[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 25 Update

[brighton_tom]

If the 40 points tracker is almost achieved, and 60 points is seen as in with a shout of Europe... what would represent a good, or satisfactory first season for FH? Europe would be great, but to say a 60+ point season is what FH needs to achieve in his first season to keep people happy would be quite a strict ask. So what would the minimum points be for you to say 'yeah he's had a solid first season, im happy with that'? I feel anything around mid 50s would be a decent first season effort.

 

[Perkino]

The "staying up" tracker shows 10 home fixtures where we would hope for 3 points as these are the bottom 10 sides based on last season's finishing positions...

We have so far played 7 of these fixtures and not won ANY of these, (W0 D5 L2) . Last season's top 10 (actually top 9) have provided us with plenty of "bonus" points but our struggle to win the "easier" fixtures is baffling.

I'm delighted we have responded so well to the Forest game, but predicting any sort of outcome for Brighton must be a gambling minefield

 

[Sorrel]

The "staying up" tracker shows 10 home fixtures where we would hope for 3 points as these are the bottom 10 sides based on last season's finishing positions...

We have so far played 7 of these fixtures and not won ANY of these, (W0 D5 L2) . Last season's top 10 (actually top 9) have provided us with plenty of "bonus" points but our struggle to win the "easier" fixtures is baffling.

I'm delighted we have responded so well to the Forest game, but predicting any sort of outcome for Brighton must be a gambling minefield

Last night Chelsea had most of the possession; we were the team looking to catch them on breaks. At Forest we had most of the possession.

It is obviously simplistic, but we are much better at "breaking" than against any kind of organised defence. As people have said before - Liverpool can do it, and Arsenal did it today without playing well. We don't seem to be able to work out how to do it (or aren't good enough) when teams are defending in depth.

 

[Giraffe]

Last night Chelsea had most of the possession; we were the team looking to catch them on breaks. At Forest we had most of the possession.

It is obviously simplistic, but we are much better at "breaking" than against any kind of organised defence. As people have said before - Liverpool can do it, and Arsenal did it today without playing well. We don't seem to be able to work out how to do it (or aren't good enough) when teams are defending in depth.View attachment 196829View attachment 196830

Absolutely this. Difficult to get that right at home to the lower teams and that’s our problem.

 

[The Optimist]

Relegation and Europe tracker league tables fairly closely aligned, other than Palace which suggests they may fall back a bit in the real league table as can't beat the bigger teams.

View attachment 195326View attachment 195327

By my calculations Man Utd are now 0 on the staying up tracker while Everton are now +1 and Wolves have climbed to -2.

I was curious because Man Utd’s run in looks tough - could they really end the season on just 40 points?

 

[warmleyseagull]

In only 6/25 matches have we actually achieved the tracker score (talking Europe here as relegation is off radar). Problem is particularly that we do pretty well against better teams - 9 points from 7 games against current top 5, but poorly against weaker teams - 8 points from 6 games against the current bottom 5.

TBH I think it is simpler to assume we need 1.6 ppg for Europe and leave it at that. Currently, that shows we are 3 points behind, same as as Tracker, in a simple calculation.

 

[jcdenton08]

In only 6/25 matches have we actually achieved the tracker score (talking Europe here as relegation is off radar). Problem is particularly that we do pretty well against better teams - 9 points from 7 games against current top 5, but poorly against weaker teams - 8 points from 6 games against the current bottom 5.

TBH I think it is simpler to assume we need 1.6 ppg for Europe and leave it at that. Currently, that shows we are 3 points behind, same as as Tracker, in a simple calculation.

#trustthetracker

 

[dazzer6666]

In only 6/25 matches have we actually achieved the tracker score (talking Europe here as relegation is off radar). Problem is particularly that we do pretty well against better teams - 9 points from 7 games against current top 5, but poorly against weaker teams - 8 points from 6 games against the current bottom 5.

TBH I think it is simpler to assume we need 1.6 ppg for Europe and leave it at that. Currently, that shows we are 3 points behind, same as as Tracker, in a simple calculation.

No. No, no, no, no, no, no.
#don’tfvckwiththetracker

 

[Madafwo]

No. No, no, no, no, no, no.
#don’tfvckwiththetracker

This.

 

[A1X]

In only 6/25 matches have we actually achieved the tracker score (talking Europe here as relegation is off radar). Problem is particularly that we do pretty well against better teams - 9 points from 7 games against current top 5, but poorly against weaker teams - 8 points from 6 games against the current bottom 5.

