[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[nicko31]

itĺl be a lab / lib / SNP coalition

The Tory will

there's no other right wing party, the Tories mopped up all the UKipers, even the BNP vote Tory now. Tehy win power by being the single party with most votes under unfair FPTP voting system, if you look at all the votes in a general election most are for left or centre left but Tories still get in

I actually think Tice and possibly Farage in tow could still do the Tories a lot of damage.

They only need 5 or 6 percent and they’re looking very screwed in a number of seats.

 

[The Clamp]

Even Starmer and the Unions can't blow this lead.

Don’t count on it. If the Tory’s can convince enough people that Aunty Flo wouldn’t have died if the NHS had been privatised, they have a better than good chance of winning.

 

[clapham_gull]

there's no other right wing party, the Tories mopped up all the UKipers, even the BNP vote Tory now. Tehy win power by being the single party with most votes under unfair FPTP voting system, if you look at all the votes in a general election most are for left or centre left but Tories still get in

As if ten years of New Labour didn't happen. You only have to score more goals than the other side.

Blair managed to persuade the middle classes their house prices would be ok, but the game is now different.

That's why Starmer is trying so desperately hard to appease traditional Labour voters who voted Brexit and had "traditional views" regarding issues such as immigration.

.. and not caring that much that he annoying the leftish elements in that party.

The Conservatives have also retreated into a just concentrate on the core vote mode. They haven't got anywhere else to go. They know internally the game is up and now the strategy is to hold into as many seats as they can.

 

[A1X]

 

[clapham_gull]

Don’t count on it. If the Tory’s can convince enough people that Aunty Flo wouldn’t have died if the NHS had been privatised, they have a better than good chance of winning.

Over a long period yes, but they are already in that bat shit bonkers mode they enter (and both parties do) on losing power.

Who knows what is going in internally, but normally Zahawi would have gone. Sunak isn't going to win the next election, so possibly there will be one more throw of the dice.

A company can sack the board, but the Tories have only got what they have to play with and it's really not very good.

 

[clapham_gull]

there's no other right wing party, the Tories mopped up all the UKipers, even the BNP vote Tory now. Tehy win power by being the single party with most votes under unfair FPTP voting system, if you look at all the votes in a general election most are for left or centre left but Tories still get in

They took the below seat from labour even though technically less people voted tory (if you add Tory and UKIP together) and more people voted for left parties

I understand how FPTP works and it's unfairness, but when a Government becomes so embroiled in scandal it's usually on the way out.

It's cuts through issues of left and right.

The only thing the Tories have is time on their hands to hope the scandals go away, but between now and the next election there are number of inquiries to be held.

I'd be amazed if they aren't demolished at the next election. Their best chance would be to purge their extremist wings with an influx of new candidates and hope Starmer drowns in the economic mess they have left him.

 

[vegster]

At least us Brits do decent political scandals
BBC News - Swedish PM in hot water over eel fishing scandal

Swedish PM in hot water over eel fishing scandal

Ulf Kristersson is criticised after hiring an aide who had broken poaching laws and misled police.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bodian]

Not sure Zahawi’s claim that the tax issue was carelessness can have credibility. Are we saying that someone that wealthy doesn’t have a tax accountant who can advise on the correct course of action.

'Carelessness' - in being found out presumably!

 

[nicko31]

Interesting to see if this gains any traction in the media, I'd say not. Just too much going on at once

 

[clapham_gull]

Interesting to see if this gains any traction in the media, I'd say not. Just too much going on at once

If you read the longer version of events in the link https://theintercept.com/2022/10/19/russia-hack-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin/

It's similar to previous "hacks" where so much information is available it's going to take a while for stories to come out.

 

[rippleman]

Just beggars belief really.

Zahawi paid no tax on £27m (TWENTY SEVEN MILLION POUNDS) of his income. And when he's found out, he gets away with it, by paying a penalty on the grounds that he was careless and not fraudulent.
And through it all, he lies to the press, and threatens legal action against the people who found him out.

Us ordinary mortals would have had the book (and probably jail) thrown at us.

But he still remains the Chairman of the Condervative Party.

A Party, that as we stand, would still have over 30% of the electorate vote for it.

As I say, beggars belief really

If somebody "forgot" to declare £27M of taxable income on their Tax Return it can hardly be deemed to be a "careless" act. You don't forget £27m!

It also must have been "deliberate" - for the same reason. It also seems likely that this will have been a "prompted disclosure" (ie HMRC contacts the taxpayer rather than the taxpayer approaching HMRC and saying "oooops. I forgot to declare £27m").

If the omission from the Tax Return was "deliberate, concealed and prompted" you would typically expect a penalty in the range of 30% to 100% of the tax due. Much depends if he took "reasonable care" to ensure his tax return was accurate - and we can be sure he didn't.

Given the tax at stake, there might be an expectation that he would have been prosecuted. HMRC has had taxpayers put in jail for fiddling less than the tax at stake on £27m. I really would like to know the rate of penalty HMRC charged on the settlement.

