[Albion] Will the lack of a “new manager bounce” be what costs us in the end?

[The Gem]

No.

1. Stuffing up the Summer transfer window when it came to bringing in genuine quality up front which, in turn, led to...

2. Failing to convert dominant performances, particularly at home, into the victories deserved. We all know which games those were.

Which led to

3, Shambolic defensive displays from one of the best defences at the start of the season.

 

[Bozza]

You can focus on the forward line all you like but we have been a shambles defensively for the last two months and the manager persisted with certain defenders, whose mistakes have cost us dear, whilst we had more than capable deputies in reserve.

I'm still going to do so, if that's OK with you.

Goals scored ranking: 20/20
Goals conceded ranking: 9/20

 

[Eeyore]

Good question.

Here's a link to an article on the whether the new manager bounce actually exists or whether it is, in fact, just coincidence.

https://www.footballfancast.com/premier-league/why-a-new-manager-bounce-is-only-for-christmas-not-for-life

The parting comment was "perhaps, then, the answer lies not in relying on an injection of new blood every time crisis looms but rather a club taking the time and calmness to find the right man and entrusting in him to eventually find the magic formula."

Improvement through continuity rather than wholesale change is what's advocated.

I'd go for that and I hope so would most supporters as well as TB.

We've got the right man in charge.

What also happens is that clubs who stick with their current manager often get a bigger bounce after a sustained period of poor form. Klopp at Dortmund being a prime example.

 

[Albumen]

Yes, like it cost Burnley last year . . . hang on.

 

[Weststander]

Which led to

3, Shambolic defensive displays from one of the best defences at the start of the season.

 

[Weststander]

I'm still going to do so, if that's OK with you.

Goals scored ranking: 20/20
Goals conceded ranking: 9/20

Don't let facts get in the way of a flawed argument.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Indeed. But it feels like a coin toss now - the bookies' odds probably suggest as much, as...

1. Leo doesn't have raw pace.

2. It looks like Locadia won't be available until the last 12 games of the season - that's less than a third. He needs to get up to match fitness having been out for a couple of months or so, and needs to adjust to the Premier League. We need him to be fit and adjusted pretty damn quickly because after the next four games, it all looks very tricky indeed.

About right...and as I've felt all season and probably will continue to feel the rest of it ...but then a few other clubs will be feeling the same...notably Huddersfield and Newcastle

 

[Thunder Bolt]

https://twitter.com/kerrymayo3/status/958498019854479360

[tweet]958498019854479360[/tweet]

 

[el punal]

I can think of two clubs who have used the "revolving door" get-a-new-manager-in policy over the last few years - Leeds United and Nottingham Forest. Now, remind me again where they are in the league?

 

[Albumen]

Last time he was sacked he was 5 points off relegation with 5 fixtures left, 4 of which were 'top 4' teams. Lets hope we're better than Norwich as I doubt we'll be 5 clear with 5 to go!

 

[Moshe Gariani]

If you take a look at the academic and statistical research done into the ‘New manager bounce’ theory, it can be summed up in one word, ‘Bollocks’.

Quite.

If you listened to the dullards on here then you'd think it would be a good strategy to employ managers on 6 game contracts. A consortium of 4 clubs who believed in it could just rotate Pardew, Pulis, Clement and Juan Manager around between them throughout the season...

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The failure to bring in a striker in the summer, several of the missed opportunities in home games and some of the decisions tactically throughout the season that backfired are what could cost us, as well as established teams around us having more financial muscle and having better quality amongst their ranks. The new manager bounce phenomenon is inconclusive, it exists in some cases and doesn't in others

Do you mean that it depends on the difference between the new and the old manager, and the ability of the squad to change what they do, this given that with the old manager they were underperforming, plus other intangibles? You make it sound a bit like homeopathy, which only works when it works, and only if you believe it works. And even then, it may not work. I'm not being entirely facetious here - cause and effect interest me in my work context, and even under lab conditions people draw false inference. I suspect all that can be said here is that changing a manager is statistically associated with a very small increase in the liklihood of an improvement in results over a defined period. Or not - I don't know the facts.

 

[Honky Tonx]

If the team does get relegated, as so many people seem to think that it will be, it will be down to the fact that the club simply did not sign two Premier league strikes before the end of the August transfer window. This is NOT the fault of Chris Hughton. Too many points dropped at home from games that we have dominated is why we now find ourselves in this position. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. There's still enough time to turn it around BUT it's not just a case of winning games, it's also going to be have to rely on the other results as well. Each and every supporter can also play His and Her and part. We are BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION, we don't go down without a fight

 

[GT49er]

I don't want to sack Hughton. He has done a terrific job, and if we do go down I think he would be the man to get us back up again; I'd at least want him to have the chance. Maybe though it's time for Uncle Tony to do what owners generally shouldn't do - have a word with him. Just for once, maybe a bit of interfering is needed - it really feels as if CH is getting stuck in stubborn mode, and somebody needs to tell him to free up his team to play further up the field (and not to crowd out our penalty area so much that the ball ricochets about in there and eventually and inevitably ends up in our net).

 

[GT49er]

If the team does get relegated, as so many people seem to think that it will be, it will be down to the fact that the club simply did not sign two Premier league strikes before the end of the August transfer window.

Why two? We'd only ever have played one of them.

 

[Honky Tonx]

Why two? We'd only ever have played one of them.

Injuries and subs plus it gives you the option of playing two up front

 

[GT49er]

Injuries and subs plus it gives you the option of playing two up front

No, they're needed to pack the defence.

 

[Withdean]

The bounce lasts 3-5 games. 11 teams have relegation potential.

That is all.

 

[Bozza]

Why two? We'd only ever have played one of them.

Why have we just acquired two?

 

[Honky Tonx]

No, they're needed to pack the defence.

Disagree with that, in the nicest possible way. Chance after chance has been created but alas, the chances have been squandered. Packing one's defence is not going to score you goals.