[Football] When will the Premier League play in fromnt of full houses again?

[Seasider78]

The trigger for lockdowns is usually positioned around rising hospital admissions and deaths with a need to ‘protect the NHS’. So my guess is once the at risk categories (who make up the highest numbers of those two statistics) are vaccinated those numbers will drop significantly and the rest of us will be told to get on with life with some milder controls.

So I am hoping next season will start with full capacity or at worse a 4-6 week ramp up so the Gov are not perceived to be opening the floodgates.

 

[The Fits]

This was posted by [MENTION=27279]dazzer6666[/MENTION] on the good news thread. As at yesterday, £2.92m individuals had been vaccinated.

View attachment 132482

That's total, since 8th December.
Where are you getting 3.5 million a week? So far theres been shy of 3 million since the first jab in December.

 

[dazzer6666]

That's total, since 8th December.
Where are you getting 3.5 million a week? So far theres been shy of 3 million since the first jab in December.

It was almost 300,000 yesterday as you can see. We’re nowhere near at full charge on this yet - the larger centres have yet to open (only 7 so far I think but there are due to be 50), more locations are coming on stream every day and hours are going to be extended too - all to be done as supplies increase in the next couple of weeks.

Getting from 300k per day to 500k per day doesn’t seem unreasonable at all on that basis. It’s also been reported that the vaccinations are taking longer at the moment due to the nature of those being vaccinated - that will also speed up.

 

[dazzer6666]

The government will quite rightly proceed very cautiously in lifting restrictions. Even if much of the adult population is immunised by late summer many will likely only have received their first jabs and there is still so much unknown about the ability to virus. Chris Whitty has already said he thinks restrictions will be needed next winter and looking back now restrictions were far too loose last summer. I'd like to think by the beginning of next season it'll be something like 20% capacity and with the relative success of that if there are no flare ups through the autumn we could be at something like 50% by next Spring.

50% at the end of April (ie 15 months away) is hugely, hugely pessimistic IMO and will at least mean the vacc programme has basically failed or we have a mutation that the current vaccines don’t protect against (the implications of which run far further than not having a full house at the Amex). Not much indication that will be the case.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

55 million adults in the UK, 2 million vaccinations a week, we’ll all be vaccinated by July.

Not taking account of the millions of pandemic deniers who’ll refuse the vaccines.

But at the same time we have people in sage saying restrictions for the rest of the year.

It won’t be till 2022, which of course will mean the closure of a few clubs

 

[dazzer6666]

But at the same time we have people in sage saying restrictions for the rest of the year.

It won’t be till 2022, which of course will mean the closure of a few clubs

Lots of people freaked out at Whitty’s comments on longer restrictions through to the end of the year and beyond but I think most were over-reacting. They are hinting at ‘some’ occasional restrictions - they haven’t said anything like a continuation of current restrictions. More likely regional movement between tiers IF there are infection outbreaks (which, if the vacc is administered and works as planned, shouldn’t happen). I’m expecting things like mask-wearing on the underground to be in place for example.

 

[Simster]

Assuming the vaccinations are effective (and the mutations don't cause further problems), I should think we'll see 5-10,000 crowds in time for the new season, ramping up to full houses by January 2020.

The question is, if we're relegated, how many will want to turn up in January?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Lots of people freaked out at Whitty’s comments on longer restrictions through to the end of the year and beyond but I think most were over-reacting. They are hinting at ‘some’ occasional restrictions - they haven’t said anything like a continuation of current restrictions. More likely regional movement between tiers IF there are infection outbreaks (which, if the vacc is administered and works as planned, shouldn’t happen). I’m expecting things like mask-wearing on the underground to be in place for example.

It’s not just Whitty, seems to be the go to line atm

 

[Sussexscots]

Can't see supporters being allowed back this season. I see it as inevitable that there will be problems with delivering 'unprecedented' levels of vaccination and I expect the current restrictions to be on place until May. After which we might return to a Tier system. Maybe.

Looking to next season, who knows? I'm all out of optimism. I won't be planning anything that could be cancelled at the drop of a hat. I left my ST money with the club, however, so I'm already signed up for 2021/22. But if mask wearing is still a thing, I don't want to go.

 

[A1X]

Whenever social distancing is ended. If the vaccination programme goes as planned, that could be some point this summer.

 

[Weststander]

That's total, since 8th December.
Where are you getting 3.5 million a week? So far theres been shy of 3 million since the first jab in December.

