[Albion] Will the lack of a “new manager bounce” be what costs us in the end?

[Weststander]

If the team does get relegated, as so many people seem to think that it will be, it will be down to the fact that the club simply did not sign two Premier league strikes before the end of the August transfer window. This is NOT the fault of Chris Hughton. Too many points dropped at home from games that we have dominated is why we now find ourselves in this position. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. There's still enough time to turn it around .....

Summed up perfectly.

 

[GT49er]

Why have we just acquired two?

Locadia - more of a number 10? Or perhaps we've only borrowed Leo to fill in until he's fit?

 

[Honky Tonx]

Why have we just acquired two?

The answer is that this is what has been needed all season. Such a shame that this was not done before the end of August. All is not lost, we're not down yet!!

 

[GT49er]

Disagree with that, in the nicest possible way. Chance after chance has been created but alas, the chances have been squandered. Packing one's defence is not going to score you goals.

I know that!!!!!




See my post #74!

 

[Honky Tonx]

Locadia - more of a number 10? Or perhaps we've only borrowed Leo to fill in until he's fit?

Splash out a cool million for a few games plus wages, make sense to me.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

I'm still going to do so, if that's OK with you.

Goals scored ranking: 20/20
Goals conceded ranking: 9/20

I acknowledge our poor scoring record but to some extent, up to the end of November, we were being kept in games by our defence. Opposition and media alike were labelling us as a difficult team to beat. We looked disciplined and organised. We had conceded 14 goals in 14 games with a goal difference of minus one. Teams knew we would dig in and make it hard for them. Most acknowledged that we had a fairly solid base in place and that any additional or better striking option and we would be fine.
We have gone backwards from that position. Now teams realise that we will architect our own downfall with mistakes. Now they know that if they hit us early, we are likely to concede. Now they know we cannot defend near post set pieces or pick up the first man. The manager persisted with defenders who were clearly struggling and it cost us dear.
In a desperately tight division, GD was always likely to play a part. Ours has now rapidly deteriorated to minus 16 and will not be recovered. In fact, with the run in we have, its likely to get a lot worse. It was a string to our bow. Not any more.
Now, we have to cling to the hope that our ' new ' strikers will hit the ground running and give us some confidence back but we will only win games if we tighten up at the back again and get more clean sheets.

 

[Honky Tonx]

I know that!!!!!




See my post #74!

So, would you prefer that we score less goals? Score one more than you let in and you get 3 points and what do points make? Happy Brighton and Hove Albion Bunnies

 

[Weststander]

I acknowledge our poor scoring record but to some extent, up to the end of November, we were being kept in games by our defence. Opposition and media alike were labelling us as a difficult team to beat. We looked disciplined and organised. We had conceded 14 goals in 14 games with a goal difference of minus one. Teams knew we would dig in and make it hard for them. Most acknowledged that we had a fairly solid base in place and that any additional or better striking option and we would be fine.
We have gone backwards from that position. Now teams realise that we will architect our own downfall with mistakes. Now they know that if they hit us early, we are likely to concede. Now they know we cannot defend near post set pieces or pick up the first man. The manager persisted with defenders who were clearly struggling and it cost us dear.
In a desperately tight division, GD was always likely to play a part. Ours has now rapidly deteriorated to minus 16 and will not be recovered. In fact, with the run in we have, its likely to get a lot worse. It was a string to our bow. Not any more.
Now, we have to cling to the hope that our ' new ' strikers will hit the ground running and give us some confidence back but we will only win games if we tighten up at the back again and get more clean sheets.

Good points.

But I think the three relegated clubs will go down clearly on points.

The number of wins and having goals in the team will determine who stays up. Last season the three lowest scoring clubs, had the fewest wins and went down. Boro's defence was very good, but they stunk the PL out. Whereas despite outsiders predicting their demise, Palace, Bmuff and Swansea always gather a stack of wins in the second half of the season to rise above the dross.

Over to CH and the players now to start winning games of football.

