[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Audax]

Sadly, I don't see the Tories losing Wealden at a GE because the answer to the question you pose is likely to be no.

Ghani received over 60% of the votes, so it'll take a massive drop AND for non-Tory voters to coalesce behind one party for there to be change. Would Labour step aside? Unlikely as they were only a few percent behind the LibDems, who realistically would be the only party likely to attract significant numbers of deserting Tory voters.

Meanwhile, next door in Lewes, my MP Maria Caulfield is toast for sure, with a majority under 2,500!

Lewes results just in. Tories lost all 18 of their seats. Greens now biggest group, just ahead of Lib Dems.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Lewes results just in. Tories lost all 18 of their seats. Greens now biggest group, just ahead of Lib Dems.

 

[Motogull]

Just look at the latest figures at the bottom Mr Sunak. It’s a moving graphic but Labour +119
Cons - 228
LibDem +61

Good grief. Same answer to every question just changed the order of words. He must have spent ages learning that little script.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Tories lost Dover to Labour.

 

[vegster]

Curtice has been suggesting the gains might not (quite) be enough to indicate Labour are on course to win a majority. But by the same token, none of the analysis that comes out of today will include potential gains that Labour can make in Scotland due to the SNP seemingly bent on throwing away their massive majority.

You can add the fact that there were no council votes in London this time around. Equally, lots of council voting focuses on local issues and a huge number of independent candidates that split the vote.

There are very few independent candidates at a GE with a hope and this will coalesce and polarise the vote.

 

[zefarelly]

Full Wealden results now declared. Conservatives have lost control in an absolute battering:

Lib Dems: gained 7 (to have 13)
Greens: gained 7 (to have 11)
"Other": gained 3 (to have 10)
Con: lost 20 (to have 8) (and 1 of those was uncontested!)
Lab: gained 3 (to have 3)

Nus Ghani in trouble at the next GE despite having a 25,655 majority in 2019? Plenty of anti-Tory votes. Question will be whether the voters can get behind a single tactical "oust the Tory" candidate (LibDem?).

This is exactly why the tories will be relaxed about this. . . Thdey'll pull some bullshit out of the bag and still cling on because no one else will co-operate

sadly half the nation are idiotic/selfish scum With no interest in the greater good. It's all they've known for over 40 years.

 

[beorhthelm]

took a year and 5 months to get there.

 

[Since1982]

Tories lose control of Mid Sussex. Lib Dems now the largest party. Conservatives held all the seats up until 2019 as I recall.

 

[nicko31]

Tories lose control of Mid Sussex. Lib Dems now the largest party. Conservatives held all the seats up until 2019 as I recall.

LD's doing very well in the blue shires.

Tories were saying they were going to lose 1000 seat in the expectation it would be 6-700, then say did better than expected. Currently on -1043, pretty much on the worse side of expectations

 

[Guinness Boy]

Tories lost Dover to Labour.

Massively voted for Brexit. Now angry they’re still getting immigrants and have coaches lined up outside their front doors.

 

[Gabbiano]

What a great couple of days.

First we get our revenge on Man U with a last minute penalty.

Then the Tories get wiped out across Sussex. Mid Sussex and Arun look like being no overall control too.

For Horsham to go full Lib Dem control (and quite comfortably so too), that says quite something. Hope MP Jeremy Quin is sweating - with the proposed electoral boundary changes, votes will be ever more reliant on the Horsham town, Southwater and Billingshurst - all voted strongly Lib Dem.

 

[nicko31]

Massively voted for Brexit. Now angry they’re still getting immigrants and have coaches lined up outside their front doors.

New lovely lorry park too...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Tory losses now number more than 1000 seats.

 

[clapham_gull]

Conservatives a busted flush. The interesting thing for me is not so much the somewhat mediocre Labour recovery, but how the Tories are getting dismissed from all sides.

A very much kick them out local election result and a lot of tactical voting going on.

If you haven't much of a clue what Labour policies are, I'm damned if I know what the Lib Dems are, but they had a very very good night.

That's the real issue at CCHQ. They can spin all they like regarding how Labour didn't do as well as they wanted. But the penny must have dropped at how despised they are by the majority of the electorate.

