It won't. If he (as looks likely) holds on today, then we look to the results of the by-elections later this month. If those are as bad as they're currently looking (and I suspect they'd get worse if Boris hangs on by the skin of his teeth), then it doesn't matter what the current rules say. The 1922 will change the rules if they need to. Or Boris will be taken to a private, dark room and given a stern talking to and he'll reluctantly resign (Theresa May v2.0). If I was a betting man, I'd put my house on it that he doesn't last another 12 months even if he wins today (assuming it's a narrow win).
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[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...
- Thread starter TomandJerry
- Start date
It won't. If he (as looks likely) holds on today, then we look to the results of the by-elections later this month. If those are as bad as they're currently looking (and I suspect they'd get worse if Boris hangs on by the skin of his teeth), then it doesn't matter what the current rules say. The 1922 will change the rules if they need to. Or Boris will be taken to a private, dark room and given a stern talking to and he'll reluctantly resign (Theresa May v2.0). If I was a betting man, I'd put my house on it that he doesn't last another 12 months even if he wins today (assuming it's a narrow win).
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #8,162
Brady will not say whether he has submitted a letter to himself calling a no confidence vote, but he says it would be an odd thing to do.
And he says that, while technically it would be possible to change the rules, as they stand now if Boris Johnson wins there will be a year-long “period of grace” during which a further leadership contest cannot take place.
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And he says that, while technically it would be possible to change the rules, as they stand now if Boris Johnson wins there will be a year-long “period of grace” during which a further leadership contest cannot take place.
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jakarta
Well-known member
Surely if he wins, no matter how narrowly, the 1922 Rules are that he can't be challenged again for a further 12 months?
He won't resign.
I know Theresa May did even when she won her Vote but she was somewhat more honourable...
mikeyjh
Well-known member
That suggests that Johnson has a tiny bit of honour, which he hasn't! Was just talking about this - Any win, he will see as vindication.
As the rules stand today, that is correct - if Boris wins, he can't be challenged again for another 12 months. However, Brady himself has said just this morning that the rules can be changed. And, if you cast your mind back to when May faced (and won) a vote, within a very short period she was facing constant rumours that the 1922 were going to change the rules unless she resigned ... which ultimately, she did.
If, ( big if) he loses, then we have a Tory party only vote for a new leader and, hence Prime Minister, voted for by the 160,000 members of the Party.
Don’t you just love, great British Democracy.
Don’t you just love, great British Democracy.
Wonder if Labour are happy with this?
For getting into power the chances increase the longer Johnson is in power.
For getting into power the chances increase the longer Johnson is in power.
If he wins by a small margin the pressure will be intense and I think he will be forced out by his party one way or another over time.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #8,171
If Johnson wins and then the Tories get spanked in the two upcoming by-elections they will be loving this
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Weststander
Well-known member
They’d want him to stay. In the same way the rest of the EPL loved Ole’s At The Wheel enduring employment at Manure.
Some big profits still to be had.
He ain’t going anywhere. If they really wanted him out, he’d have gone ages ago.
He'll just ignore this.
The line will be... "No leader has 100% confidence. I hear that you want change. Let's get on and deliver."
He's a liar and a slob. He'll just hang on until he is dragged out kicking and screaming like the child that he is.
The line will be... "No leader has 100% confidence. I hear that you want change. Let's get on and deliver."
He's a liar and a slob. He'll just hang on until he is dragged out kicking and screaming like the child that he is.
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
especially with two byelections coming up, both of which they are going to lose.
Simple majority. 180 is the magic number. Let's just hope the rebels are good at darts.
Ordinarily I would say a sitting PM would win this as most leadership votes revolve around internal splits and divisions.
But I reckon there is palpable sense of dismay in the country with Johnson’s leadership that MPs won’t have been able to ignore over the long weekend. I genuinely think he could lose this tonight. It’s a real ‘carpe diem’ moment for Tory MPs.
But I reckon there is palpable sense of dismay in the country with Johnson’s leadership that MPs won’t have been able to ignore over the long weekend. I genuinely think he could lose this tonight. It’s a real ‘carpe diem’ moment for Tory MPs.
Indeed.
He only needs a majority of 1 to become untouchable for a year. And I fully expect him to take retribution (removal of whip) to those he thinks are ring leaders of the anti-Boris campaign if he wins.
As I said in an earlier post, a close win will mean he is forced out by other means. I really cannot see the party continuining with him as leader if half the parliamentary Tory party is against him. This will be even worse for them than the current situation. He will be leant on heavily. One trick he might pull is a fresh manadate via an early election.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
Even this is being spun, as a Vote of Confidence when it has always been known as a Vote of No Confidence.