But at end of the day, the fella is an untrustworthy crook and slippery Sunak just doesn't have the balls to sack him.

 

[The Lemming Stomper]

How the absolute f*** are these filthy pieces of toe rag still in charge ? Criminals running the country for their own gains

 

[Change at Barnham]

I'd be interested to know what the threshold is for the amount of non-payment of tax that results in a jail term.

They didn't seem to dodge the issue with Lester Piggott or Ken Dodd.

 

[rippleman]

I'd be interested to know what the threshold is for the amount of non-payment of tax that results in a jail term.

They didn't seem to dodge the issue with Lester Piggott or Ken Dodd.

18 months porridge for defrauding the Crown out of £171K

Take-away boss jailed for fraudulent tax returns and benefit claims | The Crown Prosecution Service

www.cps.gov.uk

12 months for evading tax of £91K

Self-employed plumber jailed for tax evasion - Chartered Accountants and Business Advisers in Salisbury

A man has been jailed for 12 months for evading £91,000 of income tax and national insurance during ten years of trading as a self-employed plumber. David Williams, 53, was sentenced on 27 March at Wolverhampton Crown Court. Mr Williams,

www.fawcetts.co.uk

ETA So a hell of a lot less than the tax on £27m (assuming that £27m figure is correct)

ETA The BBC / Guardian reporting it was just a 30% penalty he got charged. That's really the minimum HMRC charge (although I have got away with 20% for a client). It would appear that he has got treated very lightly by HMRC. This is the kind of case where HMRC most certainly should prosecute as an example to all. But he was Chancellor of the Exchequer so will have friendly contacts in the upper echelons of HMRC so it's not really a surprise to anybody is it?

 

[Audax]

Not sure Zahawi’s claim that the tax issue was carelessness can have credibility. Are we saying that someone that wealthy doesn’t have a tax accountant who can advise on the correct course of action.

If somebody "forgot" to declare £27M of taxable income on their Tax Return it can hardly be deemed to be a "careless" act. You don't forget £27m!

It also must have been "deliberate" - for the same reason. It also seems likely that this will have been a "prompted disclosure" (ie HMRC contacts the taxpayer rather than the taxpayer approaching HMRC and saying "oooops. I forgot to declare £27m").

If the omission from the Tax Return was "deliberate, concealed and prompted" you would typically expect a penalty in the range of 30% to 100% of the tax due. Much depends if he took "reasonable care" to ensure his tax return was accurate - and we can be sure he didn't.

Given the tax at stake, there might be an expectation that he would have been prosecuted. HMRC has had taxpayers put in jail for fiddling less than the tax at stake on £27m. I really would like to know the rate of penalty HMRC charged on the settlement.

But at end of the day, the fella is an untrustworthy crook and slippery Sunak just doesn't have the balls to sack him.

As I understand it from the reporting I've seen, you need to remember that the word "careless" has a very specific definition when it comes to tax. My own personal reading between the lines is that "careless" in reality means "we can't prove deliberate tax evasion, so we'll call it careless and you can pay us a penalty and we'll sweep it under the carpet. Don't do it again."

there's no other right wing party, the Tories mopped up all the UKipers, even the BNP vote Tory now. Tehy win power by being the single party with most votes under unfair FPTP voting system, if you look at all the votes in a general election most are for left or centre left but Tories still get in

They took the below seat from labour even though technically less people voted tory (if you add Tory and UKIP together) and more people voted for left parties

I agree that FPTP is an abomination that doesn't deserve to be called "democracy". However, you've cited 1 example. There's plenty of others where the Tory vote has absolutely collapsed and they've been spanked. Usually by Labour. Local council by elections, as singular results, can be hard to read from a distance - sometimes they are dominated by local issues / local politics that insulates them from what's happening at the national level. But if you follow council by election results even casually, you'll very quickly pick up the pattern that the Tories are in deep, deep trouble. Plenty of examples of the Tories losing a 50%+ share of the vote down into the 20's and seeing a Labour or Lib Dem (or Green, or Independent) take the seat.

The Tory will

I actually think Tice and possibly Farage in tow could still do the Tories a lot of damage.

They only need 5 or 6 percent and they’re looking very screwed in a number of seats.

Tice has already announced plans to stand a Reform party candidate in all Tory-held seats, hasn't he? As you say, in a lot of those seats a relatively small vote share for a Tice candidate could result in the seat going to Labour or Lib Dem.

There's also the question of turn out at the next election. Part of what won Labour their landslide when Major was kicked out was a significant proportion of Tory voters staying home and not voting because they didn't mind if Labour won. Couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour, but equally didn't mind if Labour won and thus stayed home to express their displeasure at the Tories. There's recent polling suggests that same situation is developing again now. Nationally, voters have shifted slightly leftwards. And nationally, just 52% of Tory voters would be unhappy if Labour won the next election.

