[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Bob!]

Revised predictor:

15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

What are the predictions for Southampton, Newcastle and Palace?

 

[Badger]

We'll be +7 this time next week

 

[FatSuperman]

Revised predictor:

15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

Is the target that Norwich get 1 from Watford and 6 from West Ham and Burnley? Because that is never, ever going to happen.

 

[Giraffe]

What are the predictions for Southampton, Newcastle and Palace?
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Here you go.

Revised predictor ahead of Saints inevitable defeat to Man City:

12 - Southampton 47
13 - Newcastle 45
14 - Palace 43
15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

We've got Burnley away last match. Since their return to the Premier League in 2016 Burnley have played every one of their final league fixtures at home, and lost them all.

 

[BLOCK F]

Phew, Liverpool have scored.

 

[rogersix]

We've got Burnley away last match. Since their return to the Premier League in 2016 Burnley have played every one of their final league fixtures at home, and lost them all.

statman!

 

[um bongo molongo]

Revised predictor:

15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

We’re a technicality away from being able to start the Teams that Can’t Catch us thread

 

[Bob!]

We’re a technicality away from being able to start the Teams that Can’t Catch us thread

Can start it Tuesday at 8 if Norwich don't win at Watford

 

[Giraffe]

Here you go.

Revised predictor ahead of Saints inevitable defeat to Man City:

12 - Southampton 47
13 - Newcastle 45
14 - Palace 43
15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

Then again

12 - Southampton 50
13 - Newcastle 45
14 - Palace 43
15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28

 

[Weststander]

Would 32 points be the lowest PL 18th place ever?

 

[Swansman]

Would 32 points be the lowest PL 18th place ever?

Nope. Burnley only got 30 in 2009-10.

 

[Dick Head]

It doesn't look like we'll be playing in Europe.

 

[Audax]

I've done this, using the following theory:

- Cross reference the form table position for each remaining game.
- If the teams are less than 5 places apart, give a draw.
- If the teams are 5 or more places apart, give a win to the higher team.

Villa and Bournemouth situation looks dire - no points at all for the rest of the season. I'm too lazy to update the chart image until after the next round is complete , but the summary result then becomes:

West Ham - 37
Brighton - 35
Watford - 30
Villa - 27
Bournemouth - 27
Norwich - 23

Updated, with revised predictions based on new last-6-matches form table:



Norwich now highlighted yellow in the Max row, as their max can now only equal our current points (given goal difference, even if they won all 5 and we lost all 5 I don't think they'd get ahead of us - would require a few thumpings for that to happen).

 

[Scoffers]

Emile Heskey doesn't reckon Villa or Bournemouth will win another game between them! West Ham are playing 3 of the teams in the bottom 5 so those results as much as anything else will shape how this all ends up. I am no mathematician but doesn't that also affect the max points, since they cannot all win those games!

 

[Audax]

We have our first team that cannot catch us:

 

[Giraffe]

A little irrelevant, but I like to update to the end of the season.

 

[Giraffe]

And up date on the bottom of the table after West Ham's defeat last night. Are any of the bottom 3 going to make a fight of it?!

12 - Southampton 50
13 - Newcastle 45
14 - Palace 43
15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 38
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 27

It all comes down to West Ham's games now really. I wonder if it might actually go against them that they are playing 3 of the bottom 4? Lose at Norwich and Brady will have a wet bed. Villa only need to get to within 3 points before that last game, and narrow the GD gap to make it very interesting.

Norwich (A)
Watford (H)
Man Utd (A)
Aston Villa (H)

 

[Stato]

Updated, with revised predictions based on new last-6-matches form table:

View attachment 125756

Norwich now highlighted yellow in the Max row, as their max can now only equal our current points (given goal difference, even if they won all 5 and we lost all 5 I don't think they'd get ahead of us - would require a few thumpings for that to happen).

So, if Villa get nothing from Man Utd tonight, leaving them needing 10 points from their last four games to overtake us, can we be confident enough in the unlikelyhood of this, to cheer them on in their next game? It's unlikely that we'll catch Palace, but after Villa they are left with Man Utd, Wolves and Spurs still to play. We would need two more wins than they manage. It would be very nice to go into the Burnley game looking to win to overtake them rather than still looking over our shoulder.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

So, if Villa get nothing from Man Utd tonight, leaving them needing 10 points from their last four games to overtake us, can we be confident enough in the unlikelyhood of this, to cheer them on in their next game? It's unlikely that we'll catch Palace, but after Villa they are left with Man Utd, Wolves and Spurs still to play. We would need two more wins than they manage. It would be very nice to go into the Burnley game looking to win to overtake them rather than still looking over our shoulder.

I will be.

I guess there's a chance of palace win being the result that makes us mathematically safe.
The usual tools will be back on here wittering away about that if they do.