GNF on Tour
Registered Twunt
I might get slammed for posting this here but I thought it a damn interesting read and not something you would find in the Uk or certainly US media.
It might stimulate some interesting discussion which I am totally not going to take part in. For my pennies worth I think its bang on.
ISRAEL'S real aim is to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government. That was the aim of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It failed. But Sharon and his pupils in the military and political leadership have never really given up on it.
As in 1982, the present operation, too, was planned and is being carried out in full co-ordination with the US.
As then, there is no doubt that it is co-ordinated with a part of the Lebanese elite.
That's the main thing. Everything else is noise and propaganda.
On the eve of the 1982 invasion, US Secretary of State Alexander Haig told Sharon that, before starting, it was necessary to have a "clear provocation" which would be accepted by the world.
The provocation took place - at exactly the appropriate time - when Abu Nidal's terror gang tried to assassinate the Israeli ambassador in London. This had no connection with Lebanon and even less with the PLO, the enemy of Abu Nidal, but it served its purpose.
This time, the necessary provocation has been provided by the capture of the two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. Everyone knows that they cannot be freed except through an exchange of prisoners. But the huge military campaign that has been ready to go for months was sold to the Israeli and international public as a rescue operation.
Strangely enough, the very same thing happened two weeks earlier in the Gaza Strip. Hamas and its partners captured a soldier, which provided the excuse for a massive operation that had been prepared for a long time and whose aim is to destroy the Palestinian government.
The declared aim of the Lebanon operation is to push Hezbollah away from the border, so as to make it impossible for it to capture more soldiers and to launch rockets at Israeli towns. The invasion of the Gaza Strip is also officially aimed at getting the towns of Ashkelon and Sderot out of the range of the Qassam rockets.
That resembles the 1982 Operation Peace for Gallilee. Then, the public and the Knesset were told that the aim of the war was to "push the Katyushas 40km away from the border."
That was a deliberate lie. For 11 months before the war, not a single Katyusha rocket - nor a single shot - had been fired over the border. >From the beginning, the aim of the operation was to reach Beirut and install a quisling dictator. As I have recounted more than once, Sharon himself told me so nine months before the war and I duly published it at the time, with his consent but unattributed.
Of course, the present operation also has several secondary aims, which do not include the freeing of the prisoners. Everybody understands that that cannot be achieved by military means. But it is probably possible to destroy some of the thousands of missiles that Hezbollah has accumulated over the years.
To this end, the army chiefs are ready to endanger the inhabitants of the Israeli towns that are exposed to the rockets. They believe that that is worthwhile, like an exchange of chess figures.
Another secondary aim is to rehabilitate the "deterrent power" of the army. That is a codeword for the restoration of the army's injured pride that has suffered a severe blow from the daring military actions of Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north.
Officially, the Israeli government demands that the government of Lebanon disarm Hezbollah and remove it from the border region.
That is clearly impossible under the present Lebanese regime, a delicate fabric of ethno-religious communities. The slightest shock can bring the whole structure crashing down and throw the state into total anarchy - especially after the US succeeded in driving out the Syrian army, the only element that provided some stability.
The idea of installing a quisling in Lebanon is nothing new. In 1955, David Ben-Gurion proposed taking a "Christian officer" and installing him as dictator. Moshe Sharet showed that this idea was based on complete ignorance of Lebanese affairs and torpedoed it.
But, 27 years later, Sharon tried to put it into effect nevertheless. Bashir Gemayel was, indeed, installed as president, only to be murdered soon afterwards. His brother Amin succeeded him and signed a peace agreement with Israel, but was driven out of office. The same brother is now publicly supporting the Israeli operation.
The calculation now is that, if the Israeli air force rains heavy enough blows on the Lebanese population, paralysing ports and airports, destroying the infrastructure, bombarding residential neighbourhoods, cutting the Beirut-Damascus road etc, the public will get furious with Hezbollah and press the Lebanese government into fulfilling Israel's demands. Since the present government cannot even dream of doing so, a dictatorship will be set up with Israel's support.
That is the military logic. I have my doubts. It can be assumed that most Lebanese will react as any other people on Earth would - with fury and hatred towards the invader. That happened in 1982, when the Shi'ites in the south of Lebanon, until then as docile as a doormat, stood up against the Israeli occupiers and created Hezbollah, which has become the strongest force in the country. If the Lebanese elite now becomes tainted as collaborators with Israel, it will be swept off the map.
US policy is full of contradictions. President Bush wants "regime change" in the Middle East, but the present Lebanese regime was only recently set up under US pressure. In the meantime, Bush has succeeded only in breaking up Iraq and causing a civil war. He may get the same in Lebanon if he does not stop the Israeli army in time.
Moreover, a devastating blow against Hezbollah may arouse fury not only in Iran but also among the Shi'ites in Iraq, on whose support all of Bush's plans for a pro-US regime are built.
