- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,242
So here we go again for the SIXTH season.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past, it nearly happened last season and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Newcastle, but not Wolves or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although this might be the season where we don't have a rogue team that massively under performs their previous season like Leeds and Everton did last season.
This season seems to be pretty well weighted, with 20 points expected in each half. This hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
So this is how the tracker sees the upcoming season:
- It's a relatively slow start with 7 points from the first 6 games. Probably bottom half stuff?
- By the end of October as the "More snow tomorrow" thread sees it's first outing, we have 15 from 14, including absolutely smashing Palace at the Amex with a Julio Enciso hat trick.
- By the time St George, Southgate, Dunky, Webster, Lamptey, March, Lallana and Welbeck have flown to Qatar we have 18 points from 16.
- A jaded dull draw at Southampton on Boxing Day with all our world cup stars rested followed by defeat to Arsenal sees us with just 19 from 18 points - a nervous time.
- Second half of the season is much like the first. No runs of absolutely killer games but there are 84 days without a win between beating Aston Villa in November and Bournemouth in February. Southgate had better "be the one" during that time or it will be a pretty miserable winter.
- We only dip below the one point a game measure twice, 21st January and then 29th April.
- But 7 points from the last 4 games sees us home. Hoorah!
I really hope we do significantly better than above, but we need a great start again I feel to keep the momentum from last season going.
Last season I guessed at 52-55 points, just over the 51 we got. This season will be tough, but I think we can get to 52-55 this time.
Aim high - it's the Giraffe way.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past, it nearly happened last season and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Newcastle, but not Wolves or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although this might be the season where we don't have a rogue team that massively under performs their previous season like Leeds and Everton did last season.
This season seems to be pretty well weighted, with 20 points expected in each half. This hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
So this is how the tracker sees the upcoming season:
- It's a relatively slow start with 7 points from the first 6 games. Probably bottom half stuff?
- By the end of October as the "More snow tomorrow" thread sees it's first outing, we have 15 from 14, including absolutely smashing Palace at the Amex with a Julio Enciso hat trick.
- By the time St George, Southgate, Dunky, Webster, Lamptey, March, Lallana and Welbeck have flown to Qatar we have 18 points from 16.
- A jaded dull draw at Southampton on Boxing Day with all our world cup stars rested followed by defeat to Arsenal sees us with just 19 from 18 points - a nervous time.
- Second half of the season is much like the first. No runs of absolutely killer games but there are 84 days without a win between beating Aston Villa in November and Bournemouth in February. Southgate had better "be the one" during that time or it will be a pretty miserable winter.
- We only dip below the one point a game measure twice, 21st January and then 29th April.
- But 7 points from the last 4 games sees us home. Hoorah!
I really hope we do significantly better than above, but we need a great start again I feel to keep the momentum from last season going.
Last season I guessed at 52-55 points, just over the 51 we got. This season will be tough, but I think we can get to 52-55 this time.
Aim high - it's the Giraffe way.
but great stuff as always. Best thread on NSC and always worth it for the posters trying to point out the drawbacks.
