Who do you consider Brighton's biggest rival for second spot? part 2

[whitelion]

Additions.

Ok..

 

[sir albion]

Reading and Leeds.....forget Derby,sheff w and co below as they have no chance end of....

 

[OzMike]

Huddersfield

 

[Pevenseagull]

Complacency.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Complacency.

...and they'll have to spend a lot during the transfer window.

 

[OzMike]

Huddersfield, over the last 6 games they have won 5 drawn 1, exactly the same form as the Albion, our goal difference over them for the last 6 games is +3
Not a lot in it.

 

[Audax]

Huddersfield, over the last 6 games they have won 5 drawn 1, exactly the same form as the Albion, our goal difference over them for the last 6 games is +3
Not a lot in it.

The devil here is in the detail: 3 of our 6 were against teams in the top 10 when we played them (from memory, Birmingham were still top 6, Leeds still are, and Fulham while outside the 6 have been looking pretty sharp - both their losses in the last 10 were against us, and they have a game in hand where a win puts them just outside the 6). Just 1 out of 6 from the top 10 for Huddersfield, and 3 of their 6 were against relegation prospects.

Last 6 matches can give a good view on recent form, but as illustrated above can be prone to distortion due to the fixtures schedule.. If you instead look at the last 10 (which generally gives a better mix, but still theoretically benefits Huddersfield with a much higher ratio of bottom half opponents) the standouts in terms of consistent form are us, Reading, Leeds, and Derby. We've dropped just 4 points, Reading 6 points, Leeds and Derby both 7 points. Huddersfield have dropped 12 across the ten games. If they're to challenge us, they'll need to be bagging wins against top half (and more importantly, top 6) teams, including us and Leeds back-to-back in Feb, and then Derby & Fulham back-to-back late in the season.

I'm expecting Huddersfield to fade away a bit myself. If I was a betting man, I'd go with a final top 6 looking something like this:

Autos: (in no particular order, other than I hope it's the one I've put )
Brighton
Newcastle

Play Offs: (Again, no particular order)
Leeds (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Derby (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Reading (if they can continue to confound Experimental 361's modelling)
Wednesday / Fulham / Huddersfield fight for the remaining place

Outsiders? Norwich are still a chance if they can sort themselves out. And maybe Barnsley can give it a go, with some helpful results elsewhere.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The devil here is in the detail: 3 of our 6 were against teams in the top 10 when we played them (from memory, Birmingham were still top 6, Leeds still are, and Fulham while outside the 6 have been looking pretty sharp - both their losses in the last 10 were against us, and they have a game in hand where a win puts them just outside the 6). Just 1 out of 6 from the top 10 for Huddersfield, and 3 of their 6 were against relegation prospects.

Last 6 matches can give a good view on recent form, but as illustrated above can be prone to distortion due to the fixtures schedule.. If you instead look at the last 10 (which generally gives a better mix, but still theoretically benefits Huddersfield with a much higher ratio of bottom half opponents) the standouts in terms of consistent form are us, Reading, Leeds, and Derby. We've dropped just 4 points, Reading 6 points, Leeds and Derby both 7 points. Huddersfield have dropped 12 across the ten games. If they're to challenge us, they'll need to be bagging wins against top half (and more importantly, top 6) teams, including us and Leeds back-to-back in Feb, and then Derby & Fulham back-to-back late in the season.

I'm expecting Huddersfield to fade away a bit myself. If I was a betting man, I'd go with a final top 6 looking something like this:

Autos: (in no particular order, other than I hope it's the one I've put )
Brighton
Newcastle

Play Offs: (Again, no particular order)
Leeds (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Derby (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Reading (if they can continue to confound Experimental 361's modelling)
Wednesday / Fulham / Huddersfield fight for the remaining place

Outsiders? Norwich are still a chance if they can sort themselves out. And maybe Barnsley can give it a go, with some helpful results elsewhere.

Nice analysis. And I agree 3-6-1 are adamant that readings form is a blip. Hope so! The unknown is the impact of January signings isn't it. The best models can't forecast that.

 

[Rugrat]

The devil here is in the detail: 3 of our 6 were against teams in the top 10 when we played them (from memory, Birmingham were still top 6, Leeds still are, and Fulham while outside the 6 have been looking pretty sharp - both their losses in the last 10 were against us, and they have a game in hand where a win puts them just outside the 6). Just 1 out of 6 from the top 10 for Huddersfield, and 3 of their 6 were against relegation prospects.

Last 6 matches can give a good view on recent form, but as illustrated above can be prone to distortion due to the fixtures schedule.. If you instead look at the last 10 (which generally gives a better mix, but still theoretically benefits Huddersfield with a much higher ratio of bottom half opponents) the standouts in terms of consistent form are us, Reading, Leeds, and Derby. We've dropped just 4 points, Reading 6 points, Leeds and Derby both 7 points. Huddersfield have dropped 12 across the ten games. If they're to challenge us, they'll need to be bagging wins against top half (and more importantly, top 6) teams, including us and Leeds back-to-back in Feb, and then Derby & Fulham back-to-back late in the season.

