To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[Bognor Seagull]

Only 15 games left. Doesn't feel like Albion have played much at all this year.

Indeed - we are what we are & we are going down.

1/3 of the way through January & no new signings. Still time but there is no urgency within the club.We are sleep walking to the Championship

 

[Eeyore]

Indeed - we are what we are & we are going down.

1/3 of the way through January & no new signings. Still time but there is no urgency within the club.We are sleep walking to the Championship

I don't know how much of a bad fan it makes me, not that I should care, but if Albion went back down I wouldn't be that upset. I'd prefer them to stay up, of course, but at least NSC would be a happier place once those winning runs started again and people wouldn't be getting upset as if their family's life depended on an away goal. Oh, and it wouldn't feel like games came around as often as World Cup qualifiers.

Perhaps I'm just training my mind for all outcomes.

 

[Driver8]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

Hard to argue with that.

 

[AZ Gull]

I don't know how much of a bad fan it makes me, not that I should care, but if Albion went back down I wouldn't be that upset. I'd prefer them to stay up, of course, but at least NSC would be a happier place once those winning runs started again and people wouldn't be getting upset as if their family's life depended on an away goal. Oh, and it wouldn't feel like games came around as often as World Cup qualifiers.

Perhaps I'm just training my mind for all outcomes.

The problem is, of course, if we were to go down how many players would we lose? And having lost 4/5/6 of our major playing assets (and given how difficult teams have found it to bounce straight back up) I don't think anyone should be too confident those "winning runs" are going to magically start happening again.

 

[One Love]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

It doesn't look good.

I reckon we'll finish on 30 points.

 

[Tony Le Mesmer]

[emoji38]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

Interesting Analysis.

So far we have won one third of our must win home games and drawn two thirds yet we must win all four of our remaining must win home games to stand any chance of survival (due to our away form).

Started off the season by exceeding all expectations (as most newly promoted teams tend to do) followed by a early Winter slump that won't shift.

Frustrating as it is let's try and enjoy the ride as sadly, we appear to be this seasons Middlesborough - without the cushion of a Sunderland this season, spells imminent danger.

 

[Goberpiles]

The problem is all of these MUST win games we have ****ed up, to turn up today against a team without a win in 21 apart from shite cup games, play like that and have less shots on target then those shit cup teams shows how bad we are currently playing, you can’t survive on home games with draws.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

I still had hope till yesterday, but it's almost gone. Chris has been comfortable throughout the season with losing 2-0 to the big boys and now not the end of the world if we only lose 2-0 to the others. Surely some one at the club must be able to coach the defence to deal with corners. We put out Chris's default best team yesterday and it isn't good enough in the Prem. If we keep doing the same thing, we will get the same results.

So we have to make changes. If we sack Chris, we lose respect for our club ethos and arguably the best man to lead us back from the Championship. Burnley stayed loyal to Dyche and it worked. So if we stick with Chris, he needs to do something different. If we sign new players (which I now doubt), it will force changes. However we are still apparently pursuing the same targets who wouldn't come in the summer. We will be left with the Akpoms of this world who lack any of the qualities we need.

So that leaves changes from within the squad:

1) is Krul an option with a bigger, more commanding presence
2) Goldson and Huenemeier rarely put a foot wrong - they might be worth trying?
3) As above, do we add one of them rather than replace? Maybe 3 at the back or another in front of the back 4?
4) Kayal for Propper with Propper for Gross further forward?
5) Hemed for Murray. Hemed is more energetic and a little quicker.
6) Go 4,4,2 with Baldock instead of Gross

I don't have the answers, but I we can't keep doing the same or we will undoubtedly go down, possibly with less than 30 points.

 

[dazzer6666]

Looking at the remaining fixtures, it’s quite tricky to see how we’ll get more than even 10-12 points (and could possibly get a lot less) from what’s left unless we very quickly snap out of the current malaise. Agree something different needs to be tried.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I'm still optimistic.
There are still teams around and below us struggling just as much as we are.
Still fancy us to pick up 3 or 4 wins, and not lose 5 or 6 more.
The towels are being thrown in from all corners, but it was always going to be a struggle, I fancy we'll come back from this!

 

[peterward]

I still had hope till yesterday, but it's almost gone. Chris has been comfortable throughout the season with losing 2-0 to the big boys and now not the end of the world if we only lose 2-0 to the others. Surely some one at the club must be able to coach the defence to deal with corners. We put out Chris's default best team yesterday and it isn't good enough in the Prem. If we keep doing the same thing, we will get the same results.

