To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[Greg Bobkin]

Let's just win every game from now and push for the Europa league [emoji23]🖒

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[Weststander]

TB actually says we will go down with 37 points

Making him a negative chairman and bedwetter.

 

[Triggaaar]

With stoke Newcastle and Huddersfield all getting away points it actually wasn't a great day for us

Apart from the fact we won, I agree.

Looks like we will need another 7 points to stay up.
We have 5 games against the big 6. Zero points from those games so far. Two away games against top half teams (Everton and Burnley). Zero points from those away games so far.

What do you mean, zero from those away games so far? We haven't played them.

That leaves 3 games to get the seven points. No room for any bad performance or bad luck.

Not quite, there's room for some points elsewhere.

 

[Giraffe]

Huddersfield +1
Albion -1
Palace -1
West Ham -2
Newcastle -3
Swansea -5
Southampton -6
Stoke -6
West Brom -8

Excellent analysis. I have been meaning to do the same for some time.

It highlights a good position for us and also shows how the bottom four are worse off than they seem.

 

[Winker]

I have only written off our games against Man U, Man City, Spurs and Liverpool.
I believe we will get 10 points off the other 6 games.

 

[bravohotelalpha]

Making him a negative chairman and bedwetter.

Stop messing with my post - I quoted TB as saying we COULD go down with 37 points

 

[Triggaaar]

That’s depressed me

Why?
We are one point behind

The main reason it shouldn't be depressing is that we're 1 point behind a target of 40, and it shouldn't take 40 points. We also have a reasonable GD (although that could change easily over the last few games).

We should win at least 2 maybe 3 from Eve,Hud, Lei, Pal, Bur with a couple of draws from these or the other games and we’ll be laughing.

I wouldn't say at least 2, maybe 3 there. It will be tough to win any of the 3 aways, and while we'll be hopeful with the two home games, we probably won't win both. I'd bite your arm off for 2 wins there.

Losing 12 out of 12 against the top 6 would be depressing, we have to get something, and the best chance is next Sunday.

 

[BrianWade4]

The main reason it shouldn't be depressing is that we're 1 point behind a target of 40, and it shouldn't take 40 points. We also have a reasonable GD (although that could change easily over the last few games).

I wouldn't say at least 2, maybe 3 there. It will be tough to win any of the 3 aways, and while we'll be hopeful with the two home games, we probably won't win both. I'd bite your arm off for 2 wins there.

Losing 12 out of 12 against the top 6 would be depressing, we have to get something, and the best chance is next Sunday.

I agree re. Arsenal
Especially as they play City again Thurs night so will be knackered

Hit them hard from the off....

 

[Triggaaar]

I'd be extremely surprised if any team with 34 points go down. And 32 is more than likely to be enough.

Madness surely?

I would say the AVERAGE amount of points the teams in the bottom half will get from their last 10 matches is 9.

Well so far this season, the bottom half have averaged 1 point per game, so 10 from the last 10 is more likely.

However, with so many teams on about 26-28 points some will get 11-14 points and some will get 4 or 5.

Only 4 teams on 26-28, and while I can see West Brom getting 4 or less, I can't see 2 of the 4 clubs above them doing the same. No chance that 32 is enough.

 

[dazzer6666]

We’ve got more points in our last 5 games than Chelsea, Arsenal, Burnley and Leicester.......no reason why we can’t continue some decent form.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

We’ve got more points in our last 5 games than Chelsea, Arsenal, Burnley and Leicester.......no reason why we can’t continue some decent form.

Last four games, we're THIRD in the form table

 

[Machiavelli]

Madness surely?
Well so far this season, the bottom half have averaged 1 point per game, so 10 from the last 10 is more likely.

Only 4 teams on 26-28, and while I can see West Brom getting 4 or less, I can't see 2 of the 4 clubs above them doing the same. No chance that 32 is enough.

1 on 20, 1 on 26, and 3 on 27. I'm not convinced that two of the final four will get 10 more points, leaving 36/37 as good enough for survival, especially with a good goal difference.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

A point per game played will be more than enough this year, so we need seven points from ten games, job done in my opinion.

 

[scamander]

I think you'll be fine, you took on a resurgent Swansea and soundly beat them. Huge match for you in terms of avoiding the drop and you came out really well from it.

 

[Triggaaar]

1 on 20, 1 on 26, and 3 on 27. I'm not convinced that two of the final four will get 10 more points, leaving 36/37 as good enough for survival, especially with a good goal difference.

You've highlighted part of my post, but it was correct. I removed WB as we can assume they're down (I know they're not, strange things can happen, but for the sake of trying to make predictions I'm going to assume they are). The Camel said "32 is more than likely to be enough" which is crazy talk. Yes it could happen, but it's not more than likely.

As for your prediction, I don't know. I could see SCC, Palace and Swansea getting 10 more points. That's only a point a game, which is pretty much what they've got up to now. Too difficult to predict.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

A Southampton v Stoke draw on Saturday will surely reduce our points required target.

Come on both goalies !!!

 

[dazzer6666]

Unsophisticated I know, but a simple replication of form over the last 10 over the final 10 would leave the table looking something like this :

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Everton 43
Hudds 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26

 

[dazzer6666]

What happened to Newcastle?

Good point, thanks...that'll teach me to do it manually

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Newcastle 36
Everton 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26

 

[FatSuperman]

Good point, thanks...that'll teach me to do it manually

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Newcastle 36
Everton 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26

I think it's unfair that Newcastle are so high in the table, with such a low points total. Surely this is not allowed!

 

[dazzer6666]

I think it's unfair that Newcastle are so high in the table, with such a low points total. Surely this is not allowed!

Rafa said it's a FACT