Nobby Cybergoat
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- Jul 19, 2021
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[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...
- Thread starter TomandJerry
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Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 8,754
I saw that.
And the 14 who retain their seats, I've not heard of or barely heard of. The entire cabinet wiped out..
And this ignores that people are likely to vote tactically to make it even worse for the tories.
This like porn basically
I'll be very, very surprised if it actually happens like that. The polls will, inevitably, close somewhat once the GE is called and campaigning gets underway. The Tories will win back some voters (particularly from Reform), and a lot of currently "shy" Tory voters saying "I don't know" on the polls will fall Tory. Also remains to be seen what effect, if any, the Muslim voters will have. They've abandoned Labour in the locals due to Gaza, which could complicate things in marginal seats with high Muslim populations.
I agree it's pretty unlikely that it happens like that. But I'm assuming the opinion polls DO include Muslim voters. In addition, there WILL be tactical voting, which doesn't easily get factored into opinion polls. There was an interesting article by Peter Kellner, quoted in the FT at the weekend (it even mentions Palarse!!):
"Amid the glorious blizzard of graphics with which Sky News and the BBC explained last week’s elections, one stands out. It undermines Rishi Sunak’s claim that the Conservatives are on course to deprive Labour of a majority at the coming general election.
Sunak’s claim is very narrowly based. It’s as if, when Crystal Palace recently took the lead against Manchester City inside 10 minutes, he had said the champions were on course to lose 9-0 after the full 90. Dream on, Palace fans; dream on, prime minister.
The local elections showed an overall swing to Labour of 7.5 per cent (half of the total of Con down 12 plus Lab up 3). But where Labour came second last time, the swing is 12 per cent. If that difference were to apply in the general election, Labour would win an extra 40 Conservative seats beyond those they would anyway on the national swing.
In the case of the Liberal Democrats, the swing is 7 per cent in all seats, 9.5 per cent where they came second last time. That extra 2.5-point swing would give the Lib Dems around six extra gains.
There is more direct evidence of tactical voting in last week’s results. In the elections for London’s assembly, the capital is divided into 14 groups of boroughs. South West London is dominated by three Lib Dem parliamentary seats. Whereas the battle for London’s mayor was between Tory and Labour, the battle for South West London’s assembly member was Tory versus Lib Dem. This gives us a compelling social experiment, with the same people voting the same day in two different contests. Without tactical voting, we would expect the two results to be similar; with tactical voting they would be different.
Here is what happened. Labour won 38 per cent in South West London in the mayoral election, but just 25 per cent in the assembly election. In contrast, the Lib Dem vote shot up from 13 per cent (mayor) to a winning 33 per cent (assembly). The difference between the two election results reflects tactical voting on an epic scale. Which means that voters really, really hate the Tories and will do whatever it takes to remove them. As if we didn’t know already."
agree but i think we can be confident of a labour majority. Good enough.
This is worth a read:
Long and the short of it: no, I don't think the Muslim voter effect is being captured accurately in the polling. Apart from anything else, the areas where the population of Muslim voters is large enough tends to be very localised. Although it might explain why we're seeing some chunky variation in the polls currently; run one with larger Muslim % in the sample and you get a different result.
We've got a few months to run. It's possible Labour can win back the Muslim voters. It's also possible that come a GE those voters make different choices (it's easier to lodge a "we're warning you" protest vote in locals), especially as they'll be faced with very different candidate options. But we might just see an Independent or two edge out a Labour candidate, or the Greens grab enough voters off Labour to take an extra seat or two (Bristol?).
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories come out of the next GE with fewer than 200 seats. Fewer than 100 ... nah, I don't see that (currently). They definitely won't have fewer than the Lib Dems unless something truly seismic happens (such as a mass walkout of Tory voters to Reform creating Tory vs Ref vs LDem and/or Lab contests that sees Reform taking some seats).
Well I like the narrative (that a right wing tory gave Sunk the maximum possible "f*** OFF" before f***ing off herself). She is not contesting the seat. Under those circumstances it would have been petty and peevish for Starmer to tell her to do one.
I'm sure the extreme left and extreme right will attempt to weaponize this against labour, but everyone I spoke to at a lunch today (one Old Labour, one New Labour and two erstwhile Tories) all thought it was a terrific wheeze, and yet another nail in this disgraceful government's coffin.
(and this topic occupied no more than 2 minutes of a 150 minute lunch session).
I honestly have no idea.
There is f*** all any of the parties can do about it anyway, and any proselytizing is just sanctimonious dog whistling for purposes of vote harvesting.
Just to illustrate the absurdity of the 'Team Palestine' and 'Team Israel' activists, one of the Israeli government (a member of an extremist party) has accused Biden of being a lover of Hamas. Why? For declining to flog the Israelis some very heavy duty war munitions that can destroy organs at 300 metres from the bomb's epicenter - for use on the streets of Rafa. FFS.
Meanwhile I forget which side is accusing Starmer of being a 'war criminal' for something or other. Was it for failing to say that if he were PM he would lead British Forces into a single handed mission to (something, something)? Or was it for not demanding the boycott the sale of Star of David jewelry?
I really am not interested in the opinion of the blowhard special pleaders. It was bad enough listening to the Palestinian spokeswanka (mere days after Hamas went mad, and hours after Israel started smiting) insisting that he refused to discuss the events that initiated it all, becuse the only think that mattered was the hundreds (as it was then) of dead Palestinians, crushed under the boot of Nazi Israel, for no justifiable reason.
I think it was at that point that I lost interest in the whole thing, re-engaging only when the Palestinian dead hit the tens of thousands. Tens of thousands. What the actual f***?
With these lunatics on the loose in the mid east I couldn't give a tiny shit what the Liberals and the Greens think about it. If they have the temerity to say anything at all it simply reflects their delusions of relevance.
Thanks Harry! As wise as me about it all then......
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
Anyone ever seen any modelling of what potentially happens when the turnout is very low?
Why's that then?
He's not obliged to accepts her into the party. Telling an unsuitable character to go elsewhere isn't peevish or petty, it's principled!
She would have done almost as much damage to the Tories by defecting to Reform.
They are not rivals, so who would have noticed.
Had she decided to stand in the GE for reform, she may have pinched some tory votes. Maybe.
So, er, yeah, I guess you're right. But she's not standing anyway, so... m'eh
Did nobody notice when 30p went to reform?
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #23,700
Keir Starmer will promise to rip up the government’s Rwanda scheme and divert £75m to fund hundreds of new specialist officers to tackle people-smuggling with new counter-terror powers.