[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Giraffe]

So here we go again. Bed wetting is old hat, so I've binned that. This season will be all about not bashing Potter.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker last season.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that all summer, and yes in the last two seasons we didn't quite need it but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to West Ham (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately).

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked last season although Burnley's fall from grace and Wolves strength muddled it a bit. I'd say that last season teams finished pretty much where they will do again, with Wolves now recognised for their strength and Burnley in amongst the "beatables" again. I also don't see any of the newly promoted teams finishing higher than the bottom ten.

Unlike last season there is a pretty even split with points expected almost evenly between each half. 19 in the first 19 games, 21 in the second. However you'll see when I post the Europe tracker shortly this is a bit deceptive as those arguably additional winnable games at home against the likes of Leicester, Everton and Wolves (outside top six but not in bottom ten) are more in the first half.

So here it is for the coming season:

- First five games suggest 10 points. A big early test that could raise expectations of Potter World too high in my view.
- Next 11 games just 5 points. Has Potter lost his magic.....
- 19 points from 12 games makes sure the NSC sheets are dry again and we think we are almost safe (sound familiar?)
- Then just 1 point in a tough looking run of 7 games means we still have work to do.
- We edge to 40 with 5 points out of the last 3 games.

Easy.

I'll guess at 43-46 points this season by the way. Last season I guessed at 46-48, so ignore anything I say!

 

[Bozza]

Can you graph that now please?

The chaining gradient across the course of the season will give a good visual indication of how it may shape up.

 

[Titanic]

10 points from the first 5 games? We could be 'behind the curve' all season if we don't get off to a flyer.

 

[Giraffe]

And here is Europe. The assumption being that we need 56 points. Which would have been enough in the last two seasons. This means additional results against Leicester, Everton, Wolves and Man Utd.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

Love it I feel calmer already, keeps me sane.

 

[Giraffe]

And for those of an impatient disposition here is the graph.....

The most telling thing is how like last season the first run of games are the same for both staying up and Europe and then the Europe tracker rises rapidly which really highlights how we have an easier than average start but it gets tougher very quickly.

Also makes me wander if the fixture computer is doing something here that we don't realise? I know they try to avoid big teams playing each other late on but does this somehow knock on to others?

 

[Brovion]

Great stuff, but please no orange 'Euro tracker' this year Giraffe! Including that was obviously the reason we struggled last year.


EDIT: Bugger, he's done it. We're doomed. Doomed I tells ya.

 

[Goring-by-Seagull]

Looking forward to the first person to comment "WHAT!? You've predicted we'll get ZERO points from any of the top 6!? This is FLAWED as we beat Man Utd TWICE, beat ARSENAL, DREW with SPUDS etc etc etc "

 

[Giraffe]

Great stuff, but please no orange 'Euro tracker' this year Giraffe! Including that was obviously the reason we struggled last year.


EDIT: Bugger, he's done it. We're doomed. Doomed I tells ya.

I must confess, I did hesitate! But then thought I'd get slated if I lost it. It does provide an interesting comparison I think, and highlights how slender the judgement of success or failure is.

 

[Thimble Keegan]

This is quite interesting, especially as I did the first ever "Stay-Up - O - Meter" on here many years back.

The thing is, there is a far, far simpler way of tracking survival and that is to average a point-per-game. So long as we have more or an equal number of points per matches played then we are on track to stay-up.

Albion & England forever.

Thimble Keegan
Westminster BHA

 

[Stat Brother]

And here is Europe. The assumption being that we need 56 points. Which would have been enough in the last two seasons. This means additional results against Leicester, Everton, Wolves and Man Utd.

What about the tracker we would be aspiring too if last season wasn't such an abomination, the:-

'Slow Progression Up The League-o-Meter'.

set for somewhere like 50 points!

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Safe by Feb, love it!!!

 

[happypig]

Bashing the Potter is my new favourite euphamism

 

[Bozza]

34 points at the end of February having just beaten Palace. What could possibly go wrong from there?

(Last season: 33 points on 9th March having just beaten Palace)

 

[el punal]

Can you graph that now please?

The chaining gradient across the course of the season will give a good visual indication of how it may shape up.

If we’d had a graph for the last four months of last season it would have shown a long, limp dick impression. We need the footballing equivalent of Viagra for August and beyond - up for it going forward, shooting from all angles but with a strong, stiff defence as well.

I think I’ll lie down for a while.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Looking forward to the first person to comment "WHAT!? You've predicted we'll get ZERO points from any of the top 6!? This is FLAWED as we beat Man Utd TWICE, beat ARSENAL, DREW with SPUDS etc etc etc "

More the ZERO points from Everton, Leicester and Wolves all at home before Christmas. I'll be disappointed if that happens.

 

[Giraffe]

34 points at the end of February having just beaten Palace. What could possibly go wrong from there?

(Last season: 33 points on 9th March having just beaten Palace)

Yes I noticed that. It does seem all very familiar doesn't it. Let's hope it quickly becomes different in a good way.

 

[Stat Brother]

34 points at the end of February having just beaten Palace. What could possibly go wrong from there?

(Last season: 33 points on 9th March having just beaten Palace)

In fairness last season it had already 'gone wrong' for 2 months, the palace result was the outlier.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

If we’d had a graph for the last four months of last season it would have shown a long, limp dick impression. We need the footballing equivalent of Viagra for August and beyond - up for it going forward, shooting from all angles but with a strong, stiff defence as well.

I think I’ll lie down for a while.

That is when the Potter magic will kick in, that's when the Psychology MA comes into affect and BHAFC the musical named '50 points and flying' premiers at the Dome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj6EhIHzghM

 

[Weststander]

Quick work [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION].

I see you've got us down for Hughton-esque runs in Nov/Dec and Mar/Apr. Hopefully Potter pulls off some surprise results.