[Politics] Tonight,s EU vote and the margin of defeat ?

[Triggaaar]

I believe it would have passed if all the Brexiteers voted for it. Including the DUP. There is a majority in the house for Brexit

What? No there isn't, most MPs want to remain - by a large margin.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

What? No there isn't, most MPs want to remain - by a large margin.

But loads of them voted with the government yesterday. Ken Clarke, for example. It was the Brexiteers that brought yesterdays vote down

 

[Triggaaar]

That's right, they were elected.

Why did you italicise 'elected', as if that was somehow something I hadn't grasped? The people elected MPs who are against Brexit, so the mess that followed was predictable and would have happened regardless of who was in power.

I didn't suggest Labour, I said they wouldn't do any worse. Or more accurately I'm taking issue with anyone who, when the Tories are accused of incompetence or worse, says "yeah but Labour would be worse" because I doubt that somehow seeing as this is probably the worst government I can remember. As for my voting, you're right - I've never voted Tory but would vote for Ken Clarke at a stroke.

My issue is that you think I'm just claiming that Labour would do a bad job of running the country because I don't like Labour, but I have voted for Labour, more than once. I just think they'd do a bad job with their current leader. You, however, are anti-tory, and you'll blame them for the situation even when it's not all their doing.

 

[Triggaaar]

But loads of them voted with the government yesterday. Ken Clarke, for example. It was the Brexiteers that brought yesterdays vote down

There are 650 MPs. The clear majority are remainers.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

There are 650 MPs. The clear majority are remainers.

Yes. Including the prime minister. But thats not what you and I are debating right now.

There is a majority in the house to vote for Brexit. They just can't decide what kind of Brexit to vote for. If all the Brexit-supporting MP's had joined the government in the vote last night, the motion would have passed and we would be definitively on our way to leaving the EU. But they didn't, and we're not

 

[Simster]

Why did you italicise 'elected', as if that was somehow something I hadn't grasped? The people elected MPs who are against Brexit, so the mess that followed was predictable and would have happened regardless of who was in power.

Well your assertion is that the problem is caused by the fact that most MPs are anti Brexit, when actually I believe that whilst that fact is true, it isn't a cause of the mess at all. I think they'd all carry out the Brexit result if there was a sensible deal on the table, but the one negotiated is absolutely appalling. You'd have to be insane to think *anyone* voted for that.

My issue is that you think I'm just claiming that Labour would do a bad job of running the country because I don't like Labour, but I have voted for Labour, more than once. I just think they'd do a bad job with their current leader. You, however, are anti-tory, and you'll blame them for the situation even when it's not all their doing.

So you voted Labour once whereas I haven't voted Tory. I guess that makes you far more level headed than me then, and isn't ridiculous petty point scoring at all.

I think you need to step back and read what was written because I don't think you're responding to what I said at all. Chicken Run posted that Labour would be worse, I disagreed because I simply don't believe anyone could do a worse job in government than May and her laughable cronies. You then chimed in to say Labour would be worse, so I repeated myself. To clarify, how can anyone truly believe any other party would do a worse job than the current lot?

 

[Pavilionaire]

Tories will close ranks tonight, as the ERG's Mark Francois just said "I am a Tory first and foremost".

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes. Including the prime minister. But thats not what you and I are debating right now.

I think it is.

There is a majority in the house to vote for Brexit. They just can't decide what kind of Brexit to vote for. If all the Brexit-supporting MP's had joined the government in the vote last night, the motion would have passed and we would be definitively on our way to leaving the EU. But they didn't, and we're not

That's not true. Many Brexit-supporting MPs did vote for her deal yesterday. Some didn't, but not over 115. There just aren't that many Brexit-supporting MPs.

 

[LlcoolJ]

They said last night that basically the only MPs who voted for May's deal were the cabinet and others "on the payroll". So it wasn't even Pro v Anti Brexit, it was those who didn't want to lose their jobs v everyone else.

Just shows how completely shithouse the deal was, and how comprehensive the defeat was.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well your assertion is that the problem is caused by the fact that most MPs are anti Brexit, when actually I believe that whilst that fact is true, it isn't a cause of the mess at all. I think they'd all carry out the Brexit result if there was a sensible deal on the table, but the one negotiated is absolutely appalling.

I agree that that they'd carry it out if they liked the deal on the table, but I don't think any of them can agree a deal with the EU that enough MPs would like, particularly given the fact that we have a minority government.

So you voted Labour once whereas I haven't voted Tory.

No.

I have voted for Labour, more than once.