So, what's the answer? Not by accident, Hezbollah has carried out its soldier-snatching raid at a time when the Palestinians are crying out for succour. The Palestinian cause is popular all over the Arab word. By showing that they are a friend in need, when all other Arabs are failing dismally, Hezbollah hopes to increase its popularity. If an Israeli-Palestinian agreement had been achieved by now, Hezbollah would be no more than a local Lebanese phenomenon.
Less than three months after its formation, the Olmert-Peretz government has succeeded in plunging Israel into a two-front war, whose aims are unrealistic and whose results cannot be foreseen.
If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert hopes to be seen as Mr Macho-Macho, a Sharon No 2, he will be disappointed. The same goes for the desperate attempts of Defence Secretary Amir Peretz to be taken seriously as an imposing Mr Security. Everybody understands that this campaign - both in Gaza and in Lebanon - has been planned by the army and dictated by the army. The man who makes the decisions in Israel now is Chief of General Staff Dan Halutz. It is no accident that the job in Lebanon has been turned over to the air force, where he made his name.
The Israeli public is not enthusiastic about the war. It is resigned to it, in stoic fatalism, because it is being told that there is no alternative. Indeed, who can be against it? Who does not want to liberate the "kidnapped soldiers?" Who does not want to remove the Katyushas and rehabilitate deterrence?
No politician dares to criticise the operation except the Arab members of Parliament, who are ignored by the Jewish public. In the media, the generals reign supreme and not only those in uniform. There is almost no former general who is not being invited by the media to comment, explain and justify, all speaking in one voice.
As an illustration, Israel's most popular TV channel invited me to an interview about the war after hearing that I had taken part in an anti-war demonstration. I was quite surprised. But not for long. An hour before the broadcast, an apologetic talkshow host called and said that there had been a terrible mistake - they had meant to invite Professor Shlomo Avineri, a former director general of the Foreign Office who can be counted on to justify any act of the government, whatever it may be, in lofty academic language.
Inter arma silent musae - when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent. Or, rather, when the guns roar, the brain ceases to function.
And just a small thought. When the state of Israel was founded in the middle of a cruel war, a poster was plastered on the walls: "All the country - a front! All the people - an army!"
Fifty-eight years have passed and the same slogan is still as valid as it was then. What does that say about generations of Israeli statesmen and generals?
• Uri Avnery is an Israeli journalist, peace activist and former Knesset member. He is one of the founders of Gush Shalom, a broad-based Israeli peace group.
It might stimulate some interesting discussion which I am totally not going to take part in. For my pennies worth I think its bang on.
ISRAEL'S real aim is to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government. That was the aim of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It failed. But Sharon and his pupils in the military and political leadership have never really given up on it.
As in 1982, the present operation, too, was planned and is being carried out in full co-ordination with the US.
As then, there is no doubt that it is co-ordinated with a part of the Lebanese elite.
That's the main thing. Everything else is noise and propaganda.
On the eve of the 1982 invasion, US Secretary of State Alexander Haig told Sharon that, before starting, it was necessary to have a "clear provocation" which would be accepted by the world.
The provocation took place - at exactly the appropriate time - when Abu Nidal's terror gang tried to assassinate the Israeli ambassador in London. This had no connection with Lebanon and even less with the PLO, the enemy of Abu Nidal, but it served its purpose.
This time, the necessary provocation has been provided by the capture of the two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. Everyone knows that they cannot be freed except through an exchange of prisoners. But the huge military campaign that has been ready to go for months was sold to the Israeli and international public as a rescue operation.
Strangely enough, the very same thing happened two weeks earlier in the Gaza Strip. Hamas and its partners captured a soldier, which provided the excuse for a massive operation that had been prepared for a long time and whose aim is to destroy the Palestinian government.
The declared aim of the Lebanon operation is to push Hezbollah away from the border, so as to make it impossible for it to capture more soldiers and to launch rockets at Israeli towns. The invasion of the Gaza Strip is also officially aimed at getting the towns of Ashkelon and Sderot out of the range of the Qassam rockets.
That resembles the 1982 Operation Peace for Gallilee. Then, the public and the Knesset were told that the aim of the war was to "push the Katyushas 40km away from the border."
That was a deliberate lie. For 11 months before the war, not a single Katyusha rocket - nor a single shot - had been fired over the border. >From the beginning, the aim of the operation was to reach Beirut and install a quisling dictator. As I have recounted more than once, Sharon himself told me so nine months before the war and I duly published it at the time, with his consent but unattributed.
Of course, the present operation also has several secondary aims, which do not include the freeing of the prisoners. Everybody understands that that cannot be achieved by military means. But it is probably possible to destroy some of the thousands of missiles that Hezbollah has accumulated over the years.
