When should we panic? - Transfers Activity

[Papa Lazarou]

Decent analysis by TCB, as usual.

I know there is time left in the window and this will certainly not be the final squad. My biggest worry is that we'll leave it too late and end up panic buying at the end of the window.

The injuries to Baldock and Knockaert should really make it hit home how much we still need to strengthen. Without those two players we looked pretty average in the championship last season. Just being solid at the back won't cut it next year as teams have the quality to break you down at any moment, you have to be able to score goals.
There's also a big question around the two man centre midfield, will Stephens + Kayal/Sidwell/Norwood be able to hold things together in the middle at this level? I'm guessing sometimes yes and sometimes no depending on the opposition, but as we saw against Huddersfield last season we miss Stephens massively when he's not there. Hughton is going to need an extra man in midfield sometimes.

I would be happy with 3 more signings, as long as they're drastically better than what we have now. 1 CF, 1 CM and 1 Winger.

I agree with your analysis, although I would only be happy to start the season with 5 additions:

1 Goalkeeper
1 Right Back
1 Central Midfielder
1 Winger
1 Very Good Striker

Edit to add:

Actually to START I'd accept the current keepers... so only 4

 

[seagull_special]

Our Defence is strong and relatively established, we sign Gómez and I would be happy. Neto would have been a good signing and this is a position we are actively looking to fill and we are prepared to spend 8-12 million to fill this position. Up front is where most concerns lie. We need another winger and striker. Lua Lua was the option when AK went off injured and great player that he has been, I can't imagine him now being fit or good enough. I don't think we can rely on GM being our first choice although he will have a role to play, TH is an unknown but want even first choice last year, SB has fitness concerns and took 2 yrs to adapt to the Championship even though he had a great season last year. We would need two top class strikers vying for that one up front slot. My final concern is a reluctance to buy players with Premier league experience due to the prohibitive cost. I think we will have to bite the bullet if we want is thrive and survive. It also concerns
me that people think being a yoyo club is an option as ther is no guarantee that if we weee relegated we would come straight back up(ask Villa and Norwich) Am I panicked no but must confess to being slightly nervous but team spirit and leadership is also crucial and we have that in buckets.

 

[Marshy]

Gomez

Left winger -right footed.
Centre Mid - Left footed if possible not essential.
Striker - with pace and all round game

Done - 25 million ish

 

[WonderingSoton]

Goals are the key for a struggling team in the Premier League. We won't be keeping many clean sheets, no team in the bottom half does when you're up against quality attackers every week. So being able to hurt other teams is a must. Sadly I don't think there is a case to be made for any of our current strikers being capable of scoring more than a handful of goals in a Premier League season so we need to focus the budget on this area. We need at least two new strikers and one needs to have some form of track record of scoring goals at a good level. Anything less is just asking for trouble. Even signing one striker would be unacceptable as we need options. Plus you can't pin all your hopes on one man, find he is injured in the first month and then be relying on a 34 year old with minimal top flight experience/success to lead our attack. Even crap teams have good strikers - Watford have Deeney, Palace have Benteke, Swansea have Llorente, Bournemouth have Defoe, West Brom have Rondon etc. That's the level we need to reach. Anyone thinking Glenn Murray or Sam Baldock can do the job is sadly mistaken and we can't take a £120m gamble on them.

Excellent post. As I've said a few times and I'll keep on with it, a quality striker would make a big difference. If you can keep the opposition worried with a forward Premier League good enough to always carry a threat and keep the opposition with half an eye on him, such as those mentioned, you suddenly have two advantages: Not only are you going to score the goals to be semi competitive at least, but also you'll slightly damage their attack in the process. It helps at both ends of the pitch.

There's no doubt there's a few gaps around the squad to fill and the signings to date suggest successful 'gap plugging' to me. Carry on in that fashion and the side will hobble along, rarely being outclassed, but without ever having enough punch to win games. One quality signing in the centre forward department will transform the side. The clock is ticking, but there's plenty of time yet.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Spending to date is certainly modest, but we are still early into the window and there's a lot of jockeying taking place as players and agents are at this stage in strong negotiating positions.

Compared to spending in previous seasons for promoted clubs we are some way behind, although it could be argued that Stephens and Baldock signing new deals has saved the club £15m in transfer fees.

