[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Weststander]

Let's face it, we are now up against it. The road to 40 points is looking tough. But beat Arsenal at home for example and it could all be fine again. On a knife edge. But 3 points behind the tracker.

We’ve been saying similar for weeks. But this time, shirley decisive - after Blades and Palace, we will know wtf is happening.


If the season gone was smoothed out, we’re a WDLLWDLL team. The PL’s a funny old beast.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Bang on target to get the 37pts that will keep us up.

Obviously is a bit harder in real life than on paper. But if offered at the start of the season we’d have happily taken being 9/2 odds about relegation at this stage...

 

[dazzer6666]

Those last three games are going to be interesting

Reckon we’ll need maybe 6 points from those three games by that time. Squeaky bum time.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Average a point a game and we're safe, job done!

 

[Mellotron]

I think we'll stay up, but I think we'll go into those last 3 games still not certain of our fate. Fortunately, our last 3 games are all against sides who SHOULD be on the beach by that point.

Saints - A
Newcastle - H
Burnley - A

All sides we have a better goal difference than, and can be better than on our day.

 

[FatSuperman]

For those of us looking for an optimistic view, the below data shows that we are heading for our traditional 'pull it out the bag' phase. When you look at how we are faring now, versus the same opponents for the previous two seasons, we are still doing ok. We are also tracking in line with the flat / triangle Earth society model. I'm telling myself that we'll do better against those teams that try to play.

I hope this brings some comfort.

 

[Steve in Japan]

For those of us looking for an optimistic view, the below data shows that we are heading for our traditional 'pull it out the bag' phase. When you look at how we are faring now, versus the same opponents for the previous two seasons, we are still doing ok. We are also tracking in line with the flat / triangle Earth society model. I'm telling myself that we'll do better against those teams that try to play.

I hope this brings some comfort.

View attachment 120037

View attachment 120039

I've always thought I was reasonably proficient at risk modelling, and I can't make head or tail of this. So far from bringing me any comfort, I now have a strong and lingering doubt that I am not as clever as I thought I was. To add to the relegation anxiety. Thanks very much.

 

[FatSuperman]

I've always thought I was reasonably proficient at risk modelling, and I can't make head or tail of this. So far from bringing me any comfort, I now have a strong and lingering doubt that I am not as clever as I thought I was. To add to the relegation anxiety. Thanks very much.

Oh dear! I've made things WORSER.

The black line is where we are, the other colours are simply previous season's totals. The key ones are Giraffe's model and the previous BHA PL seasons. Each of the previous seasons have two sets of results; one showing by game week, and one by opponent. The table just shows the actual results for those.

Other 'models' include the highest ever points total for safety, the lowest, Leicester's title-winning season, a flat 1.05 points per game to get you to 40 and a comparison against BT's 'the Script'

 

[Peter Grummit]

Oh dear! I've made things WORSER.

The black line is where we are, the other colours are simply previous season's totals. The key ones are Giraffe's model and the previous BHA PL seasons. Each of the previous seasons have two sets of results; one showing by game week, and one by opponent. The table just shows the actual results for those.

Other 'models' include the highest ever points total for safety, the lowest, Leicester's title-winning season, a flat 1.05 points per game to get you to 40 and a comparison against BT's 'the Script'

It's perfectly clear and interesting scenario analysis. Thank you.

It says one thing to me - we are where we would broadly expect to be.

 

[Giraffe]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Newcastle 48
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 37
Watford 36
Aston Villa 34
Norwich 32

 

[GT49er]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Yikes! That's too close for comfort!

 

[Giraffe]

Yikes! That's too close for comfort!

Especially as I’ve just noticed that this puts us in the bottom 3 with two games to go!

 

[helipilot]

You have Scumhampton getting 3 points off us and us getting 1 point off them! Same for a few other results that are key e.g. West Ham v Watford

 

[banjo]

You have Scumhampton getting 3 points off us and us getting 1 point off them!

We’re down

 

[Worried Man Blues]

I am probably being stupid but there are quite a few 4 pointers? W Ham at home 3 points Southampton at W Ham 1 point, I have started drinking Help

 

[Giraffe]

You have Scumhampton getting 3 points off us and us getting 1 point off them! Same for a few other results that are key e.g. West Ham v Watford

Indeed. That’s the whole point of thread. An unbiased approach.

Clearly those results become critical not both teams can get the same.

 

[NooBHA]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Newcastle 48
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 37
Watford 36
Aston Villa 34
Norwich 32

If your score predictions are correct. That run of games between Wolves and Man City is gonna have fans reaching for the Valium

 

[Stat Brother]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday

You do realise there are cover girls on Yugoslavian computer magazines to look at, don't you?

 

[Weststander]

If your score predictions are correct. That run of games between Wolves and Man City is gonna have fans reaching for the Valium

Wolves winning every one of their games in the sample, despite Thursday night matches in the Europa League.

 

[Weststander]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

Newcastle 48
Arsenal 47
Southampton 47
Palace 42
West Ham 38
Brighton 37
Bournemouth 37
Watford 36
Aston Villa 34
Norwich 32

Essentially our hopes of staying up rely on 4 points against SheffU and Palace.

So we’ll kind of know our fate by the end of this month!