[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[happypig]

Sorry not sorry.

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Astonishing lack of awareness, it's not just that he thinks he can get away with it, he thinks he's entitled to get away with it.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

But that was a bit rude, though.

I was merely commenting on the abuse I was receiving. It’s up to other people to make their own minds up about the ‘quality’ of the debate.

 

[Audax]

But why? Why is Corbyn unelectable and Johnson and Trump are?

Liz Truss is likely to the next PM, Is she electable? I wouldn't just not trust her to lead the country, I wouldn't trust her to do my scanning at work

On Corbyn: because he had zero appeal to the centrist and centre-left voters he needed to win an election. Partly because he was perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be far left, partly because the cabinet he put together simply didn't inspire confidence. Corbyn-led Labour also (whether rightly or wrongly) lost key backing among traditional Labour supporters (eg the Jewish community). Corbyn, while extremely popular with a certain demographic, didn't have the widespread appeal needed for a Labour party to win an election. Corbyn was also very, very weak when it came to the defensive side of politics: he couldn't get any of the press on-side, and his responses to attacks from the right weren't good enough to deflect the hits. He wasn't good in PMQ's (Starmer is better, and growing into it, but also still not good at consistently landing the telling blows yet).

On Johnson / Trump: in both cases, they were able to exploit unrest in the electorate about the current status quo, re-target that unrest towards the opposition support base, and unify the right side of politics to vote for a single party. Johnson's success was in neutralising the ability for Farage to split the vote on the right, while seeing the vote on the left split. In a FPTP system Boris played the numbers game very, very well.

On Truss: will need to see how she handles herself if she does get the role. But she wouldn't be starting in a good place: she's not got Boris' charisma or ability to bluff. She's also not got a great track record - there are plenty of attack lines for Labour to explore, so a lot will depend on her ability to handle those.

On Gove: he'll struggle IMO. Partly for historic reasons, partly because he simply doesn't have the face for it. It's a horribly shallow thing, but simple fact is that many will form an opinion of him based on visual first impressions and that's not a battle he's going to win.

On Sunak: Jury still out? I'm honestly not sure what to make of him. Canny political player who could rescue the Tories? Or would he be out of his depth? Anything in his history that Labour could latch on to?

 

[Gwylan]

On Corbyn: because he had zero appeal to the centrist and centre-left voters he needed to win an election. Partly because he was perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be far left, partly because the cabinet he put together simply didn't inspire confidence. Corbyn-led Labour also (whether rightly or wrongly) lost key backing among traditional Labour supporters (eg the Jewish community). C

A study by YouGov in 2017 put support for the Tories at 72% with Labour at 17%, by the time of the 2019 election this has risen to 93% support for Conservatives. Damning for Corbyn but the figures don't really suggest that Jews traditionally voted Labour (although it should also be said that in 2010, the figures were evenly split with only a narrow majority favouring Conservatives - but still, I wouldn't say that Jews traditionally voted Labour)

As to the next leader, I'm having a punt on Hunt. He's the only one with clean hands: Johnson's going to drag the rest of the cabinet down with him

 

[Adders1]

Am I missing something, but did anyone who voted for him not expect something like this to happen? Even Ray Charles would have seen this coming. The question is does anyone in the conservative electorate really care? They’ve already poisoned the chalice for any future change in government and possibly for many generations to come. If interest rates rise, the majority of middle England is fooked!

 

[Audax]

A study by YouGov in 2017 put support for the Tories at 72% with Labour at 17%, by the time of the 2019 election this has risen to 93% support for Conservatives. Damning for Corbyn but the figures don't really suggest that Jews traditionally voted Labour (although it should also be said that in 2010, the figures were evenly split with only a narrow majority favouring Conservatives - but still, I wouldn't say that Jews traditionally voted Labour)

Fair shout, but still points to Corbyn losing a not-insignificant demographic (when it comes to Labour being electable with him as Leader). Labour doesn't necessarily need to *win* the Jewish vote. But they do need to win *enough* of it - and they lost what they had. Corbyn cemented a slide that had already been happening. Not seen any polls, but articles I've seen suggest Starmer may be winning them back - he's at least got qualified support from the Jewish-Labour organisations instead of negativity like Corbyn had.

Still, the worry for those of us who want the Tories out is that the polling isn't pointing towards a strong enough boost in support for Labour. Tory support is draining away, sure, but ideally we'd want to be seeing Labour support heading north of 40% at the same time.

