[Albion] Will the lack of a “new manager bounce” be what costs us in the end?

[Steve.S]

Because stable clubs aren't good football clubs. We need to be a basket case like, Sunderland, Hull, Boro and then of course the managerial changes in our division, at least once since the season started, Swansea, Stoke, WBA, Southampton constantly at the end of a season, all currently below us. We need that current boost like a hole in the head. You're either trying to make an interesting reaction thread start or you have armchair muppet fans for friends.

Apart from Southampton who like us have seemed to have stood still. Swansea and West Broms starting point from when they changed managers was at least 7 points behind us. They have both narrowed that gap over the last few weeks. Then you forgot to mention Everton, West ham and our friends up the road who have changed managers and since passed us as we free fall towards the drop zone. It’s pointless changing the manager now as he would be our best bet to get back up. Long term then you have to start thinking has Chris got what it takes to be a premier league manager and in my opinion no. He is far to negative and I don’t mean against the big boys.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

If you take a look at the academic and statistical research done into the ‘New manager bounce’ theory, it can be summed up in one word, ‘Bollocks’.

100% correct. Tony Bloom being a statistician will know the phrase 'regression to the mean' more than most. Yes, players will initially work a bit harder in training to impress the new manager, but that will soon tail off and any upturn in form would statistically have been achieved by the old manager anyway.

 

[Don Tmatter]

The failure to bring in a striker in the summer, several of the missed opportunities in home games and some of the decisions tactically throughout the season that backfired are what could cost us, as well as established teams around us having more financial muscle and having better quality amongst their ranks. The new manager bounce phenomenon is inconclusive, it exists in some cases and doesn't in others

This in a nutshell.

 

[doogie004]

Where do you get this confident "he is the best man to bring us back up"? I completely disagree, yes he is a good manager at Championship level, but present players WILL move on, if we go down it will be desperate, money will be a massive thing, even if we are doing ok in the Championship we will NOT have full houses every game, it just won't happen, unless we are right up the top doing a Man City! I will state now, I WOULD RATHER STAY UP WITH CH STOPPING AS MANAGER, I DONT WANT HIM GONE! but if we do go down really do expect massive changes, and if I am wrong about CH bringing us straight back up.......I will bounce the thread and be very happy!! sadly I just don't think it will work out like that, we will have to re build under quite harsh conditions, I'm sure Tony Bloom said something along the lines of "we must stay up at all costs" (something like that anyway.....)

“Stay up at all costs “ sorry and injured striker and ulloa as much as I’m looking forward to seeing him play for us again is not staying up at all cost! It’s trying to do it on the cheap . I know £14 million is an obscene amount of money to us normal people but it’s not the going rate for a striker . As someone the other day said £20 million is the new £8 million


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[Shooting Star]

Chris is the right man to attempt to take us back up to the Prem if we go down, but more importantly for me, he's the right man to make sure we don't into freefall and straight down to League 1. That's my bigger concern. Getting relegated this season doesn't bother me too much. The Championship is a fun league with great away days.

He's also the right man to lead us to an FA Cup Final. Charge!

 

[Mo Gosfield]

“Stay up at all costs “ sorry and injured striker and ulloa as much as I’m looking forward to seeing him play for us again is not staying up at all cost! It’s trying to do it on the cheap . I know £14 million is an obscene amount of money to us normal people but it’s not the going rate for a striker . As someone the other day said £20 million is the new £8 million


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You can focus on the forward line all you like but we have been a shambles defensively for the last two months and the manager persisted with certain defenders, whose mistakes have cost us dear, whilst we had more than capable deputies in reserve.

 

[Lethargic]

Why not sack him and then immediately rehire him that way we keep him but get the new manager bounce if it exists? If it works we could repeat every couple of weeks and be on a continuous bounce.

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[jimhigham]

There is a very good piece in this month's issue of When Saturday Comes about Swansea. Once upon a time they were a club that had a clear plan and their own way of doing things. This is now their seventh season in the Premier League and they have changed manager in each of the last four, driven by fear of relegation each time.

It's all well and good changing the manager with a brief purely to stay you then run the risk of locking a club into a despondent cycle: Sunderland are a similar case in point. Once you give into this short termism it is very difficult to stop and there is a chance that Palace are beginning to go down this path. No one manager can develop a style of play or a plan if they are only minding the shop for a year.

Should we go down then clearly the model to aspire to would be Burnley's. Dyche was not sacked, the team licked it's wounds and came back stronger as a result. It can happen.

