I’m waiting for the first chump on here to moan that the outgoing treasury office left a note saying there’s no more money and then be outraged
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[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
That would be
Think they will get a lot more than that but hoping their pain will be real
legendary and a memory that will last our life times
Think they will get a lot more than that but hoping their pain will be real
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,403
So it forecasts Labour is about to take a 212 seat majority with a lower percentage of the vote than it got under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.
oldboyroy
Well-known member
Yep. Far too much blue still!
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,821
seems bold, but pushes the matter off the agenda. probably spoken to a lot of European leaders and weighed up how it might or might not work. expect something more practical like improved trading arrangement, maybe even one that that looks and smells like customs union, but called something entirely different.
Indeed.
This ‘supermajority’ BS from the Tories will have the same effect as the last minute rolling out of that swine Johnson will have.
Tories will stay at home. There is a huge group of undecided voters whose natural instinct is ‘what’s in it for me?’ Why support a party when they are about to be crushed. Why get off your fat Tory ass to place a vote when the party has just undertaken probably the worst election campaign in history?
A Labour win is good, even with a small majority.
A Labour landslide beating the ‘97 total would be amazing.
But a result with Tory MPs on the double figures would be historic, utterly brilliant and wonderful for this country. Especially if somehow they could come third.
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
I can see why he has said this - he totally rejected a customs union when opposing May's deal in an attempt to bring down that government. As a statesman though he has to keep all options on the table, even ones which he knows are right but makes him look like a bit of an arse.
oldboyroy
Well-known member
Hope so!
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
And the new PM will have the lowest approval rating of any PM on taking office (or something like that - source: The Rest is Politics)
There's a site that has aggregated all of the MRP polls that have been run (13 on the site currently). And it has some neat filtering tools that makes it possible to analyse the level of agreement between all of them. So I took a look, and it's interesting.
I grabbed the numbers for levels of agreement for the big 3 parties (all of the minor parties at this level are negligible, even SNP) and got this:
What I take out of this ... there is actually a realistic possibility of the Lib Dems beating the Tories. While the general consensus is that the Conservatives will win more seats, the degree of agreement across the 13 MRP polls falls away remarkably for them. What this shows, I think, is just how fragile the Tory position is. A strong tactical voting turnout could see them in a lot of trouble vs the Lib Dems, as could a strong "shy Reform" turnout. Equally, a weak turnout from Tory supporters could also see them crumble.
I grabbed the numbers for levels of agreement for the big 3 parties (all of the minor parties at this level are negligible, even SNP) and got this:
| Party | 13 agree | 12 agree | 11 agree | 10 agree | 9 agree |
| Labour | 358 | 398 | 418 | 432 | 440 |
| Tory | 11 | 25 | 42 | 52 | 58 |
| Lib Dem | 26 | 36 | 40 | 47 | 53 |
What I take out of this ... there is actually a realistic possibility of the Lib Dems beating the Tories. While the general consensus is that the Conservatives will win more seats, the degree of agreement across the 13 MRP polls falls away remarkably for them. What this shows, I think, is just how fragile the Tory position is. A strong tactical voting turnout could see them in a lot of trouble vs the Lib Dems, as could a strong "shy Reform" turnout. Equally, a weak turnout from Tory supporters could also see them crumble.
Hmmm. I'm not entirely happy about the way this is worded given that It's not a direct quote from Starmer but the words of a journalist.
Especially the use of the word insisted and the assertion that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.
The BBC reporting of it reads rather differently and is in keeping with what he's said for some time:
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,403
The super majority rhetoric is more contempt for the public. The Tories had a super majority at the last election. 80 gives them total control of the legislature and nothing can be done about it. 80 is no different to 440. Excepting that rebellions are easier to put down.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
Close results in constituencies at the election could be challenged in the high court because of delayed postal votes, experts have said.
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,796
I don't think I've ever seen a betting market where you can't get a bet on before the race effectively starts. Extraordinary really given the result at the last election.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
What's the odds of a hung parliament?
Boooooooooooooooo
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,796
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
I'll have a small nibble at those odds.