To this end, the army chiefs are ready to endanger the inhabitants of the Israeli towns that are exposed to the rockets. They believe that that is worthwhile, like an exchange of chess figures.
Another secondary aim is to rehabilitate the "deterrent power" of the army. That is a codeword for the restoration of the army's injured pride that has suffered a severe blow from the daring military actions of Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north.
Officially, the Israeli government demands that the government of Lebanon disarm Hezbollah and remove it from the border region.
That is clearly impossible under the present Lebanese regime, a delicate fabric of ethno-religious communities. The slightest shock can bring the whole structure crashing down and throw the state into total anarchy - especially after the US succeeded in driving out the Syrian army, the only element that provided some stability.
The idea of installing a quisling in Lebanon is nothing new. In 1955, David Ben-Gurion proposed taking a "Christian officer" and installing him as dictator. Moshe Sharet showed that this idea was based on complete ignorance of Lebanese affairs and torpedoed it.
But, 27 years later, Sharon tried to put it into effect nevertheless. Bashir Gemayel was, indeed, installed as president, only to be murdered soon afterwards. His brother Amin succeeded him and signed a peace agreement with Israel, but was driven out of office. The same brother is now publicly supporting the Israeli operation.
The calculation now is that, if the Israeli air force rains heavy enough blows on the Lebanese population, paralysing ports and airports, destroying the infrastructure, bombarding residential neighbourhoods, cutting the Beirut-Damascus road etc, the public will get furious with Hezbollah and press the Lebanese government into fulfilling Israel's demands. Since the present government cannot even dream of doing so, a dictatorship will be set up with Israel's support.
That is the military logic. I have my doubts. It can be assumed that most Lebanese will react as any other people on Earth would - with fury and hatred towards the invader. That happened in 1982, when the Shi'ites in the south of Lebanon, until then as docile as a doormat, stood up against the Israeli occupiers and created Hezbollah, which has become the strongest force in the country. If the Lebanese elite now becomes tainted as collaborators with Israel, it will be swept off the map.
US policy is full of contradictions. President Bush wants "regime change" in the Middle East, but the present Lebanese regime was only recently set up under US pressure. In the meantime, Bush has succeeded only in breaking up Iraq and causing a civil war. He may get the same in Lebanon if he does not stop the Israeli army in time.
Moreover, a devastating blow against Hezbollah may arouse fury not only in Iran but also among the Shi'ites in Iraq, on whose support all of Bush's plans for a pro-US regime are built.
So, what's the answer? Not by accident, Hezbollah has carried out its soldier-snatching raid at a time when the Palestinians are crying out for succour. The Palestinian cause is popular all over the Arab word. By showing that they are a friend in need, when all other Arabs are failing dismally, Hezbollah hopes to increase its popularity. If an Israeli-Palestinian agreement had been achieved by now, Hezbollah would be no more than a local Lebanese phenomenon.
Less than three months after its formation, the Olmert-Peretz government has succeeded in plunging Israel into a two-front war, whose aims are unrealistic and whose results cannot be foreseen.
If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert hopes to be seen as Mr Macho-Macho, a Sharon No 2, he will be disappointed. The same goes for the desperate attempts of Defence Secretary Amir Peretz to be taken seriously as an imposing Mr Security. Everybody understands that this campaign - both in Gaza and in Lebanon - has been planned by the army and dictated by the army. The man who makes the decisions in Israel now is Chief of General Staff Dan Halutz. It is no accident that the job in Lebanon has been turned over to the air force, where he made his name.
The Israeli public is not enthusiastic about the war. It is resigned to it, in stoic fatalism, because it is being told that there is no alternative. Indeed, who can be against it? Who does not want to liberate the "kidnapped soldiers?" Who does not want to remove the Katyushas and rehabilitate deterrence?
No politician dares to criticise the operation except the Arab members of Parliament, who are ignored by the Jewish public. In the media, the generals reign supreme and not only those in uniform. There is almost no former general who is not being invited by the media to comment, explain and justify, all speaking in one voice.
As an illustration, Israel's most popular TV channel invited me to an interview about the war after hearing that I had taken part in an anti-war demonstration. I was quite surprised. But not for long. An hour before the broadcast, an apologetic talkshow host called and said that there had been a terrible mistake - they had meant to invite Professor Shlomo Avineri, a former director general of the Foreign Office who can be counted on to justify any act of the government, whatever it may be, in lofty academic language.
Inter arma silent musae - when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent. Or, rather, when the guns roar, the brain ceases to function.
And just a small thought. When the state of Israel was founded in the middle of a cruel war, a poster was plastered on the walls: "All the country - a front! All the people - an army!"
Fifty-eight years have passed and the same slogan is still as valid as it was then. What does that say about generations of Israeli statesmen and generals?
• Uri Avnery is an Israeli journalist, peace activist and former Knesset member. He is one of the founders of Gush Shalom, a broad-based Israeli peace group.