 

[The Gem]

I acknowledge our poor scoring record but to some extent, up to the end of November, we were being kept in games by our defence. Opposition and media alike were labelling us as a difficult team to beat. We looked disciplined and organised. We had conceded 14 goals in 14 games with a goal difference of minus one. Teams knew we would dig in and make it hard for them. Most acknowledged that we had a fairly solid base in place and that any additional or better striking option and we would be fine.
We have gone backwards from that position. Now teams realise that we will architect our own downfall with mistakes. Now they know that if they hit us early, we are likely to concede. Now they know we cannot defend near post set pieces or pick up the first man. The manager persisted with defenders who were clearly struggling and it cost us dear.
In a desperately tight division, GD was always likely to play a part. Ours has now rapidly deteriorated to minus 16 and will not be recovered. In fact, with the run in we have, its likely to get a lot worse. It was a string to our bow. Not any more.
Now, we have to cling to the hope that our ' new ' strikers will hit the ground running and give us some confidence back but we will only win games if we tighten up at the back again and get more clean sheets.

Hats off to you sir, a great post. And very true.

 

[vegster]

Been talking with a few non Albion supporting guys tonight and all think we are doomed. They all think that admirable though it is to keep Hughton regardless of results and they see the logic they think that this alone will send us down, because it so tight that not achieving the new manager bonus of 6-9 points may cost us.

Frankly I don’t care, I’d stick by Hughton regardless because he is the best man to bring us back up. But do they have a point? Are we going to miss out due to not using the manager booster button?

Quite possibly yes. We need 9 points at least from our next 4 games and I'm hoping Chris can do that. However, it's rare that there is never a new manage Bounce, just look at those around us and in fact going past us now.

 

[Weststander]

Quite possibly yes. We need 9 points at least from our next 4 games and I'm hoping Chris can do that. However, it's rare that there is never a new manage Bounce, just look at those around us and in fact going past us now.

Ignoring the statistical evidence as pointed out by @ElPresidente about the alleged bounce factor.

 

[vegster]

Ignoring the statistical evidence as pointed out by @ElPresidente about the alleged bounce factor.

Yes, I think we have had enough of statistics and experts... As some little ferrety guy said.

 

[GT49er]

So, would you prefer that we score less goals? Score one more than you let in and you get 3 points and what do points make? Happy Brighton and Hove Albion Bunnies

You obviously haven't read my post. Either that or you just haven't understood it for some reason.

And as for, "Would you prefer that we score less goals?".......I've just nominated it for silly question of the year.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

I acknowledge our poor scoring record but to some extent, up to the end of November, we were being kept in games by our defence. Opposition and media alike were labelling us as a difficult team to beat. We looked disciplined and organised. We had conceded 14 goals in 14 games with a goal difference of minus one. Teams knew we would dig in and make it hard for them. Most acknowledged that we had a fairly solid base in place and that any additional or better striking option and we would be fine.
We have gone backwards from that position. Now teams realise that we will architect our own downfall with mistakes. Now they know that if they hit us early, we are likely to concede. Now they know we cannot defend near post set pieces or pick up the first man. The manager persisted with defenders who were clearly struggling and it cost us dear.
In a desperately tight division, GD was always likely to play a part. Ours has now rapidly deteriorated to minus 16 and will not be recovered. In fact, with the run in we have, its likely to get a lot worse. It was a string to our bow. Not any more.
Now, we have to cling to the hope that our ' new ' strikers will hit the ground running and give us some confidence back but we will only win games if we tighten up at the back again and get more clean sheets.

that goal difference is skewed by conceding 11 goals to Liverpool and Chelsea in 3 matches in Dec and Jan. Overall our defence has been fairly consistent all season.

 

[Justice]

It's not the new manager bounce it's the players deciding to play again. Once players lose faith with the manager they want him gone, wouldn't surprise me if Southampton rolled over tonight.

 

[Weststander]

Yes, I think we have had enough of statistics and experts... As some little ferrety guy said.

OK.

Let's say Pardew, Hodgson or Carvahal had been parachuted in, in mid December, following the sacking of Hughton. In the real world of working with a given squad, how would they have got more wins from a squad devoid of pace (other than Izquierdo), top flight strikers, a RB weakness, no attacking CM with pace and 2 wingers struggling at PL level?