 

[Gwylan]

Fair shout, but still points to Corbyn losing a not-insignificant demographic (when it comes to Labour being electable with him as Leader). Labour doesn't necessarily need to *win* the Jewish vote. But they do need to win *enough* of it - and they lost what they had. Corbyn cemented a slide that had already been happening. Not seen any polls, but articles I've seen suggest Starmer may be winning them back - he's at least got qualified support from the Jewish-Labour organisations instead of negativity like Corbyn had.

Still, the worry for those of us who want the Tories out is that the polling isn't pointing towards a strong enough boost in support for Labour. Tory support is draining away, sure, but ideally we'd want to be seeing Labour support heading north of 40% at the same time.

Yes, he may be winning some back but I don't think winning much of it means very much. According to the latest census, there are about 240,000 Jews in the UK - fewer than 400 per constituency (and that's assuming they all vote and are over 18 - which they won't be). It may make a difference in Finchley and Golders Green but won't have much impact elsewhere.

I agree that Labour needs to be well above 40% though and I'm not sure where it's going to get those votes from

 

[pb21]

I don’t think I have explained myself very well, sorry. What I am trying to say is that coal fired power stations have been shut down very quickly and renewables are increasingly being called on by National grids. That is a good thing. Ultimately it is the cheapest form of energy. However at the moment it is not sufficient to replace coal. The obvious fallback is an increase in gas fired power but stocks are very low and Russia is not booking export capacity via the Ukraine as expected. They say this is because of a big post Covid demand increase in Russia itself which may be partly true. Also though they are playing politics to try to force German approval of Nordstream 2. Couple this with Asian and South American buyers outbidding Europe in LNG and you have a very tight market. Demand for this shortfall is certainly there as stocks need to be replenished for next winter but all that is happening is a price squeeze as buyers try to outbid each other for scarce supply. Interestingly as well coal is actually making a comeback as countries (apart from Germany) halt the shutdowns and there is little let up in demand from Asia. The other consequence is that nuclear power is also being discussed as France has retained this capacity and does not face the same problems as the rest of Europe.

This article perhaps explains it better;

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fort...er-imaging-it-would-one-day-stop-blowing/amp/

Reading through all of this I don’t think the issue is so much the energy transition per se, i.e. the shift to renewables and increased windfarms, it’s how the shift to renewables has been managed. This hasn’t been an issue until recently, when wind speeds have dropped off, coupled at the same time with less EU supply, through reduced production and depleted storage.

I am not sure why EU gas production has dropped off, or why our reserves were not kept topped up, but to allow a drop off in wind speed making us heavily reliant on Russia, seems a bit of an oversight!

 

[Glawstergull]

Am I missing something, but did anyone who voted for him not expect something like this to happen? Even Ray Charles would have seen this coming. The question is does anyone in the conservative electorate really care? They’ve already poisoned the chalice for any future change in government and possibly for many generations to come. If interest rates rise, the majority of middle England is fooked!

I dont remember Boris Johnson's name being on my ballot paper. Most voted for an Indvividual to represent them in the houses of parliament from the Consevative Party. I'm not interested in the "Westminster Game".
I just dont believe that a Labour Government is the best for this country or me.
That doesnt mean i agree with or support the current group or leader of the "Tories". Whatever they are.

 

[BBassic]

I dont remember Boris Johnson's name being on my ballot paper. Most voted for an Indvividual to represent them in the houses of parliament from the Consevative Party. I'm not interested in the "Westminster Game".
I just dont believe that a Labour Government is the best for this country or me.
That doesnt mean i agree with or support the current group or leader of the "Tories". Whatever they are.

You're right, of course, but I'd wager most people have zero clue what kind of platform their local candidate runs on and are precisely voting for Johnson. Or Starmer. Or whoever runs the Lib Dems these days.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Reading through all of this I don’t think the issue is so much the energy transition per se, i.e. the shift to renewables and increased windfarms, it’s how the shift to renewables has been managed. This hasn’t been an issue until recently, when wind speeds have dropped off, coupled at the same time with less EU supply, through reduced production and depleted storage.

I am not sure why EU gas production has dropped off, or why our reserves were not kept topped up, but to allow a drop off in wind speed making us heavily reliant on Russia, seems a bit of an oversight!

Indeed. You have summarized it better than my attempt. On a side note we have wind farms in abundance off the Wirral coast. The infrastructure is mightily impressive. At the weekend I also noticed a charging point for electric cars by the beach at Hoylake. I am sure there will be others. Our next car will certainly be electric.