So we have to make changes. If we sack Chris, we lose respect for our club ethos and arguably the best man to lead us back from the Championship. Burnley stayed loyal to Dyche and it worked. So if we stick with Chris, he needs to do something different. If we sign new players (which I now doubt), it will force changes. However we are still apparently pursuing the same targets who wouldn't come in the summer. We will be left with the Akpoms of this world who lack any of the qualities we need.

So that leaves changes from within the squad:

1) is Krul an option with a bigger, more commanding presence
2) Goldson and Huenemeier rarely put a foot wrong - they might be worth trying?
3) As above, do we add one of them rather than replace? Maybe 3 at the back or another in front of the back 4?
4) Kayal for Propper with Propper for Gross further forward?
5) Hemed for Murray. Hemed is more energetic and a little quicker.
6) Go 4,4,2 with Baldock instead of Gross

I don't have the answers, but I we can't keep doing the same or we will undoubtedly go down, possibly with less than 30 points.

I agree we need to stick with CH, and the squad doesn't have enough to depth, but this is exactly what the Norwich fans talked about. He's defending his way to relegation.

Anyone remember Blackpool under Holloway? A lot worse squad than ours, but they had a right good go at trying to win games, we don't. Yes we lack the prolific striker, but this system is negative and defensive and I would love to see us go back to 4-4-2 at home to try and win, rather than try and not concede whilst stifling creativity.

Last season when we lost at home to Newcastle there was that telling moment that changed the game, we were 1-0 up on 80 mins and kayal was warming up to come on and replace Baldock (a defender for a mid with 10 to go at 1-0 - no problem), then that freak pinball goal, 1-1..... But Hughton still makes that substitution to go defensive and negative with the match poised. Benitez doesn't and now Hughton has lessened the attacking threat, he throws on another forward and all momentum goes to Newcastle who won at the death. It was not chance, but a result of two substitutions.

I've never been more impressed with any managers character than Chris's but he is overly negative at times and overly cautious at others. You cannot defend your way to safety, you have to win somehow. We have better players this season than last, please put them back in the 4-4-2 we used at home last season and let's try and have a right good go at home. We've got the perfect game next to experiment, or will it be more of the same expecting different results?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

*Hold the Nerve*

 

[Giraffe]

Rubbishly late update, but nothing changed at the weekend. We were always expected to lose, we did. Next four games will probably define our season. Nothing less than the 7 expected points needed.

 

[dibsy]

This fantastic wet bed deterrent tracker has kept me optimistic all season, now it's getting to the squeaky bit please don't let me down. Even if we don't salvage the 2 points we are down if we achieve the rest of the points predicted we'll be golden.

 

[Titanic]

Home wins against West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield... hopeful, but not at all expectant.

#grim

 

[Giraffe]

This fantastic wet bed deterrent tracker has kept me optimistic all season, now it's getting to the squeaky bit please don't let me down. Even if we don't salvage the 2 points we are down if we achieve the rest of the points predicted we'll be golden.

Yep that would give us 38 points. I reckon the cut off point is there or there or abouts. The problem is no one has fallen adrift and therefore the level could be higher than it has been for a few seasons but unlikely to hit 40 because of the number of teams now involved in the battle.

Can't help but notice that the "Championship" block of ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle all seem to be descending together. I'd fancy us to finish above those two but we need another.

 

[Bozza]

Beat Southampton and we are ahead of the curve again.

(But we also need to beat Leicester to maintain that)

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Yep that would give us 38 points. I reckon the cut off point is there or there or abouts. The problem is no one has fallen adrift and therefore the level could be higher than it has been for a few seasons but unlikely to hit 40 because of the number of teams now involved in the battle.

Can't help but notice that the "Championship" block of ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle all seem to be descending together. I'd fancy us to finish above those two but we need another.

That's what the commentators said on Saturday. They reckoned that there were so many clubs in the mix, it could even be 36 and goal difference.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

For all of the doom mongers if you called Stoke, Southampton, West Brom & Swansea fans they'd swap with us in a heart beat, equally, I'm sure that there's a degree of nervousness with Watford, WHU, Bournemouth, Pilarse, Hudders and NUFC fans, we've just got to keep our nerve and the faith.

We need fifteen points and have 14 games to gain them, two wins and a draw from the next four and we all start to feel a little better.

Let's get behind Chris and The Boys!

 

[dadams2k11]

I reckon 32 - 34pts this season will do it. It's so tight there is 4pts between 10th and 18th.