[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

Kinky Gerbil · Jul 6, 2024

If the answer the come up with is go more right wing, then they won't win
I'm not sure how right wing they are at the moment tbh, using the "stopping the boats" policy, the language wasn't great, but most the parties agree

I think the Tories problem is that no one knows what they are anymore, they are all over the place policy wise.

Perkino · Jul 6, 2024

2019 was a big swing towards Brexit

2024 is a clear, we cannot continue.

Conservative party seems to have become more right wing during their tenure, although Sunak was trying to convince us otherwise. I'm disappointed that the Lib Dems do not make it more of a 3 horse race as I would put pressure on both Labour and Conservative to hold more middle ground.

In 4/5 years the Conservatives will gain more votes and seats than now, but to regain power they need a complete overhaul and a push towards making life better for the workforce. I cannot see them making such changes quick enough and believe Kier Starmer could have a comfortable 10 years providing inflation and the cost of living improve under his watch

pb21 · Jul 6, 2024

Hunt rules out standing for leader.

Sid and the Sharknados · Jul 6, 2024

The Rivet said:
Yep I see your argument but I think it's missing the point. It would appear Reform never viewed this election as winnable. So that is irrelevant. It appears the aim was to destroy the tories who they see as wet lettuce 'one nation' centrist tories, for being too left of center, in their view. They wanted a voice in Parliament, they got it. So, if we accept it was never about 'winning' now, they have achieved their goal. Again, fact. Many don't like it but there you go

How would you suggest this translates to a strategy for actually winning power, rather than just splitting the conservative vote to "destroy the tories"?

Sid and the Sharknados · Jul 6, 2024

Eeyore said:
Quite. But he still manged 42% of the members vote against Truss. And he's not really right wing.

He's right wing compared to the country as a whole. Just because he happened to be standing against Liz Truss doesn't change that.

A nice, reasonable sounding concession speech and suddenly we're talking about the bloke as though he's some sort of nice cuddly Macmillan style post-war consensus Tory. :lolol:

The Rivet · Jul 6, 2024

Sid and the Sharknados said:
How would you suggest this translates to a strategy for actually winning power, rather than just splitting the conservative vote to "destroy the tories"?

I'm not going to suggest anything. It's up to Reform, it's MP's etc to plan however they wish over time. All I have done is point out how those that support the organisation think differently to the vast majority on these boards. People are allowed to have their views are they not? The next five years will be illuminating.

de la zouch · Jul 6, 2024

Read an interesting article that pointed out the tories lost more votes to the Lib Dem’s than reform. However i feel that the right of the party will win the internal battle and thus for the next election cycle they will remain wholly unelectable.
Remember labour after Brown’s defeat, lurched left with the wrong milliband and then went even further left with Corbyn before realising being in opposition is a bit crap.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jul 6, 2024

Weststander said:
Is it down to the lake I fear?

This is the main reason I engage with NSC. It reminds me of the classroom competition to see who could come up with smart arse comedy quickest and make the other boys snigger. That was a corker. Well done, Westy :lolol:

Bodian · Jul 6, 2024

BadFish said:
My view of UK politics over my lifetime is that the Tories are the default government. The UK electorate are right leaning and love a right leaning government.

This election was really all about the a Tories. Labour won a landslide because the Tories sunk to new lows.

Unless this election os the beginning of a seachange of the UK electorate (I see little evidence of this) the the plan is surely simple.

I think there is evidence it could be the beginning of a sea change - as below.

de la zouch said:
Read an interesting article that pointed out the tories lost more votes to the Lib Dem’s than reform. However i feel that the right of the party will win the internal battle and thus for the next election cycle they will remain wholly unelectable.

Giraffe said:
I’d say the conservative brand is broken. Much as it was for Labour in 1979. It will take a long time to recover that and they will have to do more than rebadge the party.

Next leader selection is critical but if they don’t bring Farage etc in to the fold they are going to struggle to get back into power as that centre right vote will continue to be split.

I'm relatively comfortable with the Tories aiming to go a bit more 'right-wing'. Firstly, it means they are likely to lose a few more of the older-fashioned style tory voter - those just right of centre. They will look for an alternative, and whilst they may not be able to stomach Labour, could well settle with the Lib Dems. And secondly - the reason as @BadFish says that the Tories are the 'default government' in our lifetime is because the left vote has almost always been split. If the Tories move further right, it just means that the right vote will continue to be split, and under the FPTP system that means that it is more likely to be Labour who become the default government for the rest of my lifetime. Which I'm fine with.

