Bob!
Coffee Buyer
- Jul 5, 2003
- 11,630
Rishi will pick up enough votes via Tugendhat (either immediately in Monday's vote as his support desserts the sinking ship or on Tuesday when Tugendhat drops out) to secure 1 of the two final spots.
The other spot then depends on what happens with Braverman's 27 votes. There's enough there for Badenoch to pass Truss. Question is ... were those 27 backing Braverman as their preferred "Johnsonite" - in which case they go to Truss. Or were they backing her for her on-the-right politics, in which case they might go Badenoch.
Final four will definitely be Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Badenoch - but a lot then rests on the exact order of Truss/Badenoch. Badenoch 4th I suspect might result in Truss overtaking Mordaunt for 2nd. Truss 4th I think guarantees Mordaunt 2nd.
I reckon Sunak may fancy his chances more against Truss than Mordaunt.
He may well be tactically 'loaning' some of his votes to Truss to stop Mordaunt.