When should we panic? - Transfers Activity

[El Presidente]

Agree with much of this.

I'd be really interested to hear from [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION] about if there is any good reason why some of these other 'lesser' Premier League clubs are able to spend what appears to be eye-watering sums of money if we can't or won't. Is it any/all of...

1. They've been in the PL for a few seasons now, so feel more assured in splashing the cash as relegation feels like less of an imminent threat.
2. They have uber-rich owners who are able to top up TV money with their own tens of millions of pounds (I've lost track of what, if anything, exist of FFP type stuff in the PL).
3. We're just being a bit cautious (based on estimates of spend thus far).

Spending to date is certainly modest, but we are still early into the window and there's a lot of jockeying taking place as players and agents are at this stage in strong negotiating positions.

Compared to spending in previous seasons for promoted clubs we are some way behind, although it could be argued that Stephens and Baldock signing new deals has saved the club £15m in transfer fees.

This is the average spend by promoted clubs in last few years on signings.

In 2015 both Watford (£64m) and Plucky Little Bournemouth (£69m) spent a lot and stayed up. Norwich spent only £35m and were relegated.

Last season both Hull and Boro were up for sale having been promoted, their chairmen were therefore reluctant to sanction the cheque book being used and both went down again.

We only need 2-3 signings IMO, Abraham was on the list and we lucked out, Delaney and Neto have both got to third base but no further.

The defence looks solid apart from needing one more full back, midfield needs one more and a striker.

TB hasn't spent £300m getting us here for a 9 month stay, so there will be more arrivals.

In relation to your specific points.

1: Yes clubs have been in receipt of large sums but have spent a lot on wages and fees. Having said that finances are way superior to the Championship.

2: Two types of FFP in EPL. (a) Losses limited to £105m over three years, and (b) A form of wage control called STCC that restricts increasing the wage bill by more than £7m + increases in commercial & matchday income + gains on player sales.

3: CH is very cautious, he won't want another Ricky Van Wolfswinkel on his hands.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[1892]

If it makes you feel any better (doubt it will) all the good feeling of promotion at NUFC has gone. Rumours that Rafa will walk every week as we continue to miss out on targets and make derisory offers for players. We clearly don't have money to spend. Piss poor.

 

[Nixonator]

(b) A form of wage control called STCC that restricts increasing the wage bill by more than £7m + increases in commercial & matchday income + gains on player sales.

Wait, so we cannot increase our wage bill from last season by more than £146k a week?

 

[El Presidente]

Wait, so we cannot increase our wage bill from last season by more than £146k a week?

Sorry me bad. Promoted clubs are allowed to spend £74m plus their increased commercial and matchday income.

If you're an existing PL club the £7m rule applies.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Nixonator]

Sorry me bad. Promoted clubs are allowed to spend £74m plus their increased commercial and matchday income.

If you're an existing PL club the £7m rule applies.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Average of 60k a week per player in a 25 man squad then. So if our wage bill matches/exceeds the 74M we cannot increase it by more than 7M a year?

What if our wage bill is substantially less than that?

 

[trueblue]

We need 2 new strikers otherwise we're really going to struggle

Agree. We haven't got the firepower to survive. I'd be worried if we don't bring in 2 strikers.

 

[Albion my Albion]

If Knock is truly injured for several weeks than that would be grounds for panicking

BHAFC without 2 additional quality strikers is going down.....................Aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhkkkkkk!

 

[indy3050]

I'm panicking. Pre season is well underway and we are not strong enough. Even with a few signings we face an uphill battle from here.

 

[Napper]

Still time , certainly would want to see bit of action this week.

We gained one last week but possibly lost our best player for the start so are weaker .

You have to say it hasn't gone how we expected and isn't ideal .

3 weeks Saturday / 26 days .

Got to be heavy action this week .

 

[El Presidente]

What if our wage bill is substantially less than that?

The rules don't apply from what I can see, but will have to check the small print. Even a small club such as Crystal Palace had a wage bill exceeding £80m in 2015/16, and that's before Benteke and Fat Sam joined the party.

 

[heathgate]

Still time , certainly would want to see bit of action this week.

We gained one last week but possibly lost our best player for the start so are weaker .

You have to say it hasn't gone how we expected and isn't ideal .

3 weeks Saturday / 26 days .

Got to be heavy action this week .

....added to which, we know that traditionally the Albion take at least 3 weeks to get new players up to fitness etc.....

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

[Goldstone1976]

I've been pretty blasé about the transfer activity this close season so far, barely even keeping track of Abrahamsss or Cornetto, trusting entirely in the TB/CH/PW/PB quartet. However, I've woken up this morning in a funk. For whatever reason, we seem to be behind the curve. Panic? Not yet, but considerable concern...