Perkino said:
I'm disappointed that the Lib Dems do not make it more of a 3 horse race as I would put pressure on both Labour and Conservative to hold more middle ground.

I think they're doing their very best to do this! And see above - there is the opportunity to pick up more disaffected Tory voters in the future. My 'new' constituency was quite instructive. When I moved here we had three tory district councillors, a tory county councillor and a tory MP. The MP was the first to fall following a couple of elections with the Lib Dems getting closer - then winning in 2005 by about 400 votes. The councillors have followed over the next 15-20 years, so we now have a full-house. It meant that in the last few general elections I felt safe voting for whoever I wanted, because the Tory candidate wasn't going to get in. However, the gerrymandering boundary changes meant that our constituency received a huge influx from the neighbouring true blue constituency - to the degree that if everyone voted as they did in 2019 it would have been a Tory win. Because of this, all those like me who had had the freedom to vote how we wanted instead of tactically flooded back to ensure we kept the Tories out. I thought it was going to relatively close. But - Lib Dems got 62% of the vote, and a 21,500 majority. He only had a 2,000 majority in 2019 - Labour lost their deposit again, and Reform only had about 4,000 more than Brexit Party in 2019. So - the majority of the switch was direct from Tory to Lib Dem.

The point I think I'm making is that these changes take time. Once someone has voted away from their 'default' vote - they are more comfortable in doing so again. I can see this happening elsewhere and the Lib Dems retaining their new seats and then adding some more, gradually becoming more of a force.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jul 6, 2024

Sorrel said:
UK politics are about bringing a coalition together, usually within the same party. This election it was noticeable that the Labour Party did their best to appeal to the more right of centre voters, not those on the left.

I would guess they knew that way they were more likely to turn votes into seats - unlike in 2019 where they went the other way and concentrated votes in the cities but lost outside them.

Whoever wants to be successful has to consider that lesson. The Conservatives/Reform need to look at the two areas they need to expand into and work out the best strategy, though they don't need to do it yet. Do they go after the northern/working class seats or do they try and appeal to the "shires" voters who've gone Lib-Dem.

No idea what the answer is for them, but they have the luxury of being able to keep quiet on policies now, as Labour have for the last year or so.

The unknown to me is what happens to the Lib Dems. They are in opposition, but what in practice will they oppose? They also campaigned apparently without policies, but now they have to decide what to support and what to not. Quite a lot of people who voted for them will have done so from an anti-Tory point of view, not because they enjoyed the leader's latest clowning attempts.

Maybe not being the Conservatives is enough for the Lib Dem voters to keep voting for them, but the Greens are moving up to take that space and they have actual policies. If the Conservatives go right, then the LibDems will move further into the centre (as they are sort of doing with the policy vacuum now).

And - of course - everything depends on "events". That is when Labour will start being judged. The Conservatives last time had Covid and never really recovered. I hope Labour are not so unlucky.

You think the 2019 strategy was carefully worked out in the expectation it would appeal to more voters?

Actually . . . . you're correct. That is what Corbyn thought :lolol:

But this is the classic political tautology: Everyone who wants to lead puts themself forward because they think their ideas are correct and will be popular. Nobody would select a stance that did not map to their true position just because they thought it would win votes, would they? Oh hang on.....that's exactly what Cameron did. He wrote his predecessor's right wing manifesto, then rebranded as friendly centrist, 'Call Me' Dave, to get elected as PM. This probably sums up the folly of creating a political phenotype out of thin air in an attempt to woo voters. Only May and Truss pursued conviction policies after that, and May's hands were tied by the absurd Brexit referendum result.

Which probably leads us to the answer posed by the OP. The Tories will do whatever the person they elect as leader thinks is a good idea, provided they can populate a shadow cabinet with like-minded chums. If they truly believes in their ideas, then they may find themselves back in government. If it is all gimmickry and bullshit (randomly selecting to back Brexit the night before deciding, followed by all the other gimcrack schemes and wheezes culminating in Rwanda), they are f***ed.

Perkino · Jul 6, 2024

Bodian said:
I think there is evidence it could be the beginning of a sea change - as below.

