To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[Pevenseagull]

Need more Cowbell...

Blessings upon you, I have now decided what to get for my friend's 50th birthday.
.
.
His wife will put a contract out on me.

 

[Pantani]

With stoke Newcastle and Huddersfield all getting away points it actually wasn't a great day for us as the staying up tally keeps going up. Looks like we will need another 7 points to stay up.
We have 5 games against the big 6. Zero points from those games so far. Two away games against top half teams (Everton and Burnley). Zero points from those away games so far. That leaves 3 games to get the seven points. No room for any bad performance or bad luck.

Burnley and Everton are top half but that is irrelevant. Look at points, not position. I keep saying this but no one seems to be following the logic. Everton are three points ahead of us, over 28 games, that tells me that they just are not that good, or at least not that much better than we are. Burnley a further three points ahead, have picked up just 5 points out of the last 10 games, the worst form in the entire league.

These games are not as difficult as they appear by saying 'top half'. Statistically there is not a top half, there is a top one, Man City who are nearly impossible to get points off; the next four who are all very hard to beat or get a point against home or away; Arsenal, who are flaky away from home; Then everyone else, who are beatable by a team of our quality on the day, home or away. Then one final category, Alan Pardew.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

With the Man City fixture awaiting a reschedule date later in the season, 3 of our next 4 games are at home. The toughest on paper is obviously Arsenal, but Arsenal are not all that away from home, their away stats are lost 7, drawn 4, won 3.

Their only wins coming against Everton who had a man sent off, Palace who did manage to score a couple of goals and Burnley who conceded a penalty in the 92nd minute after the game was heading for a 0-0 draw.

Yes they are a top six side, but they are not at the same level as Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City, who are the only teams to beat us at the Amex this season.

William Hill and Paddy Power both have us 4/1 for a home win, which I think is way over priced.

We've hit our best form at just the right time, scoring 8 goals in our last 3 games and this match, if we win it, will give us such a boost in confidence for the following games that it will probably be the defining game of our season.

 

[Berty23]

Re Arsenal. Obviously they are favs BUT before we play them they have to play Man City twice and if they lose both then they must focus on Europa league which sees them play Milan a few days after us. We will probably lose but you couldn't wish for a better time to play them.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Although on a points predictor the Arsenal game should be a loss, you never know.

Let's hope the poor Arsenal side turn up at the Amex next Sunday.

Unexpected point(s) are not out of the question in this game.

 

[Machiavelli]

Burnley and Everton are top half but that is irrelevant. Look at points, not position. I keep saying this but no one seems to be following the logic. Everton are three points ahead of us, over 28 games, that tells me that they just are not that good, or at least not that much better than we are. Burnley a further three points ahead, have picked up just 5 points out of the last 10 games, the worst form in the entire league.

These games are not as difficult as they appear by saying 'top half'. Statistically there is not a top half, there is a top one, Man City who are nearly impossible to get points off; the next four who are all very hard to beat or get a point against home or away; Arsenal, who are flaky away from home; Then everyone else, who are beatable by a team of our quality on the day, home or away. Then one final category, Alan Pardew.

Spot on, again. A month or so ago, the BBC had a chart, arranged to scale, putting all the clubs on the number of points they have. City were way up the scale, and there was a massive bunch in a very small range.
I wonder if there is an updated one of these?

 

[BrianWade4]

Why?
We are one point behind,
We should win at least 2 maybe 3 from Eve,Hud, Lei, Pal, Bur with a couple of draws from these or the other games and we’ll be laughing.
In fact we could even pick up 14-17 points from these games!
Balls to pessimism! Let’s do this.

Well said
It’s just that after our great run of form and performances I thought we’d be above the line

I totally agree on targeting those fixtures for points... we may also get something off the top 6 - Arsenal at home possibly

 

[Rugrat]

Burnley and Everton are top half but that is irrelevant. Look at points, not position. I keep saying this but no one seems to be following the logic. Everton are three points ahead of us, over 28 games, that tells me that they just are not that good, or at least not that much better than we are. Burnley a further three points ahead, have picked up just 5 points out of the last 10 games, the worst form in the entire league.

These games are not as difficult as they appear by saying 'top half'. Statistically there is not a top half, there is a top one, Man City who are nearly impossible to get points off; the next four who are all very hard to beat or get a point against home or away; Arsenal, who are flaky away from home; Then everyone else, who are beatable by a team of our quality on the day, home or away. Then one final category, Alan Pardew.

I get the logic entirely. I've hardly paid any attention to our league position just the number of points we're clear of the drop zone. Position becomes more relevant when we get to a position of relative safety.

There's very little to chose between any team outside the top 6 (West Brom aside), you could probably argue that the difference in points is down to little more than good and bad luck, refereeing decisions, 6 inches in a shot/save etc.

