Two weeks to go - how are you voting in the EU referendum? - Leave or Remain?

[Murray 17]

But I expect Leave will mean little tangible change in immigration numbers

I've never really understood this theory. 180000 people come here every year from EU countries, and unless they are known terrorists, we can do nothing to stop them. If we leave the EU we can choose to stop them. How can that not affect immigration numbers?

 

[RustyKent]

If you watched the debate programmes and QT this week these figures have already been established, ie £350m GROSS.

Wouldn't a more reasoned debate be had by using the net figure?

I'm undecided BTW, but when each side exaggerates it makes it difficult to decide. I think this is the biggest lie out there.

 

[5ways]

Sterling has weakened against the dollar since 2014..... before Brexit.

At the turn of the year, markets believed rates would rise this October. Now they think rates will remain on hold until the end of the decade. This has contributed to the weakening of the pound.

What does it mean for households and businesses?

For holidaymakers, it's bad news. A weaker pound means Britons will get less bang for their buck overseas.
A weaker pound also means UK businesses have to pay more for goods they buy in foreign currencies, making imports more expensive. These higher costs could fuel domestic inflation.
For exporters, the news is brighter. A weaker pound makes their goods more competitive, boosting growth. Manufacturers have complained in recent years that the strong pound has hurt trade.
Will the pound fall further?

Experts think so.

Deutsche Bank said late last year that the pound was one of the most overvalued currencies in the world. It believes sterling will drop to $1.28 against the greenback by the end of this year.

Citi believes the pound could fall to as low as $1.35 against the dollar, while Saxo Bank believes it will drop to $1.30 by the end of this year.

This ISN'T JUST BECAUSE OF BREXIT risks. Economists believe Britain's large current account deficit, which measures the difference between money flowing in and out of the UK, has left Britain vulnerable to shocks.

"This ISN'T JUST BECAUSE OF BREXIT risks. Economists believe Britain's large current account deficit, which measures the difference between money flowing in and out of the UK, has left Britain vulnerable to shocks."

Wanna know what's going to happen when we Brexit to the deficit?

"Of greater concern in financial markets is the possibility of a sudden outflow of money from the UK, which could make the country’s current account deficit of 5 per cent of national income difficult to finance.
“Given the clear economic risks [in the event of a vote to leave the EU], markets would likely demand a considerably higher risk premium on the huge capital inflows required to finance that deficit,” says Neville Hill of Credit Suisse. “That would mean a sharp fall in sterling and the price of UK assets.”"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html

Yes! The outflow of cash already taken place will turn into a flood, our borrowing rates will shoot up, the pound will crash and the deficit will balloon. To fund the greater deficit this will require higher taxes or more austerity. Nice. Remember the IFS said that Brexit was equivalent to two more years austerity. Brilliant.

 

[5ways]

If you watched the debate programmes and QT this week these figures have already been established, ie £350m GROSS.

Still a lie then.

 

[seagull_in_malaysia]

Great news, I have a lump of cash I've been waiting to convert to GBP at a better rate


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[Soulman]

Still a lie then.

How do you work that out. The figure is £350m Gross, this has been established.... Gross, before taking out the rebates. As was stated, if you go for a job you see the Gross figures. Do you not understand what gross means. So no lie, just stating gross.

 

[Sorrel]

Wouldn't a more reasoned debate be had by using the net figure?

I'm undecided BTW, but when each side exaggerates it makes it difficult to decide. I think this is the biggest lie out there.

Yes, I don't know why they decided to go with it. It just makes their campaign appear to be based on a lie.

And it's mostly pointless as we're bound to continue giving money to the EU in one form or another whatever happens. Either via paying into the single market to be part of it or via import duties if we're not.

 

[Soulman]

"
Yes! The outflow of cash already taken place will turn into a flood, our borrowing rates will shoot up, the pound will crash and the deficit will balloon. To fund the greater deficit this will require higher taxes or more austerity. Nice. Remember the IFS said that Brexit was equivalent to two more years austerity. Brilliant.

This is "fact" is it, no proof because it is just opinion and scaremongering. Ok, you want Remain, i get it, but please stop putting up scenarios that have not taken place.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I've never really understood this theory. 180000 people come here every year from EU countries, and unless they are known terrorists, we can do nothing to stop them. If we leave the EU we can choose to stop them. How can that not affect immigration numbers?