I'm relatively comfortable with the Tories aiming to go a bit more 'right-wing'. Firstly, it means they are likely to lose a few more of the older-fashioned style tory voter - those just right of centre. They will look for an alternative, and whilst they may not be able to stomach Labour, could well settle with the Lib Dems. And secondly - the reason as @BadFish says that the Tories are the 'default government' in our lifetime is because the left vote has almost always been split. If the Tories move further right, it just means that the right vote will continue to be split, and under the FPTP system that means that it is more likely to be Labour who become the default government for the rest of my lifetime. Which I'm fine with.

I think they're doing their very best to do this! And see above - there is the opportunity to pick up more disaffected Tory voters in the future. My 'new' constituency was quite instructive. When I moved here we had three tory district councillors, a tory county councillor and a tory MP. The MP was the first to fall following a couple of elections with the Lib Dems getting closer - then winning in 2005 by about 400 votes. The councillors have followed over the next 15-20 years, so we now have a full-house. It meant that in the last few general elections I felt safe voting for whoever I wanted, because the Tory candidate wasn't going to get in. However, the gerrymandering boundary changes meant that our constituency received a huge influx from the neighbouring true blue constituency - to the degree that if everyone voted as they did in 2019 it would have been a Tory win. Because of this, all those like me who had had the freedom to vote how we wanted instead of tactically flooded back to ensure we kept the Tories out. I thought it was going to relatively close. But - Lib Dems got 62% of the vote, and a 21,500 majority. He only had a 2,000 majority in 2019 - Labour lost their deposit again, and Reform only had about 4,000 more than Brexit Party in 2019. So - the majority of the switch was direct from Tory to Lib Dem.

The point I think I'm making is that these changes take time. Once someone has voted away from their 'default' vote - they are more comfortable in doing so again. I can see this happening elsewhere and the Lib Dems retaining their new seats and then adding some more, gradually becoming more of a force.

It was clear from the election campaign that it was a two horse race. . The Lib Dems have been much more vocal and present during previous campaigns. If they can build on this for future elections they may get invited to the TV debates as possible winners

Hugo Rune · Jul 6, 2024

pb21 said:
Hunt rules out standing for leader.

This wall called by Rory Stewart on TRIP podcast yesterday.

The reasoning was that the majority of Tory MPs left were hard right Brexiteers.

The Tory party’s journey to the right will surely continue. Combining with Reform with Farage as leader simply can’t be ruled out but hopefully any meaningful challenge to Labour at the next election can be.

Wozza · Jul 6, 2024

Where do Tory voters go? To buy mirrors, hopefully. Need a long, hard look at themselves.

heathgate · Jul 6, 2024

Bodian said:
I think there is evidence it could be the beginning of a sea change - as below.

I'm relatively comfortable with the Tories aiming to go a bit more 'right-wing'. Firstly, it means they are likely to lose a few more of the older-fashioned style tory voter - those just right of centre. They will look for an alternative, and whilst they may not be able to stomach Labour, could well settle with the Lib Dems. And secondly - the reason as @BadFish says that the Tories are the 'default government' in our lifetime is because the left vote has almost always been split. If the Tories move further right, it just means that the right vote will continue to be split, and under the FPTP system that means that it is more likely to be Labour who become the default government for the rest of my lifetime. Which I'm fine with.

I think they're doing their very best to do this! And see above - there is the opportunity to pick up more disaffected Tory voters in the future. My 'new' constituency was quite instructive. When I moved here we had three tory district councillors, a tory county councillor and a tory MP. The MP was the first to fall following a couple of elections with the Lib Dems getting closer - then winning in 2005 by about 400 votes. The councillors have followed over the next 15-20 years, so we now have a full-house. It meant that in the last few general elections I felt safe voting for whoever I wanted, because the Tory candidate wasn't going to get in. However, the gerrymandering boundary changes meant that our constituency received a huge influx from the neighbouring true blue constituency - to the degree that if everyone voted as they did in 2019 it would have been a Tory win. Because of this, all those like me who had had the freedom to vote how we wanted instead of tactically flooded back to ensure we kept the Tories out. I thought it was going to relatively close. But - Lib Dems got 62% of the vote, and a 21,500 majority. He only had a 2,000 majority in 2019 - Labour lost their deposit again, and Reform only had about 4,000 more than Brexit Party in 2019. So - the majority of the switch was direct from Tory to Lib Dem.

