[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 25 Update

[Hiheidi]

Liverpool home and City away are the toughest, but other than that it's a fairly representative set of 13 fixtures as far as Premier League standard goes. We've played 6 of our 2nd-half-of-season fixtures and got 3 of the current top 6 out of the way already.

If the results of the remaining 13 fixtures were exactly the same as when we played said teams during the first half of the season, we'd get 18 points and finish on 55. (We're one point up after the first six games compared to those reverse fixtures in the first half of the season).

 

[El Turi]

At this stage last season, we had 1 more point than we do right now. We then went on to only win 2 more matches all season and took 11 points from our last 13 games. It would be disappointing if we didn’t improve on that this season.

 

[warmleyseagull]

You do it your way then.

The rest of us will follow the tracker!

Matter of choice. Use Tarot cards if you wish, up to you.

I was a tracker fanatic in early PL seasons; it was very useful when scrapping against relegation and winning only 9 matches a season. Being able to identify the 'winnable games' meant you could take comfort in the winless spells that some good news was round the corner. And the favouring of home games was closer to reality: 17/18 22 points at home equalled 55% points earned; 18/19 23 points 64%, 19/20 22 points 54%, although never been anywhere near the 75% that tracker models.

It started to work less well in all the next 3 seasons when we were actually higher in away results table than home: in 20/21 20 home points 48%, and particularly in 21/22 22 points 43% (when we were 5th in away results table). The following season it was 55% though we were 4th in away results table. Last season back to better home: 30 points 55%, this season so far 18 points 49%.

TBH, making up a method of achieving 60 points (say 15W and 15D) and allocating them randomly (or maybe assume no wins against Fulham/Liverpool/Arsenal) across 38 matches would work equally well and more closely reflect that we do not achieve 75% home points and are as good against the top current 5 teams as the bottom 5.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Hwretic

Matter of choice. Use Tarot cards if you wish, up to you.

I was a tracker fanatic in early PL seasons; it was very useful when scrapping against relegation and winning only 9 matches a season. Being able to identify the 'winnable games' meant you could take comfort in the winless spells that some good news was round the corner. And the favouring of home games was closer to reality: 17/18 22 points at home equalled 55% points earned; 18/19 23 points 64%, 19/20 22 points 54%, although never been anywhere near the 75% that tracker models.

It started to work less well in all the next 3 seasons when we were actually higher in away results table than home: in 20/21 20 home points 48%, and particularly in 21/22 22 points 43% (when we were 5th in away results table). The following season it was 55% though we were 4th in away results table. Last season back to better home: 30 points 55%, this season so far 18 points 49%.

TBH, making up a method of achieving 60 points (say 15W and 15D) and allocating them randomly (or maybe assume no wins against Fulham/Liverpool/Arsenal) across 38 matches would work equally well and more closely reflect that we do not achieve 75% home points and are as good against the top current 5 teams as the bottom 5.

Heretic!!

 

[Gabbiano]

Matter of choice. Use Tarot cards if you wish, up to you.

I was a tracker fanatic in early PL seasons; it was very useful when scrapping against relegation and winning only 9 matches a season. Being able to identify the 'winnable games' meant you could take comfort in the winless spells that some good news was round the corner. And the favouring of home games was closer to reality: 17/18 22 points at home equalled 55% points earned; 18/19 23 points 64%, 19/20 22 points 54%, although never been anywhere near the 75% that tracker models.

It started to work less well in all the next 3 seasons when we were actually higher in away results table than home: in 20/21 20 home points 48%, and particularly in 21/22 22 points 43% (when we were 5th in away results table). The following season it was 55% though we were 4th in away results table. Last season back to better home: 30 points 55%, this season so far 18 points 49%.

TBH, making up a method of achieving 60 points (say 15W and 15D) and allocating them randomly (or maybe assume no wins against Fulham/Liverpool/Arsenal) across 38 matches would work equally well and more closely reflect that we do not achieve 75% home points and are as good against the top current 5 teams as the bottom 5.

I think it just needs an adjustment to the home/away balance.