Several posters on different threads reported the leak by the Scottish government that by the end of next week the UK will be vaccinating 500,000 a day. Equating to 3.5m a week.

I didn’t say it was 3.5m this week, that’s coming shortly.

 

[Weststander]

But at the same time we have people in sage saying restrictions for the rest of the year.

It won’t be till 2022, which of course will mean the closure of a few clubs

Some people might say that, but all governments try to strike a balance of science vs economy/mental health/cancer ops/kids wellbeing & education.

If the most ardent of epidemiologists ran this, Germans, Brits, Belgians would’ve been confined in their homes Wuhan style until everyone had been vaccinated. Western nations don’t do that, independent spirited peoples would never have accepted that.

We’ll see opening up of large sectors of society from April, with a vaccinated public (except numbnut followers of Icke and Andrew Wakefield), a big crowd at our season opener against Pompey in August is a real possibility.

 

[dazzer6666]

Some people might say that, but all governments try to strike a balance of science vs economy/mental health/cancer ops/kids wellbeing & education.

If the most ardent of epidemiologists ran this, Germans, Brits, Belgians would’ve been confined in their homes Wuhan style until everyone had been vaccinated. Western nations don’t do that, independent spirited peoples would never have accepted that.

We’ll see opening up of large sectors of society from April, with a vaccinated public (except numbnut followers of Icke and Andrew Wakefield), a big crowd at our season opener against Pompey in August is a real possibility.

This. Once hospitalisations are under control and dropping, along with infection rates, and all the more vulnerable (down to the O50s) have had their first jab we’ll be on the move.

It’s all down to the vacc programme being delivered. So far, so good (despite one or two news outlets tracking down the odd GP Surgery that didn’t get a delivery).

 

[portslade seagull]

55 million adults in the UK, 2 million vaccinations a week, we’ll all be vaccinated by July.

Not taking account of the millions of pandemic deniers who’ll refuse the vaccines.

Still cannot fathom the minds of the deniers.

 

[Hamilton]

I virtually never start threads, so please be gentle with me.



Had a heated disagreement with my son today over when we can expect full houses at football again

So what chance do you think premier league football will be played in front of packed crowd again at this dates

1. start of next season?
2. january 1st 2022?
3. start of 22/23?


My guesses

1. 10%
2. 25%
3. 90%

I'm with you. I can't see full houses until we get past next winter. Outside chance that the end of the 21/22 season may see some, but I'd imagine that 22/23 will be definite.

That's if the Brazilian variant hasn't killed us all

 

[Weststander]

This. Once hospitalisations are under control and dropping, along with infection rates, and all the more vulnerable (down to the O50s) have had their first jab we’ll be on the move.

It’s all down to the vacc programme being delivered. So far, so good (despite one or two news outlets tracking down the odd GP Surgery that didn’t get a delivery).

Relieved to see several other posters such as your goodself with a positive, rational view of life in general come the spring. You see beyond the gloomy mood music of TV/radio bad news, delve further for facts and patterns, look beyond the now.

I can see why others feel gloomy, worn down by pandemic fatigue, that’s natural.

Imho the vaccines are THE game changer.

 

[Weststander]

Still cannot fathom the minds of the deniers.

Fed a diet of lies/twisting of facts on Facebook and by mates. I wouldn’t dream of going to FB for medical information.

 

[RossyG]

With the rate of vaccinations in this country, I see no reason why we can’t all be back at the Amex in August for our first game (hopefully in the PL).

 

[Official Old Man]

I'm in group 5 (over 65) and expect to be 'safe' if such a thing is possible, by this summer. But what is the age of those at the Amex? Doubt 33K permitted for at least a year. Maybe start of 21/22 it will be 33% working up to capacity around Jan 22.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Some people might say that, but all governments try to strike a balance of science vs economy/mental health/cancer ops/kids wellbeing & education.

If the most ardent of epidemiologists ran this, Germans, Brits, Belgians would’ve been confined in their homes Wuhan style until everyone had been vaccinated. Western nations don’t do that, independent spirited peoples would never have accepted that.

We’ll see opening up of large sectors of society from April, with a vaccinated public (except numbnut followers of Icke and Andrew Wakefield), a big crowd at our season opener against Pompey in August is a real possibility.

I agree, there will be a balance and Some things will open up in April but I don’t see how a packed football ground would be a major consideration.

Plus then you have the other side from the nutters you mention, those wanting to keep everything shut down.

I hope when they open it will be a percentage of the ground type thing, I never understood a fixed figure like we saw for those few weeks.