The point I think I'm making is that these changes take time. Once someone has voted away from their 'default' vote - they are more comfortable in doing so again. I can see this happening elsewhere and the Lib Dems retaining their new seats and then adding some more, gradually becoming more of a force.

Disaffected Cons voters in this election largely voted two ways, LD or Reform... there is little appetite to switch their vote to Labour, the voting numbers bare this out.... those further right voted Reform, those moderate centre right Cons voted LD as the least worst option, but also knowing the LD wouldn't actually win.

I repeat from one of my previous posts, less people voted Labour in this election than in the previous defeat in 2019... vote share was only +1.6% .... FPP wins the day of course, but there wasn't a huge swing of voters towards Starmers cause.... the opposition vote was split as vote share for the Cons dropped by 23% ...

Bodian · Jul 6, 2024

heathgate said:
Disaffected Cons voters in this election largely voted two ways, LD or Reform... there is little appetite to switch their vote to Labour, the voting numbers bare this out.... those further right voted Reform, those moderate centre right Cons voted LD as the least worst option, but also knowing the LD wouldn't actually win.

I repeat from one of my previous posts, less people voted Labour in this election than in the previous defeat in 2019... vote share was only +1.6% .... FPP wins the day of course, but there wasn't a huge swing of voters towards Starmers cause.... the opposition vote was split as vote share for the Cons dropped by 23% ...

I think that's pretty much what I was saying. This could be the long-awaited start of a gradual move from voting Tory to voting Lib Dem. Which will end up with a left-leaning government for many years to come.

heathgate · Jul 6, 2024

Bodian said:
I think that's pretty much what I was saying. This could be the long-awaited start of a gradual move from voting Tory to voting Lib Dem. Which will end up with a left-leaning government for many years to come.

Yes, this could be a side affect of that protest voting shift.....

Note: I do add however, that if those disaffected Cons who voted LD got a whiff that the LD could get get power... the one policy that would possibly see them jump back to the Cons is the LD policy of attempting a rejoin of the EU.

Zeberdi · Jul 6, 2024

de la zouch said:
Read an interesting article that pointed out the tories lost more votes to the Lib Dem’s than reform. However i feel that the right of the party will win the internal battle and thus for the next election cycle they will remain wholly unelectable.
Remember labour after Brown’s defeat, lurched left with the wrong milliband and then went even further left with Corbyn before realising being in opposition is a bit crap.

The alternative view and danger imo, is that Reform undergoes a ‘fake’ process of ‘moderation’ (as Marie Le Pen’s National Rally Party has done in the past decade) and therefore attracts a broader support base and makes inroads into local government and subsequently the next GE unless Labour can somehow manage to make the economy work better for the majority of low to middle income people - it’s not unusual for parties in opposition to undergo rebranding to make themselves more electable. I think it is a good possibility we’ll see a hard right spin off from the Tory Party that is somewhere between Reform and right of centre while the remains of the Tories rebrand themselves with centrist, one nation politics. We may not have FPTP but this election has ended the monopoly of Tory influence in British politics for the foreseeable future and at last restored some of the diversity that our ’representative’ governance has been sorely missing.

tigertim68 · Jul 6, 2024

The country is more left wing than ever before , the greens are more or less a communist party, the Labour Party is more left wing than ever before , the conservatives are more like the old liberals, which is why the conservatives lost , they have no leaders , and have moved too far from their core values , and were no longer fit for purpose,
Anyone who think Labour will change anything for the good , will be in for a shock , they have failed every time they have been in power

Barnet Seagull · Jul 6, 2024

The conservatives only have themselves to blame. By focusing on the right (immigration in particular) and a campaign targeting it, they have put all the groundwork in for Reform to say "we agree, but you've done nothing".
They didn't anticipate Farage swooping in and making them someone who people might actually vote for, Tice certainly doesn't have that pull and as such, they've been out-witted.

Reform can now attract the "non-tory" vote and that is going to be a real headache for them unless they can learn to act responsibly and in the interests of the country rather than themselves. Continue to act like spoilt kids and Farage will lap it up and keep taking votes. Having lost most of the moderates, I don't think they are capable of being conciliatory and selfless but if there's one thing that'll motivate them, it's regaining power.

Bodian · Jul 6, 2024

tigertim68 said:
the Labour Party is more left wing than ever before

?? Really? Do you mean 'more centrist / right-leaning than ever before'?

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