]

Wisconsin has just gone back to Biden with 96% counted.

Yeah I mentioned that in my post to you that it seems you didn't fully read, given your response.

If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada - now looking pretty likely, he just needs one of Georgia/Michigan/Pennsylvania to win the electoral college.

 

[Taybha]

How fkd up must America be when it's a close run race between Trump , and , well anyone at all frankly .

 

[Lenny Rider]

Its a shame Robert Mugabe's dead they could have got him as an expert panellist on Sky News, this is fast turning into one of his legendary elections.

 

[bhafc99]

Wisconsin has just gone back to Biden with 96% counted.

Biden ahead by about 11,400 votes, with 32,000 votes still to be counted.

These 32,000 votes are coming from Green Bay – a traditionally Democratic district.

So it's Biden's, just the technicalities to complete.

 

[Stat Brother]

Yeah I mentioned that in my post to you that it seems you didn't fully read, given your response.

If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada - now looking pretty likely, he just needs one of Georgia/Michigan/Pennsylvania to win the electoral college.

The margin in Wis at the moment is .3.

There's no way he's not challenging all these fine margins across these states.

He could lose all of them and will still challenge the validity of all of them.

 

[highflyer]

Yes we are.

The election is considerably closer than many expect.
Trump is currently claiming victory.
He's talking of Supreme Court.
He's discrediting mail in vote.

The only parts of your prediction I am not so convinced about is that the courts will automatically back Trump and that he'll be able to whip up substantial chaos in the meantime.

It's ddefinitely the plan, now being put into execution, but I am not so sure on either count.

 

[Simster]

Trump was 1.5 on Betfair literally half an hour ago. He's now 2.02 and the odds are still rising.

 

[Mellotron]

The margin in Wis at the moment is .3.

There's no way he's not challenging all these fine margins across these states.

He could lose all of them and will still challenge the validity of all of them.

I get what you're saying. I think his case just becomes weaker with each EV he loses.

To be honest, I think we broadly agree, perhaps just not on the exact finer points/semantics of this, and I've just become aware that I'm arguing the toss because I'm really sleep-deprived and grouchy, so I'm going to stop now.

 

[zefarelly]

Trump will not give up until every avenue has been explored, every single little bit of anything has been checked and rechecked . . . . he's not interested in politics, its just like a week at a casino, he just wants to win, by hook or crook, and it's highly likely he will.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Biden now odds on as Wisconsin goes blue. Mesmerising this market.

 

[The Wizard]

Whatever the official result now: it will go to Supreme Court and there will be riots across America.

 

[Simster]

Trump was 1.5 on Betfair literally half an hour ago. He's now 2.02 and the odds are still rising.

And now down to 1.86. The markets are all over the place.