I guess that makes you far more level headed than me then, and isn't ridiculous petty point scoring at all.

You're being childish. It's not point scoring, I'm simply replying to your claim that I'm just anti-Labour, which I'm not. I am, however, anti-Corbyn.

I think you need to step back and read what was written because I don't think you're responding to what I said at all. Chicken Run posted that Labour would be worse, I disagreed because I simply don't believe anyone could do a worse job in government than May and her laughable cronies. You then chimed in to say Labour would be worse, so I repeated myself. To clarify, how can anyone truly believe any other party would do a worse job than the current lot?

Ok I'm assuming that you think Labour would be better. Or are you saying it would be just the same?

And it could be worse. As things stand, we're in limbo, we don't know what's going to happen. It's crap, but at least we haven't left with a terrible deal yet. Just as an example, actually leaving with no deal would be worse.

 

[TheJasperCo]

These things never turn out as dramatically as the worst-case scenarios, sadly. I think the Press Association's assessment is likely to be close to the mark, so ~170 margin of defeat.

I think the PA trolled me.

 

[Simster]

Ok I'm assuming that you think Labour would be better. Or are you saying it would be just the same?

I'm saying I doubt the state of the country under Corbyn would be worse than it is now.

And it could be worse.

I really don't think so.

 

[BensGrandad]

With tonights no confidence vote would a majority of 1 suffice for her to win or does it have to be a % eg 80% or whatever

 

[A1X]

With tonights no confidence vote would a majority of 1 suffice for her to win or does it have to be a % eg 80% or whatever

Simply majority.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I think it is.

That's not true. Many Brexit-supporting MPs did vote for her deal yesterday. Some didn't, but not over 115. There just aren't that many Brexit-supporting MPs.

You do love an argument, don't you. That bill last night was brought down by the ERG and the DUP, and Grieve's bunch couldn't have stopped it if everyone else was united.

If you're trying to make the case that Remain-supporting MP's are stopping Brexit, you're wrong. They will stop a no-deal Brexit, on the other hand.

 

[rippleman]

Dont understand the "how many allowed to vote" part. All of them unless "paired" with someone on other side but this would be difficult with parties divided as pairing usially agreed by whips. I understand one labour mp has ddlayed a c-section so she can vote.

Probably fixtures long ago but the Speaker doesn't vote and the Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats.

And nobody is going to risk "pairing" after that snide Tory **** agreed to pair with Jo Swinson when she was having a baby, and then allowed himself to be bullied by the Tory whips into voting anyway.

It was an abomination that Tulip Siddiq had to postpone her C-section. The Speaker was angered about it when it was raised by Point of Order. He had asked the Leader of the House to introduce a regulation so Tulip could vote but be excused attending the House. Leadsom refused to do it. Tulip didn't look that good so hopefully all goes well and she and baby Tulip are just fine and dandy

 

[jessiejames]

from the day of the referendum no one was ever going to win, which ever way they voted, outs would have voted out for differing reasons. Equals split 1, 2,3 etc. remains would have voted for differing reasons. Split 5,6,7 etc.

Commons vote. Tory’s split over in and out, each for various reasons, 10,11,12 etc. Labour split over in and out, each for their own reasons, splits 15,16,17 etc. And on and on and on.

So another people’s vote by definition won’t reconcile a 100% consensus . Commons debate likewise. Twas always going to be thus and no matter what happens now or how we get there, will always be thus.

Next time people desire a referendum or not, on any matter be careful what you wish for, you may well get it. By the way I wanted a referendum, not so sure as I would be so cavalier to want one again. My views of remain or out make no difference to how I feel about that.

No, who was nearest to the margin of defeat? Thank you for you comment though.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Probably fixtures long ago but the Speaker doesn't vote and the Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats.

And nobody is going to risk "pairing" after that snide Tory **** agreed to pair with Jo Swinson when she was having a baby, and then allowed himself to be bullied by the Tory whips into voting anyway.

It was an abomination that Tulip Siddiq had to postpone her C-section. The Speaker was angered about it when it was raised by Point of Order. He had asked the Leader of the House to introduce a regulation so Tulip could vote but be excused attending the House. Leadsom refused to do it. Tulip didn't look that good so hopefully all goes well and she and baby Tulip are just fine and dandy

Leadsom is vile.

 

[A1X]

Leadsom is vile.

Someone on Twitter once referred to her as Andrea Loathsome and since then it's been my go to way of referring to her

 

[kingcole]

One helluva speach by Mr Gove.