This is the average spend by promoted clubs in last few years on signings.

In 2015 both Watford (£64m) and Plucky Little Bournemouth (£69m) spent a lot and stayed up. Norwich spent only £35m and were relegated.

Last season both Hull and Boro were up for sale having been promoted, their chairmen were therefore reluctant to sanction the cheque book being used and both went down again.

We only need 2-3 signings IMO, Abraham was on the list and we lucked out, Delaney and Neto have both got to third base but no further.

The defence looks solid apart from needing one more full back, midfield needs one more and a striker.

TB hasn't spent £300m getting us here for a 9 month stay, so there will be more arrivals.

In relation to your specific points.

1: Yes clubs have been in receipt of large sums but have spent a lot on wages and fees. Having said that finances are way superior to the Championship.

2: Two types of FFP in EPL. (a) Losses limited to £105m over three years, and (b) A form of wage control called STCC that restricts increasing the wage bill by more than £7m + increases in commercial & matchday income + gains on player sales.

3: CH is very cautious, he won't want another Ricky Van Wolfswinkel on his hands.


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I'd agree with the overall gist of your post but bro up for sale? Not sure about that one and they did bring in a fair number of players July/Aug last year..not so sure about there quality though

 

[Machiavelli]

Good post.

Making up the 25 is a side issue. We still need several additions, bought or on loan. Ideally RB, 2 strikers, CM, RW and LW. Plus a CB if it's true that Goldson will out on loan.

I think we need:
-- a second- or, more likely, third-choice goalkeeper
-- utility defensive cover (Gomez?)
-- CM: need to spend on this
-- a right-footed winger: will need to spend big here too
-- perhaps another ACM (Brown?)
-- two rapid forwards, one of which will have to be a proven goalscorer at PL (or equivalent) level: will really need to break the transfer window on this one

This would mean that, alongside the obvious, we'd be able to offload Skalak and Hemed.

 

[Napper]

88 days ago we were promoted

66 days ago the season finished.

31 days until the first game.

4/5/6 to get

Never panic but few signs are there that this may not go as great as we all dreamed.

UPDATE

93 days ago we were promoted

71 days ago the season finished.

26 days until the first game.

4/5/6 to get ( + Knockaert and Baldock injuries to consider )

 

[Bra]

Without trying to be wise after the event the last week has proved why, in my opinion, we should have been much further forward in our recruitment by now.
With 3 weeks to go we still need recruitment in 3 key areas in cm, c.f. and wide player. Without these as others have said we will struggle to compete. Now we probably starting on the 4th choice cm after Moot, Delaney and Neto, it's very quiet on the striker front and Knockheart could be absent for a time.
I confess to worry and this needs to be a decent week. For me I was never comfortable with the we have until 31st August mantra.

 

[Weststander]

I think we need:
-- a second- or, more likely, third-choice goalkeeper
-- utility defensive cover (Gomez?)
-- CM: need to spend on this
-- a right-footed winger: will need to spend big here too
-- perhaps another ACM (Brown?)
-- two rapid forwards, one of which will have to be a proven goalscorer at PL (or equivalent) level: will really need to break the transfer window on this one

This would mean that, alongside the obvious, we'd be able to offload Skalak and Hemed.

Good post. Plus Norwood to go.

 

[pishhead]

Up until the beginning of last week I was relaxed about our dealings. Now I think I might have to start checking Amazon for adult size nappies.

 

[Nixonator]

1 week to go before my mild concern moves to real concern. Needs to be a good one.

 

[Billy the Fish]

This would mean that, alongside the obvious, we'd be able to offload Skalak and Hemed.

It's debatable whether Skalak or Hemed will be useful at the top level, personally I'm going to wait and see before I pass judgement, but simply offloading the squad that got us promoted would be a very short sighted mistake.

If we get relegated this season, which is highly likely according to the odds, we'll need all of our players who were solid performers in the championship and committed to the club.

 

[Machiavelli]

Without trying to be wise after the event the last week has proved why, in my opinion, we should have been much further forward in our recruitment by now.
With 3 weeks to go we still need recruitment in 3 key areas in cm, c.f. and wide player. Without these as others have said we will struggle to compete. Now we probably starting on the 4th choice cm after Moot, Delaney and Neto, it's very quiet on the striker front and Knockheart could be absent for a time.
I confess to worry and this needs to be a decent week. For me I was never comfortable with the we have until 31st August mantra.

