[Politics] Tonight,s EU vote and the margin of defeat ?

[Sussex Nomad]

I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.

 

[SAC]

Around 96 as I couldn't write just 96.

 

[Napper]

I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.

media must of told you this.

Open your eyes and see what this wretched tory party have done to the country , rather than focusing on the opposition as the media tell you to.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

It depends partly on what amendments are passed beforehand, although the maths are opaque. For example, one such amendment would make a no-deal impossible - this might mean that some no-dealers would vote for the May deal on the basis that there is nothing to be gained by seeing it fail. (On the other hand of course the same amendment would encourage Peoples-voters to do the exact opposite and vote against May's deal.)

147?

 

[Sussex Nomad]

media must of told you this.

Open your eyes and see what this wretched tory party have done to the country , rather than focusing on the opposition as the media tell you to.

Ah, thanks for letting me know. Comments like yours actually say everything about you.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

It depends partly on what amendments are passed beforehand, although the maths are opaque. For example, one such amendment would make a no-deal impossible - this might mean that some no-dealers would vote for the May deal on the basis that there is nothing to be gained by seeing it fail. (On the other hand of course the same amendment would encourage Peoples-voters to do the exact opposite and vote against May's deal.)

147?

Hilary Benn has withdrawn his amendment that would rule out a no deal Brexit.

[tweet]1085070276499513344[/tweet]

 

[neilbard]

226 according to Sky News.

 

[TheJasperCo]

These things never turn out as dramatically as the worst-case scenarios, sadly. I think the Press Association's assessment is likely to be close to the mark, so ~170 margin of defeat.

 

[knocky1]

Anyone getting a stiffy at the thought of Theresa May and Whips? Unfortunately they'll be used to flog her dead horse.

176 with a 5% error margin.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

What sort of stupid logic is this?

[tweet]1085197008858685442[/tweet]

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.

It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Hilary Benn has withdrawn his amendment that would rule out a no deal Brexit.

[tweet]1085070276499513344[/tweet]

Thanks for that update.

 

[Is it PotG?]

It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse

Where would 'Leaver' Comrade Corbyn be in such a scenario as above?

 

[Sussex Nomad]

It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse

If there were a second referendum it has to be more than a yes/no vote and the British public need to be fully informed as opposed to soundbites made from the first referendum. Many, on both sides were quite simply fooled into the hype. Incredibly startling how quiet Johnson has been in the past week or so. However I still don't think the Tories would collapse, simply because too many people do not trust Corbyn to be let loose with our country.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Is it POTG?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Hilary Benn has withdrawn his amendment that would rule out a no deal Brexit.

[tweet]1085070276499513344[/tweet]

The Remain, ignore/subvert the referendum result forces are on manoeuvres. Bercow didn't pick any amendment that may help the government reduce the size of the defeat and Benn knows his amendment could have passed making it more likely Brexiteer Mp's would reluctantly vote for May's deal so he withdrew it.

Size of defeat 150 ish

 

[blue-shifted]

No idea of the figures.

Crushing, but slightly less crushing than predicted

 

[nicko31]

How big does it have to be to declare her deal completely dead?

If I was a Brexiteer I would be voting for this, its still Brexit but the only Brexit possible that's not no deal.

I've always believed and have said on here numerous times the Brexiteers are the biggest threat to Brexit and that's still the case

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Is it POTG?

Yep, €7 a time

 

[Sussex Nomad]

I've always believed and have said on here numerous times the Brexiteers are the biggest threat to Brexit and that's still the case

Define that please.