[Albion] Villa v Albion - the xG thread

[albionalex]

To be fair I agree with this. As far as stats are concerned, the bigger sample is more accurate. However, I started having a look at our xGA last year when Steele first established himself and it wasn’t favourable then. I haven’t examined this season’s so far, but yesterday’s +4 actual goals won’t help.

For comparison, in the season when Ryan was replaced about 10 or so games in (when it felt like every shot against us was going in) our actual goals conceded were +6 in comparison to xGA.

Last season Steele has post shot xG of -1.5 (so basically, he let in 1.5 more goals than 'expected').

That ranked him 22nd out of 39 eligible goalkeepers and was better than the likes of Ramsdale, Sanchez and Ederson.

 

[Milano]

IMO Steele was at fault for 1 goal yesterday.
Webster was at fault for all 3 goals v West Ham and he played a negative part in 3 of Villa’s goals yesterday. He lacks composure, commits himself or goes to ground too easily, turns his back on shots/crosses too frequently, he reminds me of Dunk circa 2015, right now we look a more settled and controlled team without Webster in it.

 

[Pevenseagull]

I could give you a very long answer to this, but in short, in one game there can be a random/freakish occurrence.

Losing 2-0 to a team that didn't have a shot on target comes to mind.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39597355

(Both shots Alex Pritchard)

 

[Uter]

I'm not surprised that our xG is c1.5-2.0 - the Estupinan, March and Fati chances were all decent, but I'm surprised that Villa's is as low as it is.

I guess the OG had 0xG, so that might partially explain it.

Comparing this season to last, our (UnderStat) xGA has gone from the 4th best, to the 7th worst, which is concerning. It's gone from 1.3 per game to 1.8. We need to improve or we can forget about the Champions League next season.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I guess the OG had 0xG, so that might partially explain it.

Comparing this season to last, our (UnderStat) xGA has gone from the 4th best, to the 7th worst, which is concerning. It's gone from 1.3 per game to 1.8. We need to improve or we can forget about the Champions League next season.

Well yes, and even without looking at the stats, just watching us for 10 mins should be enough to let you know that we're alarmingly open and some days we're going to get hammered.

But i'm not too stressed about the Villa game. We've got a great record of bouncing back from disappointing results

I actually think RDZ will temper the rotation a little bit more from now on

 

[American Seagle]

When you have a much lower xG against than actual goals conceded, it’s the keeper that it reflects badly on.

Not necessarily. It can also indicate the defending of the shot is poor as well.

 

[HeaviestTed]

It was indeed and it was one of those - one to just move on from as the scoreline is ridiculous. I thought we were poor and deserved to lose by 2-3 but also thought there were 2 clear VAR decisions against us and a clear second yellow the ref bottles that really didn’t help. One of those days where everything went against us and inept officials with no backbone are included in that. Dust ourselves down and move on from it. 6-1 is the same as 2-1 so just forget it.

And yes we were very poor defensively yesterday, Villa and Watkins were superb (they have a much bigger budget than us remember) and the defeat was deserved.

It makes me wonder if the bookies consider the refs for each game and adjust the odds accordingly - is one ref more likely to favour one side or another?