[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Is it PotG?]

For me, the Lib Dems need to learn from the last Aussie GE. Position themselves as the "integrity & pro-green" alternative for the forward-thinking voter on the right and target the seats likely to have that sort of demographic. "Teal Independents" did it so well in Aus, there's a blueprint to be followed. If that means leaving Labour an open goal in a lot of seats, then do it. But, IMO, there's a lot of votes for the Lib Dems to win targeting that centre-right pro-green demographic and could see them have a lot of success in seats that are generally no-go zones for Labour and the Greens.

What's in it for them if Labour gain a majority?

 

[Machiavelli]

Do you feel that a possible Lab/Lib Dem coalition could provide an effective government?

A long time ago I put a bet on a Lib/Lab coalition, and on a Lab minority govt. The odds on the former were much better than on the latter. Noises from inside the Lib Dems is that they won't go into a coalition with anyone, as they were so badly stung by the last one, but would be willing to do confidence and supply.
You do ask about coalition and effective govt: from where I'm sitting, the last effective govt was the coalition (not that I agreed with most of what it did), and that's even given that the last 3 PMs have had big HoC majorities, but that hasn't made them effective.

 

[Stato]

Tories have leaked research suggesting that they are going to lose both, but this is a well used tactic to manage expectation. In reality, they are odds on favourites to win Dorries' seat in Mid Beds because the opposition vote is split between Labour and the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take Tamworth - the 142nd safest tory seat at the last election: https://londonlovesbusiness.com/tor...n-with-labour-frontrunners-for-tamworth-seat/

The government will be claiming success if they lose only the one where they had a 20,000 majority, but sneak home in the one where they had a 25,000 majority. That's madness. They didn't even lose Mid Beds in 1997. It was ranked 129th safest of their seats at the 2019 election. If they were to lose, it would be a massive shock and an indication of potentially winning only about 100 seats at the next election.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Most recent poll I saw for mid-beds had tories winning on less votes than both Labour and Lib Dems. Good ol' first past the post.

Surely if the Tories get fewer votes than labour and the lib dems they come third?

If you mean than labour plus the liberals combined, then that's showbusiness. The tories are the de facto winners.

I mean, what would be fairer, having half a labour and half a liberal MP, on some sort of timeshare, and no tory? How would that be fair? The tories win, and they get no MP? Really? How is that fair?

I am sure someone with a PhD in political sophistry will be along in a minute to explain how we could have asked all the voters who their second preference would be, give half a vote for each second preference, and then end up with a labour MP!. But what if the tory voters don't want to vote for another party? They should be given the right to give their extra half a vote to the tory candidate, not made to abstain. Then the tory candidate would win. Which would be fair.

We elect the candidate preferred by more people than any of the other candidates. How is this unfair?

The only 'fair solution that allows all the voters to get a representative into parliament would be for each constituency to return, say, 5 MPs, out of a longer list of candidates, with each party allowed up to, say, five candidates. That way, in the present case, you may get 3 tories, one labour and one liberal returned.

OK I know that if the liberal plus labour vote exceeds the tory vote then the 3:1:1 ratio would be unfair. But to make it exactly fair would therefore require a minimum of ten MPs returned in the constituency (and every other) so with ten candidates per party, we could have 3 liberals, 3 labour and 4 tory MPs returned (and 3 plus 3 is bigger than 4; jobzagoodun).

But what about the minor parties? Shouldn't they get some parliamentary representation? Snot fair if they don't. Innit.

The only way to do that is to not elect MPs directly but have your vote carried into a regional pot, and then have MPs elected across a small number of larger constituencies, like we did for European elections (remember them? Me neither). So in the south east there could be 100 labour candidates, 100 tory candidates and so on, with maybe a total of 75 MPs returned, with each voter getting 75 votes, with the top 75 candidates elected. Sort of like the Eurovision song contest voting scheme.

f***ing madness.