 

[rippleman]

As I understand it from the reporting I've seen, you need to remember that the word "careless" has a very specific definition when it comes to tax. My own personal reading between the lines is that "careless" in reality means "we can't prove deliberate tax evasion, so we'll call it careless and you can pay us a penalty and we'll sweep it under the carpet. Don't do it again."




I agree that FPTP is an abomination that doesn't deserve to be called "democracy". However, you've cited 1 example. There's plenty of others where the Tory vote has absolutely collapsed and they've been spanked. Usually by Labour. Local council by elections, as singular results, can be hard to read from a distance - sometimes they are dominated by local issues / local politics that insulates them from what's happening at the national level. But if you follow council by election results even casually, you'll very quickly pick up the pattern that the Tories are in deep, deep trouble. Plenty of examples of the Tories losing a 50%+ share of the vote down into the 20's and seeing a Labour or Lib Dem (or Green, or Independent) take the seat.


Tice has already announced plans to stand a Reform party candidate in all Tory-held seats, hasn't he? As you say, in a lot of those seats a relatively small vote share for a Tice candidate could result in the seat going to Labour or Lib Dem.

There's also the question of turn out at the next election. Part of what won Labour their landslide when Major was kicked out was a significant proportion of Tory voters staying home and not voting because they didn't mind if Labour won. Couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour, but equally didn't mind if Labour won and thus stayed home to express their displeasure at the Tories. There's recent polling suggests that same situation is developing again now. Nationally, voters have shifted slightly leftwards. And nationally, just 52% of Tory voters would be unhappy if Labour won the next election.

Here are HMRC's internal instructions on "reasonable care"

CH81120 - Penalties for Inaccuracies: Types of inaccuracy: What is reasonable care - HMRC internal manual - GOV.UK

www.gov.uk

"In HMRC’s view it is reasonable to expect a person who encounters a transaction or other event with which they are not familiar to take care to find out about the correct tax treatment or to seek appropriate advice."

 

[Peteinblack]

Tice has already announced plans to stand a Reform party candidate in all Tory-held seats, hasn't he? As you say, in a lot of those seats a relatively small vote share for a Tice candidate could result in the seat going to Labour or Lib Dem.

There's also the question of turn out at the next election. Part of what won Labour their landslide when Major was kicked out was a significant proportion of Tory voters staying home and not voting because they didn't mind if Labour won. Couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour, but equally didn't mind if Labour won and thus stayed home to express their displeasure at the Tories. There's recent polling suggests that same situation is developing again now. Nationally, voters have shifted slightly leftwards. And nationally, just 52% of Tory voters would be unhappy if Labour won the next election.

Except that the Reform Party also appears to be very popular among many working-class ex-Labour or Red Wall voters who think Starmer is too posh, Establishment, and pro-European (at heart). I've encountered quite a few of these people on social media.

So I envisage that the Conservatives and Labour will lose some votes to the Reform Party, which might just cancel each other out.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

I like a new definition I saw of what England has become - a kleptocracy, a place where legitimised government theft has become common place and acceptable.

A lot of people will be rushing to honestly fill in their online tax returns before the Jan 31 deadline. Makes you wonder why they bother.

 

[The Clamp]

Dear God.

Councils freeze levelling up projects as soaring costs exceed grants

Exclusive: Half a billion pounds lost from projects funded by government schemes due to inflation and rising costs

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pevenseagull]

As I understand it from the reporting I've seen, you need to remember that the word "careless" has a very specific definition when it comes to tax. My own personal reading between the lines is that "careless" in reality means "we can't prove deliberate tax evasion, so we'll call it careless and you can pay us a penalty and we'll sweep it under the carpet. Don't do it again."




I agree that FPTP is an abomination that doesn't deserve to be called "democracy". However, you've cited 1 example. There's plenty of others where the Tory vote has absolutely collapsed and they've been spanked. Usually by Labour. Local council by elections, as singular results, can be hard to read from a distance - sometimes they are dominated by local issues / local politics that insulates them from what's happening at the national level. But if you follow council by election results even casually, you'll very quickly pick up the pattern that the Tories are in deep, deep trouble. Plenty of examples of the Tories losing a 50%+ share of the vote down into the 20's and seeing a Labour or Lib Dem (or Green, or Independent) take the seat.


Tice has already announced plans to stand a Reform party candidate in all Tory-held seats, hasn't he? As you say, in a lot of those seats a relatively small vote share for a Tice candidate could result in the seat going to Labour or Lib Dem.

There's also the question of turn out at the next election. Part of what won Labour their landslide when Major was kicked out was a significant proportion of Tory voters staying home and not voting because they didn't mind if Labour won. Couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour, but equally didn't mind if Labour won and thus stayed home to express their displeasure at the Tories. There's recent polling suggests that same situation is developing again now. Nationally, voters have shifted slightly leftwards. And nationally, just 52% of Tory voters would be unhappy if Labour won the next election.

That 4%ish of Labour voters who would be dissatisfied are mostly made up of people who think Owen Jones would do a better job.