The best they can hope for is a small Labour majority, recover in opposition and come back at some point.

Their nightmare scenario is a coalition between Labour and a significant Lib Dem vote which manages to get a change in the electoral system over the line.

 

[Machiavelli]

There will be several prominent Tory MPs looking at these results somewhat nervously today. Jonathan Gullis and Jacob Rees-Mogg most notably.

If there are two things I can't imagine, it's a nervous Gullis and a nervous JRM.
Would rather they just went away (which is likely with Gullis, less so with JRM).

And, tonight, they've wheeled out the worst of the lot: Chris Philp

 

[clapham_gull]

Out of interest, I wonder in six months times the Tories panic, kick out Sunak and get Sam Allardyce in as PM.

 

[Machiavelli]

This is literally the line the Tories were pedalling on Today this morning when it’s their own vote that’s been decimated. Labour continues to make gains. I think we can all see where your affections really lie, it comes over in all your political posts.

But I should probably remind you anyway that the Con Lib coalition got plenty of things done from 2010 and led to a succession of Tory only governments rather than Labour getting in. Things only really got bad when Cameron lost Brexit and May couldn’t implement it. Cue another election and a huge Tory majority which has been completely hamstrung by people who can’t follow their own rules or keep their dicks in their pants. Three Prime Ministers later and we’re all living hand to mouth.

The things all went wrong because (Cameron called; the public voted for; the mess of) Brexit narrative is widespread. It's also a load of old baloney. Things went wrong because the British electorate bought the austerity nonsense and, before that, the prior neoliberal iteration of it stretching all the way back through 'beyond left and right' Blair, 'family values' Major and all the way back to you know who. You go through all that, throw in Osborne's austerity as the context, you get Brexit.

 

[Machiavelli]

Conservatives a busted flush. The interesting thing for me is not so much the somewhat mediocre Labour recovery, but how the Tories are getting dismissed from all sides.

A very much kick them out local election result and a lot of tactical voting going on.

If you haven't much of a clue what Labour policies are, I'm damned if I know what the Lib Dems are, but they had a very very good night.

That's the real issue at CCHQ. They can spin all they like regarding how Labour didn't do as well as they wanted. But the penny must have dropped at how despised they are by the majority of the electorate.

The best they can hope for is a small Labour majority, recover in opposition and come back at some point.

Their nightmare scenario is a coalition between Labour and a significant Lib Dem vote which manages to get a change in the electoral system over the line.

While I agree with this, this is what happens two-thirds of the way through your fifth term and into the fourteenth year in office. Labour have never got that far.
That said, doubt any other government has left such a devastating trail of destruction in their wake.
Couldn't agree more about the electoral system, although that's only a small piece in a rather large jigsaw.

 

[clapham_gull]

While I agree with this, this is what happens two-thirds of the way through your fifth term and into the fourteenth year in office. Labour have never got that far.
That said, doubt any other government has left such a devastating trail of destruction in their wake.
Couldn't agree more about the electoral system, although that's only a small piece in a rather large jigsaw.

Utter firestorm within the context of an historic weak opposition. I blame the Corbyn leadership as much as the idiocy of the UK electorate choosing a clown like Johnson.

Putting ideology to one side, we lost all sense of professionalism in public office the minute Cameron lit the match.

Both parties chasing a little Englander vote. The Tories doubling down on it, Labour having to diffuse their message of required reform.

After today's result it clear the Tories are finished. What's not so clear is what replaces them. The message today is anything but.

Hard to predict next election, but I suspect it will be two fingers up to politicians with Labour given the benefit of the doubt. It will be the Tories economic record that kills them.

 

[Acker79]

After today's result it clear the Tories are finished. What's not so clear is what replaces them. The message today is anything but.

Hard to predict next election, but I suspect it will be two fingers up to politicians with Labour given the benefit of the doubt. It will be the Tories economic record that kills them.

You seem to have more faith in the electorate than I do. I'm currently expecting that next year too many voters will think 'I voted labour/lib dem last year, and they ain't done nuthin for me, I'm gonna vote Tory in the GE'.