Perhaps an assumption of an away win against the newly promoted three (previously a draw) and an assumption of a home draw against the 5-7th European teams (previously a win) would shift the balance to something more realistic. Notwithstanding the fact that we tend to f*** up against the promoted sides, of course.

 

[Audax]

Matter of choice. Use Tarot cards if you wish, up to you.

I was a tracker fanatic in early PL seasons; it was very useful when scrapping against relegation and winning only 9 matches a season. Being able to identify the 'winnable games' meant you could take comfort in the winless spells that some good news was round the corner. And the favouring of home games was closer to reality: 17/18 22 points at home equalled 55% points earned; 18/19 23 points 64%, 19/20 22 points 54%, although never been anywhere near the 75% that tracker models.

It started to work less well in all the next 3 seasons when we were actually higher in away results table than home: in 20/21 20 home points 48%, and particularly in 21/22 22 points 43% (when we were 5th in away results table). The following season it was 55% though we were 4th in away results table. Last season back to better home: 30 points 55%, this season so far 18 points 49%.

TBH, making up a method of achieving 60 points (say 15W and 15D) and allocating them randomly (or maybe assume no wins against Fulham/Liverpool/Arsenal) across 38 matches would work equally well and more closely reflect that we do not achieve 75% home points and are as good against the top current 5 teams as the bottom 5.

OK. But for most of us, the tracker isn't intended to be a predictor of reality. We don't particularly care about the real statistics you've just presented, or whether our home or away form is better than the tracker postulates. What we care about is that the tracker provides a sensible framework around which we can track how well we're doing each season. It's consistent from one season to another, and allows us to compare seasons against each other. It also allows us to compare where we are at against other teams, because all teams are being marked against the same standard regardless of any other variables (such as home / away form).

It works. There's no need to try to force it to fit reality.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Liverpool home and City away are the toughest, but other than that it's a fairly representative set of 13 fixtures as far as Premier League standard goes. We've played 6 of our 2nd-half-of-season fixtures and got 3 of the current top 6 out of the way already.

Very strong possibly that Liverpool will be champions by the time we play them.
We have often done well when playing the newly crowned champions at the Amex.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

I always enjoy "the tracker predictions aren't realistic" season

 

[Home and Away]

A quick question: what was the (un)official target for the club that was going around last season? Was it "4 seasons out of 6 in European competitions" or something like that? Did I imagine the whole thing? and if I didn't is it still that? I'm not talking about the "established top 10 pl club" stuff that has been the target for a long time.

 

[darkwolf666]

A quick question: what was the (un)official target for the club that was going around last season? Was it "4 seasons out of 6 in European competitions" or something like that? Did I imagine the whole thing? and if I didn't is it still that? I'm not talking about the "established top 10 pl club" stuff that has been the target for a long time.

As I mentioned on another thread, I am a sucker for a link to back up statistics or targets. Do you have a link to this, or more information who in the club made this statement? Or am I misunderstanding, was this a fan expectation?

 

[Home and Away]

As I mentioned on another thread, I am a sucker for a link to back up statistics or targets. Do you have a link to this, or more information who in the club made this statement? Or am I misunderstanding, was this a fan expectation?

Not sure... I just remember there being some sort of talk about the expectations. Maybe around time when RDZ alledgedly was having a "moan" about lack ambition or something... It could have been on twitter or here.

 

[schmunk]

I always enjoy "the tracker predictions aren't realistic" season

#trusttheprocesstracker

 

[huzzah]

Very strong possibly that Liverpool will be champions by the time we play them.
We have often done well when playing the newly crowned champions at the Amex.

when we played Man City with BDBs winner they had already one the league, so I'm with you ... Top ten again ole ole!

 

[Greg Bobkin]

A quick question: what was the (un)official target for the club that was going around last season? Was it "4 seasons out of 6 in European competitions" or something like that? Did I imagine the whole thing? and if I didn't is it still that? I'm not talking about the "established top 10 pl club" stuff that has been the target for a long time.

I don't think anyone from the club would say something so specific in public. My understanding – based on what HAS been said by Bloom and Barbs – is that the goal (date unspecified) is for the club to become 'an established top 10 PL club'. I took that to mean more often than not in the top 10 by the end of the season, with the hope of European competition along the way. What that DOESN'T mean is top 10 every season – not yet, anyway.