I'm expecting Huddersfield to fade away a bit myself. If I was a betting man, I'd go with a final top 6 looking something like this:

Autos: (in no particular order, other than I hope it's the one I've put )
Brighton
Newcastle

Play Offs: (Again, no particular order)
Leeds (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Derby (see above, form over last 10 shows momentum)
Reading (if they can continue to confound Experimental 361's modelling)
Wednesday / Fulham / Huddersfield fight for the remaining place

Outsiders? Norwich are still a chance if they can sort themselves out. And maybe Barnsley can give it a go, with some helpful results elsewhere.

Pretty well agree with that exept Derby (I'll be accused of getting boring about this one). The same argument you apply to Hudd's can be levelled to Derby. They've been showing good form but then only 1 of their last 10 games have been against teams in the top 10, which they drew. Their form is distorted by the opponents they've had

They also have a tough 'run in' and have to play everyone above them away from home (except Hudd's)

I wouldn't be surprised to see them falling short of play offs

 

[Machiavelli]

Pretty well agree with that exept Derby (I'll be accused of getting boring about this one). The same argument you apply to Hudd's can be levelled to Derby. They've been showing good form but then only 1 of their last 10 games have been against teams in the top 10, which they drew. Their form is distorted by the opponents they've had

They also have a tough 'run in' and have to play everyone above them away from home (except Hudd's)

I wouldn't be surprised to see them falling short of play offs

Does that mean that Norwich were outside the top half when they spanked Derby and revealed poor Schteve's depleted squad?

 

[Bozza]

After careful consideration, I've gone for Derby.

I simply don't rate Reading, I think Huddersfield will run out of steam, I can't take any team that has Chris Wood as their main striker seriously and Massive are too inconsistent.

That takes me down to Derby who do have the kind of squad to make up 12 points over half a season if we let up at all. I don't think they will, or we will, but they would still be my main threat.

 

[Biscuit]

If not Newcastle than still Derby.

They get my vote too, even after that defeat to Norwich.

Leeds don't have the strength in depth IMO. Reading have a little more experience so will do OK, but Derby have some exciting players and I can see them strengthen. I'm certain they'll put a run together.

Let's let Newcastle worry about the gap to third though, we need to just focus on maintaining the gap on Newcastle.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

After careful consideration, I've gone for Derby.

I simply don't rate Reading, I think Huddersfield will run out of steam, I can't take any team that has Chris Wood as their main striker seriously and Massive are too inconsistent.

That takes me down to Derby who do have the kind of squad to make up 12 points over half a season if we let up at all. I don't think they will, or we will, but they would still be my main threat.

12 points ?

We are not Newcastle.

14 points or 17 if we beat Cardiff in the rearranged game.

 

[Rugrat]

Does that mean that Norwich were outside the top half when they spanked Derby and revealed poor Schteve's depleted squad?

Yes they were 12th I believe. I just don't get it with Derby, going on a run of wins against mostly crap teams is nowhere near as impressive as most of those around them.

If they are going to challenge for top 2, as many seem to think, they can't afford to drop more than another 13/14 points all season, and just look at their fixture list!

If Derby are going to finish 3rd I'm declaring victory now

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Need Leeds to beat Derby, and then Albion to beat Preston.

Win our game in hand and then we'd be 20 ahead of Derby with 20 to play.

 

[Rugrat]

Need Leeds to beat Derby, and then Albion to beat Preston.

Win our game in hand and then we'd be 20 ahead of Derby with 20 to play.

Don't join in the Derby adoration!

Leeds v Derby draw please

 

[Unpopulist]

Derby have already blown automatic promotion this season. They may well catch Town and/or Reading but they're not going to make up the points necessary to finish in the top two. In fact long as Brighton don't have a major slump I don't see any of the teams below Newcastle catching you. I think two or three of the teams 2nd to 6th won't actually finish top six.

 

[Audax]

Derby should be a play offs team, but I very much doubt they'll threaten us from here (too many points back, too many tough games to come). Ideally a Leeds vs Derby draw, or I'd even be happy with a Derby win in that game. More interested in the Wednesday / Huddersfield game - that's a real tester for both of them to establish their top 6 credentials. A draw from that game would be ideal.

Realistically, no one will threaten us for a top 2 place unless we have a string of bad games. I very much doubt that will happen unless we get hit by a spate of injuries.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I wonder if this will affect things at Leeds?

[tweet]816661625730109440[/tweet]

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Come on QPLua at Reading tonight !

Also, lovely dropped points at :

Leeds v Derby ( Friday )
Massive v Huddersfield ( Saturday )