[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[NooBHA]

Wolves winning every one of their games in the sample, despite Thursday night matches in the Europa League.

I wasn't really referencing Wolves.

It was more to do with those predicted results of only one point from those 7 matches

 

[Acker79]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

That is a depressing run of last twelve results for us. Only two wins in twelve games, following a run of 1 win in 12 games (a period in whichyour tracker predicted 4 wins).

 

[Weststander]

I wasn't really referencing Wolves.

It was more to do with those predicted results of only one point from those 7 matches

I did realise that.

I was widening the discussion, your post got me looking at Wolves in that table. Relentless wins despite playing twice a week compared to everyone else’s once.

My point, that in all the twists and turns to come, no result is obvious. [Other than ManC and Leicester swatting Brighton aside as they do].

 

[vagabond]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Newcastle 48
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 37
Watford 36
Aston Villa 34
Norwich 32

Whilst I generally enjoy all your stats and analysis I think you’ve under estimated our ability to get points. Specifically I don’t understand how we can assume to get 0 points from:

Wolves (a)
Arsenal (h)
Leicester (a)
Man Utd (h)
Man City (h)

Eg, Man U are hardly a force these days. City game now takes a different direction - can’t see the players being up for these sort of games now. Arsenal at home I can easily see us nicking at least a point.

I think we still have a bit of the Hughton mindset. With Potter I believe we can get points from the bigger teams.

 

[GT49er]

Whilst I generally enjoy all your stats and analysis I think you’ve under estimated our ability to get points. Specifically I don’t understand how we can assume to get 0 points from:

Wolves (a)
Arsenal (h)
Leicester (a)
Man Utd (h)
Man City (h)

Eg, Man U are hardly a force these days. City game now takes a different direction - can’t see the players being up for these sort of games now. Arsenal at home I can easily see us nicking at least a point.

I think we still have a bit of the Hughton mindset. With Potter I believe we can get points from the bigger teams.

See post #25 (and the OP).

 

[father_and_son]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Newcastle 48
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 37
Watford 36
Aston Villa 34
Norwich 32

There are a few "extra" points floating around though.?!

So Villa expect 1pt against West Ham, but West Ham expect 3.
As there are only 3pts available the total points here are overstated by a third. Obviously this isn't all games but the total points where bottom half play bottom half will all be exaggerated, so will overstate the points for the teams with an "easier" run.
What looked close will be even closer as the difference between best and worst can't be as large as you state here.

 

[vagabond]

See post #25 (and the OP).

Yeah I get the gist of the tracker, and I enjoy following it, I’m questioning a flaw in the calculations possibly leading to misleading results.

Generally speaking we’re making assumptions we should always be able to beat a team below us at home and lose or draw to a team above us at home (more to it, but largely speaking this is the basis). As we all know I’m sure Football doesn’t work like that.. and hasn’t happened for us so far in the PL! So I’d suggest caution extrapolating results.

Again, I really don’t see us getting 0 points total from these fixtures:

Wolves (a)
Arsenal (h)
Leicester (a)
Man Utd (h)
Man City (h)

 

[Stato]

Yeah I get the gist of the tracker, and I enjoy following it, I’m questioning a flaw in the calculations possibly leading to misleading results.

Generally speaking we’re making assumptions we should always be able to beat a team below us at home and lose or draw to a team above us at home (more to it, but largely speaking this is the basis). As we all know I’m sure Football doesn’t work like that.. and hasn’t happened for us so far in the PL! So I’d suggest caution extrapolating results.

Again, I really don’t see us getting 0 points total from these fixtures:

Wolves (a)
Arsenal (h)
Leicester (a)
Man Utd (h)
Man City (h)

I think you are taking this too literally. The tracker doesn't say that we won't get any points from those games, merely that, if we do, they are a bonus towards our survival total. A bonus which will be needed if we don't meet targets in the games against the bottom half. There is no actual expectation of where points will be gained, the model just shows that winning at home and drawing away against the bottom half will get a team to the 40 point mark and shows a running total against this target.

 

[FatSuperman]

I think Giraffe needs to put a disclaimer on every bloody post

 

[Goldstone1976]

That is a depressing run of last twelve results for us. Only two wins in twelve games, following a run of 1 win in 12 games (a period in whichyour tracker predicted 4 wins).

3/24 would be marginally worse than the sequence that got Hughton fired. I suspect that this realisation may have played a part in the partial demise of Potterball and the reintroduction of Glenn into the equation.

 

[Giraffe]

Still 3 points behind after yesterday's "predicted" point. Decent effort. Just need to beat Palace and get some bonus points from the four games after that and we will be okay. But with the points scheduled in those last three we would do well to be safe before the Newcastle game. Looks increasingly like we will need to win that one to stay up?

 

[Giraffe]

And after yesterday and today's games (subject to Arsenal drawing with Everton), this is how it now looks for the others:

Newcastle 47
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 36
Watford 36
Aston Villa 33
Norwich 32

A bad day for Eddie yesterday has pushed Bournemouth very close...

 

[Stato]

Just need to beat Palace and get some bonus points from the four games after that and we will be okay.

A win against Palace could be a very valuable psychological boost. Not just because it's them, but because winning it could in effect change us from being at the top of the bottom six pack to being at the bottom of the next group of seven, giving us bit of breathing space and easing the pressure going into a run of games where we'll have some free swings.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

A win against Palace could be a very valuable psychological boost. Not just because it's them, but because winning it could in effect change us from being at the top of the bottom six pack to being at the bottom of the next group of seven, giving us bit of breathing space and easing the pressure going into a run of games where we'll have some free swings.

Next week we need the grit we showed yesterday and the passing we saw before New Year and we'll go home very happy. Now is the time for the team to click!

 

[Albion in the north]

I dont know if its been mentioned on any if the other threads but, according to my son, we are the only team in the 91 not to have won in 2020.
Up until last weekend there were only 3 sides who had not won, Bristol Rovers (the side he supports), Us and them up the road.

 

[Weststander]

And after yesterday and today's games (subject to Arsenal drawing with Everton), this is how it now looks for the others:

Newcastle 47
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 36
Watford 36
Aston Villa 33
Norwich 32

A bad day for Eddie yesterday has pushed Bournemouth very close...

Tight for us.

Lose against CP and is your judgement that we’ll likely be relegated?

Minus 6.

 

[Stato]

I dont know if its been mentioned on any if the other threads but, according to my son, we are the only team in the 91 not to have won in 2020.
Up until last weekend there were only 3 sides who had not won, Bristol Rovers (the side he supports), Us and them up the road.

That may be the case, but we have also only lost twice this year. Of the bottom nine, only Watford match that. Not winning is making our lives difficult, but being hard to beat is giving us a chance to play ourselves out of a bad spell.

 

[sparkie]

I dont know if its been mentioned on any if the other threads but, according to my son, we are the only team in the 91 not to have won in 2020.
Up until last weekend there were only 3 sides who had not won, Bristol Rovers (the side he supports), Us and them up the road.

It is true.

Let's hope palace manage to be the first team of the decade to lose to us.

 

[Machiavelli]

Tight for us.

Lose against CP and is your judgement that we’ll likely be relegated?

Minus 6.

This tracker usually becomes less useful (or totals need adjusting) as the season enters the final third, as the survival total is set too high.
We've also got Arsenal and United at home coming up, for which the tracker predicts zero points but, over the past two seasons, we've picked up an average of five points out of six from them.

 

[sparkie]

Indeed, the 40 point target for the tracker builds in a small buffer, as a lower total will most likely be needed this season. Perhaps 37 or less, so -3 currently isn't over worrysome really.