 

[Bold Seagull]

The biggest problem has been we've entered the PL at a time when many of the sides have established themselves, and had 2 seasons or more to improve and strengthen squads. Only Burnley had a single seasons prior to this one. There have been no perennial strugglers, or sides suffering financially (that we know of) other than perhaps Swansea who escaped last season. Every other side has had funds to improve and strengthen their sides year on year, and it shouldn't really come as a great surprise that the 3 promoted sides find themselves sliding toward the drop zone at the business end of the season.

That isn't to say we cannot still do this. As Swansea have shown, a couple of results can transform your mentality, confidence, even your luck (with top quality goalkeepers passing it to your centre forward). I'll travel across the A27 this afternoon nervous, but confident. What we need is NSB (New Signings Bounce), and a mini run of results. A couple of wins strung together propels you well clear for a time. Every game is so tough though, Southampton will obviously view this as a must win for survival for them. You've got to be up for the magnitude of these games, it is what its all about.

 

[fosters headband]

You can sack and bring in as many managers you like, but if you do not have a recruitment team capable of identifying and landing quality players into the club, the managers are handicapped.

 

[raymondo]

Where do you get this confident "he is the best man to bring us back up"? I completely disagree, yes he is a good manager at Championship level, but present players WILL move on, if we go down it will be desperate, money will be a massive thing, even if we are doing ok in the Championship we will NOT have full houses every game, it just won't happen, unless we are right up the top doing a Man City! I will state now, I WOULD RATHER STAY UP WITH CH STOPPING AS MANAGER, I DONT WANT HIM GONE! but if we do go down really do expect massive changes, and if I am wrong about CH bringing us straight back up.......I will bounce the thread and be very happy!! sadly I just don't think it will work out like that, we will have to re build under quite harsh conditions, I'm sure Tony Bloom said something along the lines of "we must stay up at all costs" (something like that anyway.....)

Probably correct. Few teams bounce straight back up - Burnley were an exception.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Where do you get this confident "he is the best man to bring us back up"? I completely disagree, yes he is a good manager at Championship level, but present players WILL move on, if we go down it will be desperate, money will be a massive thing, even if we are doing ok in the Championship we will NOT have full houses every game, it just won't happen, unless we are right up the top doing a Man City! I will state now, I WOULD RATHER STAY UP WITH CH STOPPING AS MANAGER, I DONT WANT HIM GONE! but if we do go down really do expect massive changes, and if I am wrong about CH bringing us straight back up.......I will bounce the thread and be very happy!! sadly I just don't think it will work out like that, we will have to re build under quite harsh conditions, I'm sure Tony Bloom said something along the lines of "we must stay up at all costs" (something like that anyway.....)

Even if TB didn't say it, I am sure that he is thinking it.
Despite the confidence of some fans, that relegation is a mere blip and we can bounce back again, in my book, it would be a disaster. This club hasn't undergone this investment to put a top level infrastructure in place, to see our hard earned position lost after one season. We didn't get promoted from nowhere. This has been building up for 5-6 seasons ( the Hyypia blip aside ) The momentum, the feel good factor has to continue, if we are to grow into something better than just a club that sits most comfortably at Championship level. Busting a gut to get up and then not having the player resource to survive. Just to hang on will see great benefit in continuing to recruit and strengthen. Relegation will not. We will lose any really class players we have. The Championship loses its best players to the PL. Its dog eat dog. Relegation means a big difference in income and the books have to be balanced. Big changes would happen.
Even with CH in charge, it doesn't guarantee an instant return and with the gap widening every season between the Pl ( new and improved TV deal just around the corner ) and the rest, it will be even harder to get back.

 

[Weststander]

To me, squad quality with top flight quality match winners, keeps clubs in the PL.

Good managers, like Hughton and Rafa, need that as a bare minimum. Albion, Newcastle and now it seems Hudd failed to bring in top flight quality last summer, and so have been falling steadily.

Carvahal, Pardew, Moyes and Hodgson had that quality in place already, from PL squads assembled at great expense over many PL windows. (Previous) non-PL watchers sneered at their squads, but each has loads of quality in there.

Clement, De Boer, Bilic and Pulis were simply inadequate in the end.

 

[El Presidente]

So are you saying 99% of clubs get it wrong and haven't researched this?

I do.

