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[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Steady. To quote Spud Gun from an episode of Bottom: Are you on drugs? Can I have some?
34 points would breeze it this year IMHO
nickbrighton
Well-known member
- Feb 19, 2016
- 2,127
Quick update of the full league after the latest round of games which put Palace below us due to losing at Leeds. I mean, who doesn't beat Leeds these days
I love this table. In some ways more than the graph itself. Whilst the graph is brilliant in how it shows how we are doing, the table is one of only two (The other being the excellent "the other14" on twitter) that clearly shows how we are doing in relation to our rivals. I think all through this season it has consistently shown us as being OK despite our apparent precarious position in the actual table. It takes out all the games in hand malarkey and gives a real perspective on the overall position we are all in.
- Jun 27, 2012
- 14,612
After Game 23:
17/18 - 15th - 23 points (17 points from last 15 games)
18/19 - 13th - 26 points (10 points from last 15 games)
19/20 - 15th - 25 points (16 points from last 15 games)
20/21 - 15th - 25 points ( ??)
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,192
Going to be nip and tuck between us and Palace this season.Quick update of the full league after the latest round of games which put Palace below us due to losing at Leeds
Sporting Index have us 0.5pts ahead of Palace at the moment on 44pts at the end of the season. Remarkably similar to the tracker.
Biggest discrepancy between spreads and tracker is West Brom. You can buy WBA points at just 24 while the Tracker has them on target for 31...
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Oh, me too. I think the Tracker becomes increasingly less relevant as you enter the last third of the season, certainly in terms of being a 'Staying Up Tracker'. The survival total has been way below the 40 points of the Tracker in each of our first three seasons, and my prediction is that it'll be even lower for this one. I'd be extremely confident once we've got to 32 points, but suspect that 30 will be enough. So just 5 short, with 15 games to go. The games against the likes of Newcastle, Palace and Wolves may well prove pivotal in how we finish as direct comparisons/competitors, rather than being key in terms of survival.
So matching that terrible (still shudder when I think of the Bournemouth game) run in Hughton's last season would get us to 35 points. Feels like we should be able to do that.
banjo
GOSBTS
35 should be enough.
Just alighted on a new metric (well, new to me - but it seems it's been around for donkeys years): "Passes per defensive action" (PPDA)...it measures the average number of passes you allow the opposition (in their half) before you win the ball back. In other words, it measures how effectively you press. The one drawback of the table below is that Leeds are top, but on the plus side it shows that we're a top 10 team, which Tony will like! Another one of those stats which seems to indicate that we're headed in the right direction.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Yes, we're getting better at the press. Interesting to see that the ageing lot at Palace are flirting with relegation in this category. Can't be too long before it's translated into the real thing. I think most of their squad is up for contract renewal in the next 18 months. I doubt that level of turnover would be a good thing.
The analysis on pressing and how teams respond to it is really interesting. No surprise to see Leeds top, high press is an obsession for Biesla. It’s also noticeable that we are getting much better at evading the press as well. Bissouma and Alzate have really worked on this and apparently Caicedo and Karbownik have the potential to excel here as well.
- Jun 27, 2012
- 14,612
Actually it was 11 points from the last 15 - which took us to 36 points in 2018/19. My bad maths.
but yep. 36 should be enough this year.
It was P15, W2, D4, L9 in the 18/19 run in.
In our first 15 games this season it was
P15, W2, D7, L6 so only 13 points
Medwayseagull
JCB
I make it 10 pts for the last 15 in 18/19.
I suppose, either 11 or 10, not many points. However, as CJ points out, we struggled to generate points early on in the season, so could happen again. But it doesn't feel to me like that's our trajectory right now.
- Jun 27, 2012
- 14,612
It was 10 points but it took us to 36 . And i think i had us at 25 by game 23 when it should be 26!. Someone should sub my posts!!
Either way...we're on track - even with a dreadful run in as bad as 18/19 - to keep our heads above water.
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,217
- Thread starter
- #498
It is interesting, especially where you have teams like Leeds and then ourselves bucking the trend of the league table which generally stacks up that the greater the press is the higher in the league you will be. West Ham also bucking this trend the other way.
Not surprised to see "lazy" teams like West Brom, Newcastle and Palace occupying some of the low spots.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,366
Having glanced at the thread about Newcastle and Callum Wilson's injury, I wondered how well the bottom three had to do in the remaining games in order to reach the magic 38 points.
Sheffield United need 1.8 points per game, WBA 1.73 and Fulham 1.44. This means that the bottom two now need to gain points at a rate that, if sustained across the season, would probably see them in a Champions League spot. Fulham would have to get points at the same rate that Sheffield United did to finish ninth last year.
Given that every team above is currently averaging at least the point a game needed to reach 38 and that Burnley only need to match what Aston Villa got to finish 18th last season and Newcastle and Brighton would reach the target if they perform at the rate that 19th placed Watford did over 2019/20, it is looking very very bad for the bottom three sides.
Sheffield United need 1.8 points per game, WBA 1.73 and Fulham 1.44. This means that the bottom two now need to gain points at a rate that, if sustained across the season, would probably see them in a Champions League spot. Fulham would have to get points at the same rate that Sheffield United did to finish ninth last year.
Given that every team above is currently averaging at least the point a game needed to reach 38 and that Burnley only need to match what Aston Villa got to finish 18th last season and Newcastle and Brighton would reach the target if they perform at the rate that 19th placed Watford did over 2019/20, it is looking very very bad for the bottom three sides.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I've said it before, I'll be supremely confident if we get to 32 points (ie 7 away), but would be surprised if the current bottom 3 get into the 30s.