 

[Adders1]

I dont remember Boris Johnson's name being on my ballot paper. Most voted for an Indvividual to represent them in the houses of parliament from the Consevative Party. I'm not interested in the "Westminster Game".
I just dont believe that a Labour Government is the best for this country or me.
That doesnt mean i agree with or support the current group or leader of the "Tories". Whatever they are.

Poor choice in simplifying the terminology involved in describing the voting process - of course you’re right there

‘There was never an election and even if there was, I didn’t vote until Sue Grey confirms I voted ‘

 

[halbpro]

I dont remember Boris Johnson's name being on my ballot paper. Most voted for an Indvividual to represent them in the houses of parliament from the Consevative Party. I'm not interested in the "Westminster Game".
I just dont believe that a Labour Government is the best for this country or me.
That doesnt mean i agree with or support the current group or leader of the "Tories". Whatever they are.

You may not be, but generally people vote for the party rather than the local candidate. There are some seats where this isn't true, places with particularly good local MPs who win even if general trends suggest they shouldn't, but in general people vote for the party. The party leaders for Labour and the Conservatives are comfortably their most significant figures, although this can be different in the smaller parties (Clegg is probably still more well known than Ed Davey or Jo Swinson for example). That leader does have an effect, regardless of whether it should or not.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Yes, he may be winning some back but I don't think winning much of it means very much. According to the latest census, there are about 240,000 Jews in the UK - fewer than 400 per constituency (and that's assuming they all vote and are over 18 - which they won't be). It may make a difference in Finchley and Golders Green but won't have much impact elsewhere.

I agree that Labour needs to be well above 40% though and I'm not sure where it's going to get those votes from

Speaking as a broad left voter (who votes for Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion but nips over the border to work for Peter Kyle's campaigns at elections), I despair of Labour. The diehard Corbynites are going to shoot them in the foot again with their refusal to get behind Starmer. Many in Brighton and Hove Labour would rather a Tory had won Hove than the centrist Kyle. It really is the Judean People's Front all over again - while the Tories will hold their noses and pretend to get solidly behind their leader during an election as they always do.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

You may not be, but generally people vote for the party rather than the local candidate. There are some seats where this isn't true, places with particularly good local MPs who win even if general trends suggest they shouldn't, but in general people vote for the party. The party leaders for Labour and the Conservatives are comfortably their most significant figures, although this can be different in the smaller parties (Clegg is probably still more well known than Ed Davey or Jo Swinson for example). That leader does have an effect, regardless of whether it should or not.

The leadership does have an effect, yes, but it is not straightforward and every election is unique. In 2019 for instance it is possible that Corbyn’s leadership had a large negative effect on Labour whilst the desire to complete Brexit for many voters over rode any negative feelings about Johnson’s leadership. The other parties did not offer completing withdrawal so it was an open goal for the Tories, regardless of leadership. Labour supporters find this very unfair hence a lot of the bitterness and vitriol seen on this thread and others. The moral of the story is that Starmer probably needs something positive for people to get behind him on. The usual list of things the left are against won’t do it. Blair managed it and I think Starmer will do so too.

 

[Stat Brother]

Was it Theresa May who coined the slogan of " Strong and Stable " for the Tory Government?... A lot has changed since that [emoji1787]!!!!

If only it had.

 

[Stato]

Rees-Mogg is now trying to suggest that the restrictions may have been too harsh.

Yes Jacob, they were very harsh. Your lot may have noticed this sooner had you not been under the impression that the restrictions applied just to us and not to you.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Anyone who still thinks that Brexit is going well at this stage is trying to justify their incorrect choice and is not using measured judgement.

I don't think [MENTION=34242]Neville's Breakfast[/MENTION] has declared that Brexit is going well, has he?

I was a massive remainer, and expect Brexit to end badly (for a while at least, and it was all needless) but nothing much has happened yet and it's too early to be certain. The state of the economy now can plausibly (I am not saying correctly here, too early to say, but it is plausibly) be blamed on Covid. We will be able to judge the likely impact of Brexit when we compare the change in social and economic indicators between 2 years ago and, say, in 5 years time and compare that with the same trajectory for Germany, France and a few other nations. So if anyone wishes to claim that Brexit has not had any bad effects (yet) one can't 'prove' this is incorrect.

There are and will be bigger fights to be had, and with other people who are genuinely strident Boris fan boys, I feel. Powder dry, and all that

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I despair of Labour. The diehard Corbynites are going to shoot them in the foot again with their refusal to get behind Starmer.

Yep.

Tories way behind now in the polls, but once they get a new leader and get behind him in a way that Labour seem unable to do, they'll win the next election.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Sorry not sorry.

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Johnson is totally deluded.