At their new clubs they have players with pace, PL quality strikers and towering PL savvy centre backs who have scored many vital PL goals.

 

[vegster]

OK.

Let's say Pardew, Hodgson or Carvahal had been parachuted in, in mid December, following the sacking of Hughton. In the real world of working with a given squad, how would they have got more wins from a squad devoid of pace (other than Izquierdo), top flight strikers, a RB weakness, no attacking CM with pace and 2 wingers struggling at PL level?

At their new clubs they have players with pace, PL quality strikers and towering PL savvy centre backs who have scored many vital PL goals.

Since you put it like that, we might as well quit now.

 

[Giraffe]

Interesting. When I posted this thread late last night after a few drinks and too many Premier League glory boys telling me little old Brighton were doomed I didn't expect it to still be running now.

My take from the conversation I had was that long term doesn't apply in the Premier League unless you are Arsenal. The exception being Burnley.

I argued strongly that even if Brighton go down we will come back up stronger as a result in Burnley fashion, but fundamentally I guess the core problem is that mid table obscurity does not exist in the Premier league anymore. There are two divisions, the top six, then the rest. Okay 2/3 teams somewhere in the middle. But generally there is going to be a hard core of bottom ten who are generally very similar.

I would put the case that the manager is almost an irrelevance in this discussion. It's about the owner backing the team in August and then again in January. It's about getting the player recruitment right as well. The manager may or may not be heavily involved with this. In our case I think he is. Other managers less so. I'd say overall across the season it makes no difference and there is a very good case for saying continuity is good in football generally.

However there is a fundamental point that changes this - the attitude of the players, and particularly those players used to playing for a bottom ten premier league team. There are players in teams like Stoke (sorry Stoke) that have been playing in the Premier League for five season and are used to a good season being winning less than a third of their games. By definition they are losers. Success is measured by survival not by being winners. These players can easily, on the money they are paid for relative failure, just sit back in the comfort zone. Most players are just like us, if they can get away with doing an average job at work then they will. Therefore these players occasionally need a good kick up the back side, a change, a refresher. That is why I believe the new manager bounce does happen in a lot of cases.

However I don't believe we have such a group of players. I think the tactics needed a refresh and I was pleased that Hughton finally woke up to that v Chelsea and I hope he continues with this. But our players are still giving their best and therefore for me all the time they are doing this there is no need for a new manager bounce because it won't happen. If this changes though (and it may do if we stay up in a few seasons time) then we may have to look at it. Until then we don't need a bounce from a new manager, a new player bounce which will hopefully come from Ulloa and Locadia and this will be very welcome but I fear it may be too little too late to save us this season.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

OK.

Let's say Pardew, Hodgson or Carvahal had been parachuted in, in mid December, following the sacking of Hughton. In the real world of working with a given squad, how would they have got more wins from a squad devoid of pace (other than Izquierdo), top flight strikers, a RB weakness, no attacking CM with pace and 2 wingers struggling at PL level?

At their new clubs they have players with pace, PL quality strikers and towering PL savvy centre backs who have scored many vital PL goals.

They would all have the same problems Chris has had to deal with.

The thing others are missing when they assume a team's results improve with the arrival of a new manager, is the quality of the men in question. The new manager bounce is not some supernatural phenomenon, if it were it would occur in all cases. The truth is sometimes changing the manager doesn't work, but when it does it is most often because the sacked manager was crap and the new manager is more skilled.

The question is are there any managers available who are more skilled than the current incumbent? Is Carlos Carvalhal or Alan Pardew a better manager than Chris Hughton? No. So there would likely be no new manager bounce if they were to replace him.

 

[Honky Tonx]

You obviously haven't read my post. Either that or you just haven't understood it for some reason.

And as for, "Would you prefer that we score less goals?".......I've just nominated it for silly question of the year.

As I understood it, you did say that we should pack our defence which led me to the conclusion that you feel that it is not our lack of goals that is costing us so dearly.