I want to know the weft of the individual I will be returning to Westminster. If my preferred candidate loses, fair enough. But I want me and the other electors to know the smell and attitude of the winner. I want to be able to campaign against him/her next time, and watch the bastard like a hawk when they try to represent me in parliament. I can't do that with a mixed bag of 75 arseholes. Or even three arseholes. Yep, with any system other that what we have now, we will become increasingly disconnected from whoever we return. We are not dutiful Germans. We are maverick, demanding Brits..

Anyway, sick and tired of the arguments. We will never ditch FTPTP until labour or tories realize they can never again achieve a majority without electoral 'reform'.

Which is why the Liberals are all over it. Fancy that!

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A long time ago I put a bet on a Lib/Lab coalition, and on a Lab minority govt. The odds on the former were much better than on the latter. Noises from inside the Lib Dems is that they won't go into a coalition with anyone, as they were so badly stung by the last one, but would be willing to do confidence and supply.
You do ask about coalition and effective govt: from where I'm sitting, the last effective govt was the coalition (not that I agreed with most of what it did), and that's even given that the last 3 PMs have had big HoC majorities, but that hasn't made them effective.

Yes but that's because all the ****s we have had since have been a useless shower of raving incompetents and arseholes.

 

[A1X]

On the by-elections, I expect the Tories to win both despite big swings against and much angst about tactical voting to follow, especially in Mid-Beds. They’re two of their safest seats going.

 

[Machiavelli]

Yes but that's because all the ****s we have had since have been a useless shower of raving incompetents and arseholes.

You might say that. I couldn't possibly comment

 

[A1X]

It’s been washed away by other news, but some of the stuff continuing to come out of the COVID Inquiry remains awful

 

[The Clamp]

When I saw Sunak was visiting Israel I thought “why”?

What possible use could that utter moron be to anyone in a war zone?

Who would be happy to see that fuckwit turn up?

Just sign the aid cheques from beside your pool.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I posted this on the by-elections thread but it’s so good that it deserves to be posted again.

 

[Nobby]

Peter Boneo is also at risk now - our local upstanding member
Wish we could get the lot of them to lose their jobs right now and not in over a years time. Then they can all feck off to the their highly paid consultancies

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Some of the comments are tremendous though. Music by 'Far Right Said Fred' and 'SS Club 7'

Nazi-Z Top?

 

[Chicken Run]

Most recent poll I saw for mid-beds had tories winning on less votes than both Labour and Lib Dems. Good ol' first past the post.

Yeah good ol first past the post

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It’s been washed away by other news, but some of the stuff continuing to come out of the COVID Inquiry remains awful

Edmunds was one of the first to suggest heard immunity, which is frowned upon it seems.

Just a load of people covering their backs, sage notes released show they delayed the lockdown at the start.

That's not suggesting the Government were poor (which ever side of the fence you sit) but this is just a giant waste of time and money.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sunak clearly as popular as a fart in a space suit, on the day he was revealed to have been named “Dr Death” by the Covid enquiry.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Coward.

 

[abc]

I hope now Starmer will have the confidence to finalise and lay out every proposed policy that makes up his vision for the country. Not so much to inform us why we should vote labour (thats a done deal now) but so they they can hit the ground running on day one.

 

[Machiavelli]

I hope now Starmer will have the confidence to finalise and lay out every proposed policy that makes up his vision for the country. Not so much to inform us why we should vote labour (thats a done deal now) but so they they can hit the ground running on day one.

That's what happens in a election campaign via a manifesto. They can always know what's going in it, and what they're going to do, well in advance of that. They've also shared much of what will go in that manifesto already.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I doubt very much that Labour need many seats in Scotchland for a healthy majority in the election next year but they’ll get them as the SNP are shot. The Tories will be destroyed.

Reform UK are starting to do very well and seemed to have lured a lot of the ‘uneducated nationalists’ away from the Tories in these two by elections.

Now over to you Starmer. Stop pandering to the right wing press (of which we know you are terrified). You really can’t lose the next election. Ignore the Mail, Sun and Express.

Time to be bold.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Coward.

Rats fleeing the building.