 

[Bozza]

Burnley and Everton are top half but that is irrelevant. Look at points, not position. I keep saying this but no one seems to be following the logic. Everton are three points ahead of us, over 28 games, that tells me that they just are not that good, or at least not that much better than we are. Burnley a further three points ahead, have picked up just 5 points out of the last 10 games, the worst form in the entire league.

These games are not as difficult as they appear by saying 'top half'. Statistically there is not a top half, there is a top one, Man City who are nearly impossible to get points off; the next four who are all very hard to beat or get a point against home or away; Arsenal, who are flaky away from home; Then everyone else, who are beatable by a team of our quality on the day, home or away. Then one final category, Alan Pardew.

If we’d beaten Everton, as we should have done, we’d be above them right now, albeit only on goal difference.

 

[Turkey]

Huddersfield +1
Albion -1
Palace -1
West Ham -2
Newcastle -3
Swansea -5
Southampton -6
Stoke -6
West Brom -8

 

[dazzer6666]

Tony Bloom said on the radio last night that he thinks 36-37 will be needed (adjusted from what he thought a few weeks ago which was as low as 32-33 I think).......presenter was daft enough to ask ‘if you have done any analysis........’. [emoji23][emoji23]

Outside of the top 5 all the remaining games are winnable, and we are due to grab a point or two off the top 5 as well. We’re playing much better now, hope CH continues with what seems to be more positive tactics. I sense we might make at least 40 points on current form.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Tony Bloom said on the radio last night that he thinks 36-37 will be needed (adjusted from what he thought a few weeks ago which was as low as 32-33 I think).......presenter was daft enough to ask ‘if you have done any analysis........’. [emoji23][emoji23]

Outside of the top 5 all the remaining games are winnable, and we are due to grab a point or two off the top 5 as well. We’re playing much better now, hope CH continues with what seems to be more positive tactics. I sense we might make at least 40 points on current form.

I think JC was joking when he said that...

As an aside, I thought it as amazing to have a Premier League chairman give an interview to local radio straight after the game. I can't imagine many others doing that. It's been said before, but we are very lucky to have him.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[The Camel]

Tony Bloom said on the radio last night that he thinks 36-37 will be needed (adjusted from what he thought a few weeks ago which was as low as 32-33 I think).......presenter was daft enough to ask ‘if you have done any analysis........’. [emoji23][emoji23]

Outside of the top 5 all the remaining games are winnable, and we are due to grab a point or two off the top 5 as well. We’re playing much better now, hope CH continues with what seems to be more positive tactics. I sense we might make at least 40 points on current form.

I got the feeling he was just saying that to try and keep the foot on the pedal and not lose concentration.

I'd be extremely surprised if any team with 34 points go down. And 32 is more than likely to be enough.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I'd be extremely surprised if any team with 34 points go down. And 32 is more than likely to be enough.

Really? There's ten games to go and 27 points is currently the dividing line. This would need two teams to get five points or less from their last ten. I suppose its possible but seems unlikely.

 

[The Camel]

Really? There's ten games to go and 27 points is currently the dividing line. This would need two teams to get five points or less from their last ten. I suppose its possible but seems unlikely.

I would say the AVERAGE amount of points the teams in the bottom half will get from their last 10 matches is 9.

However, with so many teams on about 26-28 points some will get 11-14 points and some will get 4 or 5.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Really? There's ten games to go and 27 points is currently the dividing line. This would need two teams to get five points or less from their last ten. I suppose its possible but seems unlikely.

Burnley have taken 5 points from last 10 games (albeit includes 5 against top 6).

 

[Sorrel]

In the last ten years and more the points needed to stay up (forgetting goal difference) were between 31 (once) and 40 (once). All the other seasons have required 34 to 38 points, mostly clustered around the 35 to 37.

It would be unlucky for it to be like 2011 - two teams relegated on 39 points - and unlikely to be like 2010, when 31 points would have been enough to survive. Six or seven points from now is likely to be enough - especially if we include goal difference and our defence continues to perform as it has all season.

 

[A1X]

Anything against Arsenal next week could be absolutely massive, and easily our best chance this season to take something off a big gun.

 

[bravohotelalpha]

Tony Bloom said on the radio last night that he thinks 36-37 will be needed (adjusted from what he thought a few weeks ago which was as low as 32-33 I think).......presenter was daft enough to ask ‘if you have done any analysis........’. [emoji23][emoji23]

Outside of the top 5 all the remaining games are winnable, and we are due to grab a point or two off the top 5 as well. We’re playing much better now, hope CH continues with what seems to be more positive tactics. I sense we might make at least 40 points on current form.

Listen again (someone has posted the link) Tony said it is very difficult/impossible to predict

 

[bravohotelalpha]

Listen again (someone has posted the link) Tony said it is very difficult/impossible to predict

TB actually says we could go down with 37 points