 

[Machiavelli]

As I said...worried? See when the transfer window shuts
Gross for Akpom an improvement but the squad(size) still not strengthened
Panicking ? Not yet, but concerned
But whatever happens just gonna enjoy every moment, waited long enough for it

The squad size has a limit of 25, so that's not the key issue. Getting the right quality is the key issue, particularly up-front, and in other advanced positions.

 

[NooBHA]

.

3: CH is very cautious, he won't want another Ricky Van Wolfswinkel on his hands.

With due respect and without going into detail.

CH does not have RVW on his hands. He was very clear from the outset that Ricky's value was nowhere near £8.5m but because Man Utd and Everton were also sniffing around at the time his value was artificially increased and Norwich dived in and bought in advance in a 6 month period prior to the Transfer Window opening - In saying that. Ricky is a very good player and in certain systems he could score a lot of goals but not in a side which will be on the back foot in the PL.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I've been pretty blasé about the transfer activity this close season so far, barely even keeping track of Abrahamsss or Cornetto, trusting entirely in the TB/CH/PW/PB quartet. However, I've woken up this morning in a funk. For whatever reason, we seem to be behind the curve. Panic? Not yet, but considerable concern...

When someone of your calm and considered demeanour is starting to get concerned I think it's time to

 

[pishhead]

Our recruitment arm is certainly in credit with regards to trusting them, however I'm sure they hoped to be a lot further down the line than they are currently.

 

[Weststander]

The squad size has a limit of 25, so that's not the key issue. Getting the right quality is the key issue, particularly up-front, and in other advanced positions.

Good post.

Making up the 25 is a side issue. We still need several additions, bought or on loan. Ideally RB, 2 strikers, CM, RW and LW. Plus a CB if it's true that Goldson will out on loan.

 

[spence]

With due respect and without going into detail.

CH does not have RVW on his hands. He was very clear from the outset that Ricky's value was nowhere near £8.5m but because Man Utd and Everton were also sniffing around at the time his value was artificially increased and Norwich dived in and bought in advance in a 6 month period prior to the Transfer Window opening - In saying that. Ricky is a very good player and in certain systems he could score a lot of goals but not in a side which will be on the back foot in the PL.

What about in La Liga ? Another top league and he failed miserably at Real Betis. It seems he is only capable of doing ok in the Dutch mickey mouse league. Awful player who can't cut it at the best leagues.

 

[Weststander]

Spending to date is certainly modest, but we are still early into the window and there's a lot of jockeying taking place as players and agents are at this stage in strong negotiating positions.

Compared to spending in previous seasons for promoted clubs we are some way behind, although it could be argued that Stephens and Baldock signing new deals has saved the club £15m in transfer fees.

This is the average spend by promoted clubs in last few years on signings.

In 2015 both Watford (£64m) and Plucky Little Bournemouth (£69m) spent a lot and stayed up. Norwich spent only £35m and were relegated.

Last season both Hull and Boro were up for sale having been promoted, their chairmen were therefore reluctant to sanction the cheque book being used and both went down again.

We only need 2-3 signings IMO, Abraham was on the list and we lucked out, Delaney and Neto have both got to third base but no further.

The defence looks solid apart from needing one more full back, midfield needs one more and a striker.

TB hasn't spent £300m getting us here for a 9 month stay, so there will be more arrivals.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Many thanks. Hard facts to dispel various myths about spending by recently promoted clubs and its non effect on survival prospects.

Another example, Burnley:

PL squad cost when relegated in 2015, just £21m. (The cautious approach, as they still made a profit of £30m). Burnley's income in the 2014/15 PL season was £79m, in contrast to the £130m we'll bank in 2017/18.

+ 2015/16 fees spend for Championship £22m
+ 2016/17 fees spend in PL return £28m. Giving a significant cumulative squad cost. They stayed up.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Decent analysis by TCB, as usual.

I know there is time left in the window and this will certainly not be the final squad. My biggest worry is that we'll leave it too late and end up panic buying at the end of the window.

The injuries to Baldock and Knockaert should really make it hit home how much we still need to strengthen. Without those two players we looked pretty average in the championship last season. Just being solid at the back won't cut it next year as teams have the quality to break you down at any moment, you have to be able to score goals.
There's also a big question around the two man centre midfield, will Stephens + Kayal/Sidwell/Norwood be able to hold things together in the middle at this level? I'm guessing sometimes yes and sometimes no depending on the opposition, but as we saw against Huddersfield last season we miss Stephens massively when he's not there. Hughton is going to need an extra man in midfield sometimes.

I would be happy with 3 more signings, as long as they're drastically better than what we have now. 1 CF, 1 CM and 1 Winger.