TBH I think it is simpler to assume we need 1.6 ppg for Europe and leave it at that. Currently, that shows we are 3 points behind, same as as Tracker, in a simple calculation.

FFS people will be suggesting orange on the “Teams We Can’t Catch” thread next

 

[Bob!]

........TBH I think it is simpler to assume we need 1.6 ppg for Europe and leave it at that. Currently, that shows we are 3 points behind, same as as Tracker, in a simple calculation.

You do it your way then.

The rest of us will follow the tracker!

 

[Brian Munich]

No. No, no, no, no, no, no.
#don’tfvckwiththetracker

No, no, no, no, NOGAN!

 

[Gabbiano]

I do think the Europe tracker's basis of no away wins all season, but all home games are wins except against those in the CL is a bit wonky.

But hey ho, it's still a very useful tool for expectation setting. We're unlikely to make any real ground on the tracker in the next few games - any potential points gained against Saints will be lost when we inevitably don't win one of the following home games.

 

[Terry Connor]

The European tracker is less use because we simply don't know which finishing positions will qualify, could be anywhere between 6th and 10th.

 

[Brian Munich]

The European tracker is less use because we simply don't know which finishing positions will qualify, could be anywhere between 6th and 10th.

At the other end, the relegation-avoidance tracker is innacurate as well. When was the last time that you needed 40 points to finish 17th? Certainly since we were promoted, 36 points has been enough every season.

 

[JBizzle]

If the 40 points tracker is almost achieved, and 60 points is seen as in with a shout of Europe... what would represent a good, or satisfactory first season for FH? Europe would be great, but to say a 60+ point season is what FH needs to achieve in his first season to keep people happy would be quite a strict ask. So what would the minimum points be for you to say 'yeah he's had a solid first season, im happy with that'? I feel anything around mid 50s would be a decent first season effort.

It's a tough one. Looking at out recent history we've only ever got over 60 points once in the Premier League, in De Zerbi's first full season when inheriting a fully settled and fairly injury-free side:

Given that we have 13 games left, I think 50-51 points would be a good return, putting us there-or-thereabouts with the 2nd best season in our entire history and an excellent grounding for the 2025-26 season

 

[Brian Munich]

It's a tough one. Looking at out recent history we've only ever got over 60 points once in the Premier League, in De Zerbi's first full season when inheriting a fully settled and fairly injury-free side:

View attachment 196884

Given that we have 13 games left, I think 50-51 points would be a good return, putting us there-or-thereabouts with the 2nd best season in our entire history and an excellent grounding for the 2025-26 season

You're right. Although given that we seem to have turned a corner, I would be very dissapointed if we don't get more than 14 points from our final 13 fixtures.

 

[JBizzle]

You're right. Although given that we seem to have turned a corner, I would be very dissapointed if we don't get more than 14 points from our final 13 fixtures.

I feel like I would be too, but there are some seriously tough fixtures in that final run. I'm managing my own expectations if nothing else...

 

[Audax]

Given that we have 13 games left, I think 50-51 points would be a good return, putting us there-or-thereabouts with the 2nd best season in our entire history and an excellent grounding for the 2025-26 season

I'm broadly in agreement with that. Finishing the season with 50+ points and in the bottom end of the top 10 would feel like a good start for Hurzeler and the squad.

On the flipside ... we're 10th right now, but the group from 4th (a misfiring M.City side) back to us is so tight at just 7 points. If we can just find our best form more consistently, another European campaign is well within reach. Of the 6 sides immediately above us that we're chasing, we play 4 of them in the next 5 rounds, and 3 of those matches we're at home:

Match 2 = Bournemouth Home
Match 3 = Fulham Home
Match 4 = City Away
Match 5 = Villa Home

Of course ... Amex hasn't been the fortress it once was this season so far. But realistically, our next 5 matches genuinely will be season-defining IMO. Strong consistent form, win those 6 pointers, and we'll put ourselves in a strong position to push through the end of the season with Europe a strong prospect. Go on a run of inconsistent form, or even poor form, and the potential of Europe is gone after those 5 matches IMO.

 

[Brian Munich]

I feel like I would be too, but there are some seriously tough fixtures in that final run. I'm managing my own expectations if nothing else...

Liverpool home and City away are the toughest, but other than that it's a fairly representative set of 13 fixtures as far as Premier League standard goes. We've played 6 of our 2nd-half-of-season fixtures and got 3 of the current top 6 out of the way already.