I'm less worried than you are. The key issue is not when they arrive, but the quality. I've indicated what we need a few posts back. Of those, I only think we need one in before the season starts, but that is the striker. There are only three games in August, and if there is better quality and value to be found after the season starts, then that's what we'll have to accept.

 

[Machiavelli]

It's debatable whether Skalak or Hemed will be useful at the top level, personally I'm going to wait and see before I pass judgement, but simply offloading the squad that got us promoted would be a very short sighted mistake.

If we get relegated this season, which is highly likely according to the odds, we'll need all of our players who were solid performers in the championship and committed to the club.

I'm not advocating "simply offloading the squad that got us promoted". I'm advocating improving it in certain areas.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I'm not advocating "simply offloading the squad that got us promoted". I'm advocating improving it in certain areas.

You specifically said we could offload Skalak and Hemed.

Even if we do sign better players in those positions we wouldn't want to sell two internationals, because we'd only have to replace them as well.

 

[perseus]

Team seems a little unbalanced to me, overly right-sided in defence and midfield and with inverted overly left footed wingers in attack is even more pronounced.

By no means a fatal flaw but if we are going to play 4-2-3-1 another defensive midfielder would be essential or useful depending on how rate our current reserves?

Stats will say our central midfield was goal shy and we should get one who out in with a double figure goal tally like Johansen and Cairney who are both left-sided and who would complain? .

This option may not be available so getting another defensive midfielder and giving the option for Dale Stephens to push forward would be be more sound defensively (unlike Fulham).

 

[perseus]

You specifically said we could offload Skalak and Hemed.

Even if we do sign better players in those positions we wouldn't want to sell two internationals, because we'd only have to replace them as well.

We appear to have vacant position at second striker and any other new signings over 21 will mean replacements. The team selection against Dusseldorf says Lualua and Ince to go. For my mind Rohan Ince and Lualua have both shown more on the pitch than Skalák so far. But we have seen many more games from the now old timers.

Lualua does not seem to be getting the opportunities to see what he can do under CH. Rohan Ince could still be useful thinking o his man-marking role in the second half against Sanchez and Arsenal. We would be swapping them for unknowns. Tomer Hemed is essential as I'm not sure Murray's legs are going to hold out and every match will be like an away match where for both Murray and Knockaert the goals were not prolific away from home.

 

[Bra]

We appear to have vacant position at second striker and any other new signings over 21 will mean replacements. The team selection against Dusseldorf says Lualua and Ince to go. For my mind Rohan Ince and Lualua have both shown more on the pitch than Skalák so far. But we have seen many more games from the now old timers.

Lualua does not seem to be getting the opportunities to see what he can do under CH. Rohan Ince could still be useful thinking o his man-marking role in the second half against Sanchez and Arsenal. We would be swapping them for unknowns. Tomer Hemed is essential as I'm not sure Murray's legs are going to hold out and every match will be like an away match where for both Murray and Knockaert the goals were not prolific away from home.

I have to disagree here about ince and lua lua. Neither were considered good enough for the squad last year in the championship. If they are in the squad this year something has gone wrong on recruitment.

 

[Nixonator]

Lualua does not seem to be getting the opportunities to see what he can do under CH. Rohan Ince could still be useful thinking o his man-marking role in the second half against Sanchez and Arsenal. We would be swapping them for unknowns. Tomer Hemed is essential as I'm not sure Murray's legs are going to hold out and every match will be like an away match where for both Murray and Knockaert the goals were not prolific away from home.

Baffling. So we are now going to utilise players in the PL from our Championship squad that were loaned out and deemed not good enough? That doesn't sound very likely.

 

[Weststander]

You specifically said we could offload Skalak and Hemed.

Even if we do sign better players in those positions we wouldn't want to sell two internationals, because we'd only have to replace them as well.

The club shouldn't remain static, holding onto every player involved in the promotion squad, out of loyalty, whilst still paying their very significant wages.

Winstanley & co might deem that Skalak and Norwood for example won't cut it at PL level, which will raise some time transfer income and cut wages, whilst at the same bringing in better equivalent players.

Football squads evolve with contracted players leaving every summer.