[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 27 Update

[saafend_seagull]

Current projections are
6th -64.3 points
7th/8th - 60.5 points

Also since about 7 teams going for those places I can see the average slightly increasing. Newcastle have by far the easiest run in after today’s game, so would say they are nailed for top 6.

There is a chance only top 6 in the league gets Europe. Realistically it’s top 7.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Spread Markets see us on around 59pts, battling it out with Bournemouth for 7th spot.

 

[Official Old Man]

Which team will fall apart first. Some huge 6 pointer fixtures coming up, starting with tonight.
We need to secure a slot before the last weekend, although Liverpool & Spurs may well be on holiday by then (Ali Mc with another hangover).

 

[Machiavelli]

Spread Markets see us on around 59pts, battling it out with Bournemouth for 7th spot.


View attachment 197343

Yup. They know what they're doing and, for most clubs, their final points total won't be too far off that range. Sell Southampton and Leicester look good options to me, potentially Ipswich too.

 

[Titanic]

The Opta Supercomputer view is less optimistic.​

Champions League qualification: How Premier League race stands and why England could get five spots

The Premier League race to secure European football is hotting up - BBC Sport looks at who stands where and why a fifth place may be available.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Current projections are
6th -64.3 points
7th/8th - 60.5 points

Also since about 7 teams going for those places I can see the average slightly increasing. Newcastle have by far the easiest run in after today’s game, so would say they are nailed for top 6.

There is a chance only top 6 in the league gets Europe. Realistically it’s top 7.

Are those pts totals from spread books?

Sporting Index currently predict something like....

1. Liverpool 88
2. Arsenal 77
3. City 68
4. Chelsea 64
5. Newcastle 64
-----------------
6. Forest 63
7. Bournemouth 59
8. Brighton 59
-----------------
9. Villa 56
10. Fulham 55
11. Brentford 51
12. Palace 50
13. Tottenham 49

Emphasises how massive that "width of a NS post" moment could be come the end of the season...

Seems our expected finish is now firmish at 7th or 8th. With difference upwards to 4th/5th/6th positions similar to difference downwards to 9th/10th positions.

 

[GT49er]

Are those pts totals from spread books?

Sporting Index currently predict something like....

1. Liverpool 88
2. Arsenal 77
3. City 68
4. Chelsea 64
5. Newcastle 64
-----------------
6. Forest 63
7. Bournemouth 59
8. Brighton 59
-----------------
9. Villa 56
10. Fulham 55
11. Brentford 51
12. Palace 50
13. Tottenham 49

Emphasises how massive that "width of a NS post" moment could be come the end of the season...

Seems our expected finish is now firmish at 7th or 8th. With difference upwards to 4th/5th/6th positions similar to difference downwards to 9th/10th positions.

If we get five CL places this year (as looks likely) and the cups are won by teams in the top five or six (thus freeing up a Europa place and a Conference place for League positions) then I think 8th. place could be enough for a Conference League place. Wouldn't complain...........................

 

[SweatyMexican]

I’m hoping some teams fall off. We don’t want to chase a result against either Liverpool (hopefully title winners by then!) or Tottenham for our last two fixtures.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

A City points deduction, would improve things a bit (unless they win the FA Cup)

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Nice that even if we get our routine loss against Fulham both Man City and Aston Villa present very achievable opportunities for bonus points.

 

[sir_gullahad]

I think that we will see plenty of strange-looking results before the end of the season.

The Championship and relegation positions are pretty much settled. Throw in the usual bunch of teams heading to the beach early, or on the other hand, previous no-hopers playing for a new contract or a starting place next season. Some teams with fixture pile-up, others with injuries.

Interesting times!

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Nice that even if we get our routine loss against Fulham both Man City and Aston Villa present very achievable opportunities for bonus points.

I think City may have improved since we last played them. Still possible of course...

 

[Insel affe]

I’m hoping some teams fall off. We don’t want to chase a result against either Liverpool (hopefully title winners by then!) or Tottenham for our last two fixtures.

Nah, no worries....

Liverpool will be on the beach.

Tottenham will be tinkering with a new look ready for life without Son...

 

[Winker]

Current projections are
6th -64.3 points
7th/8th - 60.5 points

Also since about 7 teams going for those places I can see the average slightly increasing. Newcastle have by far the easiest run in after today’s game, so would say they are nailed for top 6.

There is a chance only top 6 in the league gets Europe. Realistically it’s top 7.

Going purely on our points per game average this season so far (1.59), we should finish on 60/61.

So bang on 7th/8th.

 

[Weststander]

The Opta Supercomputer view is less optimistic.​

Champions League qualification: How Premier League race stands and why England could get five spots

The Premier League race to secure European football is hotting up - BBC Sport looks at who stands where and why a fifth place may be available.

www.bbc.co.uk

View attachment 197348

OPTA's update 4 hours ago predicts us finishing 8th. That's likely enough for Europe.

https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league

 

[saafend_seagull]

OPTA's update 4 hours ago predicts us finishing 8th. That's likely enough for Europe.

https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league

Fa cup is completely open though, Newcastle and Liverpool are nailed top 6 given newcastles remaining fixtures.

If say this happened

Newcastle win league cup and finish 7th
Villa win fa cup and finish 8th

1-5 = CL
6 = Europa
Newcastle = conference league
Villa = Europa league

8 doesn’t get Europe.

If Newcastle finish top 5 it’s very certain the top 8 get Europe though.

 

[Weststander]

Fa cup is completely open though, Newcastle and Liverpool are nailed top 6 given newcastles remaining fixtures.

If say this happened

Newcastle win league cup and finish 7th
Villa win fa cup and finish 8th

1-5 = CL
6 = Europa
Newcastle = conference league
Villa = Europa league

8 doesn’t get Europe.

If Newcastle finish top 5 it’s very certain the top 8 get Europe though.

What happens if LFC win the LC and ManC win the FAC and finish third?

 

[DJ Chi]

Fa cup is completely open though, Newcastle and Liverpool are nailed top 6 given newcastles remaining fixtures.

If say this happened

Newcastle win league cup and finish 7th
Villa win fa cup and finish 8th

1-5 = CL
6 = Europa
Newcastle = conference league
Villa = Europa league

8 doesn’t get Europe.

If Newcastle finish top 5 it’s very certain the top 8 get Europe though.

If Villa and Newcastle don't finish top 6 though, it's a lot more likely that we are

 

[Dick Swiveller]

The Opta Supercomputer view is less optimistic.​

Champions League qualification: How Premier League race stands and why England could get five spots

The Premier League race to secure European football is hotting up - BBC Sport looks at who stands where and why a fifth place may be available.

www.bbc.co.uk

View attachment 197348

 

[GT49er]

What happens if LFC win the LC and ManC win the FAC and finish third?

8th. then gets Conference League.