As an aside, some of the comments highlighted the difference in approach from supporters. I'm very much in the 'one game at a time' and 'let's just get to 40 points' camp – dull, I know (and I don't care). But other people are already plotting how many points they 'expect' the club to get, otherwise it will be a disappointment. I'm not saying either way is right or wrong, but it's easy to see why there is so much outrage and upset – anger, even – on here, when things don't go the way fans think they should.

TL;DR: Trust the facking tracker and take each game as it comes.

Edit: sorry – didn't read the last bit of your post properly, so talked about what you weren't talking about!

 

[Brovion]

Hwretic

Heretic!!

Indeed!

However, whisper it, this season in particular he does have a point. When the Tracker first started we never expected to get anything in matches against the Big Six. (There was even harrumphing about how the Championship was 'more fun'). We'd dutifully pick up the points against our fellow strugglers, get zilch against the big boys and the Tracker was a vital and accurate guide to our chances of staying up.

Now we've moved up the food chain to an extent and it's a whole new ball game - although God knows how you can revise the Tracker to reflect the fact that we can do the double over Man U but can't win a single game at home against the supposed minnows.

EDIT: Just adding I'm still a huge fan as it does give us a realistic framework of how the season should pan out, even if this one is an exception.

 

[Audax]

although God knows how you can revise the Tracker to reflect the fact that we can do the double over Man U but can't win a single game at home against the supposed minnows.

Don't need to IMO. Where we lose on one side, we gain on the other, and it balances out. IMO that's the beauty of the tracker. It sets a baseline (well, two baselines with the EU tracker). Forget about the specifics of how the baseline is set, that's irrelevant. What's relevant is that it is a baseline that is set in an understandable manner, that is consistent across seasons, and can be applied across all teams equally. There will always be seasons where we have anomalies against the tracker ... whether that be our current inability to beat bottom-6 sides while dominating top-6, or seasons where one or two teams find something special and go on a run that defies the tracker (Forest...).

It wasn't that long ago we had a bunch of moaning and agitation about poor results. And yes, we had a bad run. But just look at the tracker ... this season has had its ups and downs, sure, but as it stands today we're tracking to be the second best season since promotion. And we're currently still very much in the running for a European spot at the end of the season. And that in a season where Hurzeler is still establishing himself in the PL, with a squad that's undergone more-than-usual change coming into the season.

The tracker is fine as it is. Don't fix what's not broken .

 

[The Optimist]

There is an issue with the thread title. Keeping pace with the relegation tracker will not avoid Hurzeler bashing. Being behind the European tracker should not result in Hurzeler bashing.

Therefore I propose personalised trackers where we can individually set our minimum expectation for the season. Anyone fancy coding up such a tool?

Edit: I love the trackers, especially the tracker results for all teams in the league. It gives a nice indication of who is over or underperforming

 

[Bob!]

Relegation and Europe tracker league tables fairly closely aligned, other than Palace which suggests they may fall back a bit in the real league table as can't beat the bigger teams.

View attachment 195326View attachment 195327

How are we on this now please @Giraffe ?

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

Indeed!

However, whisper it, this season in particular he does have a point. When the Tracker first started we never expected to get anything in matches against the Big Six. (There was even harrumphing about how the Championship was 'more fun'). We'd dutifully pick up the points against our fellow strugglers, get zilch against the big boys and the Tracker was a vital and accurate guide to our chances of staying up.

Now we've moved up the food chain to an extent and it's a whole new ball game - although God knows how you can revise the Tracker to reflect the fact that we can do the double over Man U but can't win a single game at home against the supposed minnows.

EDIT: Just adding I'm still a huge fan as it does give us a realistic framework of how the season should pan out, even if this one is an exception.

Given where Man U are likely to finish up, I suspect the staying up tracker for next season will be predicting 3 points against them and 6 points on the European tracker.

 

[The Optimist]

Given where Man U are likely to finish up, I suspect the staying up tracker for next season will be predicting 3 points against them and 6 points on the European tracker.

3 points is impossible on the staying up tracker. It’s home win and away draw against the bottom 10.