We can at least roll back the whole immigration system in this country, treat everyone the same and put in a new system fit for purpose. That is the thorn in the side of Remain, they have no answers on free movement. They can spin it all they like, but when the country is going through austerity cuts British people suffer first, the wages stagnate, towns get busier and the services British people have paid for years before become harder to access, which then effects our own quality of life. It is not right and it is not fair on British people, and then when they tell us we can't stop free movement, it is at this point we question democracy, the costs to the EU every week, and the difference bringing this money back would make.

 

[Sorrel]

I've never really understood this theory. 180000 people come here every year from EU countries, and unless they are known terrorists, we can do nothing to stop them. If we leave the EU we can choose to stop them. How can that not affect immigration numbers?

It could, but economic impact by trying to control numbers by preventing EU inward migration is going to occur as other countries will take retaliatory measures. I would think that the government - whatever the makeup unless it's 100% UKIP (which it won't be) - will step back from any activity that is going to cause that kind of reaction. So I would guess that on a Leave vote EU immigration remains the same as it is now for several more years.

 

[5ways]

How do you work that out. The figure is £350m Gross, this has been established.... Gross, before taking out the rebates. As was stated, if you go for a job you see the Gross figures. Do you not understand what gross means. So no lie, just stating gross.

Firstly - "The sum of £350m a week is based on the Treasury’s estimation of the gross amount the UK contributed to the EU last year, which was £17.8bn, or £342m a week."

So Leave have rounded up by a few million.

Secondly - The £350 gross figure is a figure created out of nothing. It is fantasised. This is because the £350 million figure is calculated although the rebate doesn't exist. The rebate does exist and is £4.9 billion.

Thirdly - The rebate is deducted before any payment is made. This means this money imagined by Leave never leaves the UK. We do not send £350m a week and get some back. We do not send that amount at all. The Treasury says we send less than 100m a week

Fourthly - We in turn have money spent by the EU in the UK. About £1.4b.

"Deduct both the rebate (£4.9bn), which is never actually paid, and the money that is paid but sent back (£5.8bn), from the gross £17.8bn annual “membership fee” and you arrive at a net figure of £7.1bn. This equates to £136m a week, less than 40% of the amount splashed on the battlebus." http://www.theguardian.com/politics...23/does-the-eu-really-cost-the-uk-350m-a-week

Leave is lying to people by saying we send £350m a week to Brussels. We don't. It is factually untrue. It is a lie.

 

[Sorrel]

"Deduct both the rebate (£4.9bn), which is never actually paid, and the money that is paid but sent back (£5.8bn), from the gross £17.8bn annual “membership fee” and you arrive at a net figure of £7.1bn. This equates to £136m a week, less than 40% of the amount splashed on the battlebus." http://www.theguardian.com/politics...23/does-the-eu-really-cost-the-uk-350m-a-week

I was trying to work out why Leave had used the figure so much and I wondered whether - if a leave results from the vote - the government would agree to pay £136 million a week or so to retain access to the market and the Leave group wanted to make out this was some kind of victory.

 

[yxee]

I think the key point is that the & £350m a week figure is a fabrication by the Leave campaign.

No, you are deliberately misunderstanding the difference between gross and net to score a political point.


We owe then £350m gross. That is mandatory.

They pay us £100m back. That is discretionary.

I want to vote against that discretion. So performing a simple subtraction is MISSING THE POINT.

 

[heathgate]

The idea that Scotland will vote to leave the UK in the event of Brexit is completely ridiculous. If they did, they would have to join the Euro, with all the joy that brings.

Simply another absurd scare story.

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[Murray 17]

We can at least roll back the whole immigration system in this country, treat everyone the same and put in a new system fit for purpose. That is the thorn in the side of Remain, they have no answers on free movement. They can spin it all they like, but when the country is going through austerity cuts British people suffer first, the wages stagnate, towns get busier and the services British people have paid for years before become harder to access, which then effects our own quality of life. It is not right and it is not fair on British people, and then when they tell us we can't stop free movement, it is at this point we question democracy, the costs to the EU every week, and the difference bringing this money back would make.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Flex Your Head]

 

[gregbrighton]

The NSC Out vote is still getting a thrashing. It's looking grim for them!

 

[yxee]

^^^ So pathetic.


Here's the plan: we do exactly what we already do and enjoy our lives.

From the way people talk you'd think we're trying to shift the British Isles into the middle of the Atlantic and start trading with the dolphins.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

To continue the analogy, we are drinking in a French bar, we will go back to a real ale house and end up standing outside a fish and chips shop.

View attachment 75643

 

[yxee]

View attachment 75643

Vote leave:

... we get a taxi home, go to bed and wake up thinking "why did I go to that club in the first place?"