 

[Weststander]

NOTHING'S going to 'cost us in the end'. For the first time this season, the manager's been given the tools to do the job i.e. the couple of strikers we've all been crying out for. Will be massively surprised if we haven't turned the corner now. At the very least, we've given ourselves a fighting chance. As a wise man once said, Keep The Faith!

Belatedly, the manager's been given the tools.

 

[Gritt23]

The desire to get a "new manager bounce" is the very epitome of short-termism. You either rate your current manager or you don't, but if you rate him - and I rate Chris Hughton extremely highly - the idea that you would cast him aside for a misguided hope and belief that this "new manager", seemingly regardless of who they are, will come through the doors with points under his arm, is quite frankly, ludicrous.

Even if that WAS the case (and a "new manager bounce" was guaranteed), if that means enduring a year or so of the wrong manager, while we see some other team storm past us with Chris Hughton at the helm then the upside of that "bounce" will soon be forgotten and we'll be feeling pretty stupid.

 

[Weststander]

The biggest problem has been we've entered the PL at a time when many of the sides have established themselves, and had 2 seasons or more to improve and strengthen squads. Only Burnley had a single seasons prior to this one. There have been no perennial strugglers, or sides suffering financially (that we know of) other than perhaps Swansea who escaped last season. Every other side has had funds to improve and strengthen their sides year on year, and it shouldn't really come as a great surprise that the 3 promoted sides find themselves sliding toward the drop zone at the business end of the season.

That isn't to say we cannot still do this. As Swansea have shown, a couple of results can transform your mentality, confidence, even your luck (with top quality goalkeepers passing it to your centre forward). I'll travel across the A27 this afternoon nervous, but confident. What we need is NSB (New Signings Bounce), and a mini run of results. A couple of wins strung together propels you well clear for a time. Every game is so tough though, Southampton will obviously view this as a must win for survival for them. You've got to be up for the magnitude of these games, it is what its all about.

Great post.

There were no perennial strugglers left in the PL (Villa and Sunderland), and the others all have strengths in their top flight quality squads assembled over many windows.

Should Wolves and Villa go up, I predict them learning from the PL struggles of Mboro, Albion, Hudd and Newcastle, by going all out in buying top flight quality players across their PL squads including strikers, at great cost if need be.

 

[Bladders]

To me, squad quality with top flight quality match winners, keeps clubs in the PL.

Good managers, like Hughton and Rafa, need that as a bare minimum. Albion, Newcastle and now it seems Hudd failed to bring in top flight quality last summer, and so have been falling steadily.

Carvahal, Pardew, Moyes and Hodgson had that quality in place already, from PL squads assembled at great expense over many PL windows. (Previous) non-PL watchers sneered at their squads, but each has loads of quality in there.

Clement, De Boer, Bilic and Pulis were simply inadequate in the end.

Having a good enough squad is one thing, though I cant imagine any promoted club being able to replace its Championship starting 11 for a Prem quality one in just 2 windows.

I personally think our group of players is good enough to stay up.


What concerns me though is more often than not a manager who sets them up so deep in their own half, to only then come away with a low score defeat most weeks, whilst restricting the opportunities of our team creating chances due to his overly defensive tactics .

Understandable in the first month or so of the Prem, but we're half way through the season now and its working less effectively every time.

Be interesting to see his team selection and tactics this evening, but don't be surprised if we come away with a comfy 0-2 defeat and 1 attempt on target.

 

[Bold Seagull]

To me, squad quality with top flight quality match winners, keeps clubs in the PL.

Good managers, like Hughton and Rafa, need that as a bare minimum. Albion, Newcastle and now it seems Hudd failed to bring in top flight quality last summer, and so have been falling steadily.

This isn't failure, this is reality for any promoted side from the Championship that isn't on the bounce. It is simply impossible in a single transfer window to transform a Championship squad into a Premier League one, hence why season on season it is normally 2 if not all 3 of the promoted sides being relegated again. The reason this season is so hard, we are missing a financial melt down of a Sunderland or Villa etc. We are in a battle with long established PL sides who have strengthened their squads over successive years in this league. It shouldn't be a great surprise that once we reach the business end of the season, the squads with the least value overall are the ones struggling for points.

The fact does remain however, that with 14 games to go, none of the promoted sides are in the relegation zone (yet). Some would say that is far from failure that all 3 still very much have a fighting chance of staying up.

 

[grubbyhands]

If you take a look at the academic and statistical research done into the ‘New manager bounce’ theory, it can be summed up in one word, ‘Bollocks’.

Correct, exactly this.