[Albion] Villa v Albion - the xG thread

[Bozza]

First of all, if you put no value on xG at all, please respectfully move on - there's really no need to share that opinion, again.

Now that's done...

Slightly strange xG output from yesterday, ya think?

xG Philosophy: Villa 1.96 - 1.86 Albion
Understat: Villa 1.91 - 1.73 Albion
FBRef: Villa 1.6 - 1.7 Albion
Opta (tweet below): Villa 1.49 - 1.72 Albion



And none of these models will include the first-half opportunity where March got played through, but couldn't bring the ball under control, and failed to get a shot away.

As you'll see from the Opta tweet above, Villa's six goals yesterday is the second-highest xG over-perform in the Premier League since these stats have been compiled.

I'm not surprised that our xG is c1.5-2.0 - the Estupinan, March and Fati chances were all decent, but I'm surprised that Villa's is as low as it is.

 

[Horses Arse]

It did seem like everything they hit went in, similar to how I felt about our 3-1 against Newcastle.

 

[dwayne]

It did seem like everything they hit went in, similar to how I felt about our 3-1 against Newcastle.

Or wolves away !! We've massively overachieved our xg this season. There was an article somewhere that has us as the biggest overachievers of xg in the league after the bmuff match (Chelsea being the biggest underachievers) .....I remember thinking then that we were due a reversion to mean and a slide down the table.

 

[London Irish]

Yes the xG should be another factor calming everyone down a bit. Watkins had a freakish day, we had a freakish day with errors. Let’s just move on

 

[dwayne]

Yes the xG should be another factor calming everyone down a bit. Watkins had a freakish day, we had a freakish day with errors. Let’s just move on

Or read above . .. weve generally overachieved xg massively this season and are due a correction.

 

[American Seagle]

It highlights how terrible we were defensively yesterday. We have also been overachieving offensively this season. People do seem the get very blinded by the final score. Our performances have not been as good as the scorelines suggest this season.

 

[albionalex]

We also out xG'd Everton when we lost 5-1.

 

[London Irish]

Or read above . .. weve generally overachieved xg massively this season and are due a correction.

Happy to confirm I had already read your one calm post about yesterday

 

[El Turi]

It highlights how terrible we were defensively yesterday. We have also been overachieving offensively this season. People do seem the get very blinded by the final score. Our performances have not been as good as the scorelines suggest this season.

True but it also shows our performance yesterday wasn’t as bad as the scoreline suggested. It was one of those days where every shot they hit found the corner.

 

[nwgull]

It highlights how terrible we were defensively yesterday. We have also been overachieving offensively this season. People do seem the get very blinded by the final score. Our performances have not been as good as the scorelines suggest this season.

When you have a much lower xG against than actual goals conceded, it’s the keeper that it reflects badly on.

 

[albionalex]

When you have a much lower xG against than actual goals conceded, it’s the keeper that it reflects badly on.

Over a season, yes. One game is too small of a sample size.

 

[Sea Cider]

Over a season, yes. One game is too small of a sample size.

Interested to know your reasoning behind this - why does it not apply to one game?

 

[zefarelly]

TB has build the club on stats, and these things do matter and make a difference.

However, getting found out, doing a job, having a plan B and C are also legitimate 'things'

no Arm waving required . . . impariamo da questo e andiamo avanti

 

[nwgull]

Over a season, yes. One game is too small of a sample size.

Interested to know your reasoning behind this - why does it not apply to one game?

To be fair I agree with this. As far as stats are concerned, the bigger sample is more accurate. However, I started having a look at our xGA last year when Steele first established himself and it wasn’t favourable then. I haven’t examined this season’s so far, but yesterday’s +4 actual goals won’t help.

For comparison, in the season when Ryan was replaced about 10 or so games in (when it felt like every shot against us was going in) our actual goals conceded were +6 in comparison to xGA.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I mentioned it in yesterday's match thread. They shoot, they score. We didn't. Freakish result but adding to a sticky run.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Interested to know your reasoning behind this - why does it not apply to one game?

If you toss a coin 5 times and it comes up heads every time it doesn't mean it's a two headed coin. 30ish odds... Possible

If you toss it 50 times and it comes up as heads every time it is almost certainly a two headed coin. 16 digits long (I think)

That's how sample size works.

 

[Sheebo]

True but it also shows our performance yesterday wasn’t as bad as the scoreline suggested. It was one of those days where every shot they hit found the corner.

It was indeed and it was one of those - one to just move on from as the scoreline is ridiculous. I thought we were poor and deserved to lose by 2-3 but also thought there were 2 clear VAR decisions against us and a clear second yellow the ref bottles that really didn’t help. One of those days where everything went against us and inept officials with no backbone are included in that. Dust ourselves down and move on from it. 6-1 is the same as 2-1 so just forget it.

And yes we were very poor defensively yesterday, Villa and Watkins were superb (they have a much bigger budget than us remember) and the defeat was deserved.

 

[Elbow750]

Yes, a surprising low XG for Villa, and if I'm honest a bit high for us?

We were unlucky with the Pervis deflection and 2 VAR decisions should have ruled out another two. Credit to Watkins, he played really well, meaning we should have lost by 3-1 or 3-2 if March had slotted his header.

We will play worse and win though.

 

[Sheebo]

Yes, a surprising low XG for Villa, and if I'm honest a bit high for us?

We were unlucky with the Pervis deflection and 2 VAR decisions should have ruled out another two. Credit to Watkins, he played really well, meaning we should have lost by 3-1 or 3-2 if March had slotted his header.

We will play worse and win though.

We were decent first 10 or 15 I thought. We weren’t great against Bmouth, Wolves or Luton yet won them all. We were poor against AEK but we’re the better team. We were dire defensively yesterday but it wasn’t a 6-1. It’s a funny old league with very fine lines between success and capitulation.

 

[albionalex]

Interested to know your reasoning behind this - why does it not apply to one game?

I could give you a very long answer to this, but in short, in one game there can be a random/freakish occurrence.