[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER

[Giraffe]

So 2 points lost against the tracker. Frustrating. But I'd take a point tonight provided we stuff Palace in the next game. 3 ahead though.

 

[Weststander]

So 2 points lost against the tracker. Frustrating. But I'd take a point tonight provided we stuff Palace in the next game. 3 ahead though.

I enjoy seeing your tracker and it serves its purpose well.

When the season started some might’ve considered Villa a relegation candidate again, but that ship had sailed when they financially doped again taking their spending in 18 months to £0.25B They consider themselves Europa League spot candidates. So tonight’s point augmented to the 3 away, is a great return again huge spenders.

(I do realise how you compute your targeted 40 points).

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Decent result but a missed opportunity today. Still looking good with Palarse looming.

 

[Weststander]

Spreadex current entire season points spreads:

 

[Goldstone1976]

Although we’re playing well, and I doubt we’ll go down, it does have to be said that the tracker has us picking up 9 points from Everton, Dirty, and West Ham. I can’t see that happening.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

Spreadex current entire season points spreads:

View attachment 133833

If I knew what that meant I’d probably be happy

 

[Weststander]

If I knew what that meant I’d probably be happy

Allardyce is shit, GP’s amazing.

 

[Reddleman]

Although we’re playing well, and I doubt we’ll go down, it does have to be said that the tracker has us picking up 9 points from Everton, Dirty, and West Ham. I can’t see that happening.

To be fair it also has us down as picking up no points from Wolves or Sheffield United. I can’t see that happening either.

 

[Machiavelli]

Although we’re playing well, and I doubt we’ll go down, it does have to be said that the tracker has us picking up 9 points from Everton, Dirty, and West Ham. I can’t see that happening.

Me neither, but:
1, we'll get some from elsewhere
2, and most importantly, the Tracker becomes increasingly irrelevant as the season progresses because 40 points is way, way too high. 30 will probably be enough this season. The comparative Tracker, on the other hand, is such a welcome addition.

 

[um bongo molongo]

I love this tracker. But its biggest problem this year is that it assumes we are better at home than away...

 

[Giraffe]

24 game comparison with all Premier League seasons:

2020-21: 26 points
2019-20: 25 points
2018-19: 26 points
2017-18: 23 points

Pretty consistent.

 

[chaileyjem]

24 game comparison with all Premier League seasons:

Pretty consistent.

with form to end of season..

2020-21: 26 points (Next 10: Palace, West Brom, Leicester, Southampton, Newcastle, Man United, Everton, Chelsea, Sheff U, Leeds)
2019-20: 25 points (16 points from 14)
2018-19: 26 points (10 points from 14)
2017-18: 23 points (17 points from 14)

 

[nickbrighton]

Any one know how we are comparing to previous seasons in regard to points total from the same teams played? A while ago I think we were 6 over last year (though I may have imagined that!)

 

[Giraffe]

A quick update of the league table after last night's games. Getting a bit tight for Newcastle now.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

A quick update of the league table after last night's games. Getting a bit tight for Newcastle now.

Big swing possible in our next game....

 

[Mellotron]

Although we’re playing well, and I doubt we’ll go down, it does have to be said that the tracker has us picking up 9 points from Everton, Dirty, and West Ham. I can’t see that happening.

Yes, but it also has us getting 2 points from 5 games against West Brom, Leicester, Southampton, Sheff Utd and Wolves. That's how the tracker balances itself out.

 

[warmleyseagull]

I love this tracker. But its biggest problem this year is that it assumes we are better at home than away...

Made same point on #397 when we were 7 behind assuming 3 for A win and 1 for H, way behind tracker.. Evened out in last few weeks so tracker would have us on 28 points if assume 3 pts away and 1 home, i.e. 2 behind. More realistically, I would suggest 0pts against top 9, and 2 pts for any game H or A against bottom 10. This would make us 2 points ahead presently, virtually no difference as would be expected as season progresses. But IMO we were misreading tracker a few weeks ago when the balance of H & A games was less even.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Any one know how we are comparing to previous seasons in regard to points total from the same teams played? A while ago I think we were 6 over last year (though I may have imagined that!)

No, and unconvinced of its usefulness. One consistent problem since promotion has been winning against teams in bottom 3; last season was marked improvement with W4 D1 L1 against the 3 relegated teams. This season has reverted to type with 4 draws so far so we sort of need to be well ahead on the rest to counter.

 

[Peter Grummit]

If I knew what that meant I’d probably be happy ��

It means our expected points is now 44, finishing 14th. Which we'd all take in a heartbeat.

Encouraging.

 

[Audax]

What might be interesting to take a statistical look into at some point, is an analysis of each match played this season and last using the recent form of the team as a guide. Would be interesting to see if any of our prolonged losing streaks in recent seasons have coincided with an unlucky habit of running into sides that are currently in form (regardless of their nominal league position). Or vice versa how we do against sides that are out of form - do we have a habit of losing those matches and providing that team with a springboard back into form?