To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[Giraffe]

Sadly Palace are now one point AHEAD of their tracker - the first time they have been ahead this season. Dark days.

 

[maffew]

I was just looking at the table ... if you have got 18 points after 20 games then its unlikely that you will score 22 points in next 18 games .... however what we do know is nothing is predictable and the current state of the table is not a straight line indicator of performance . Personally i want to see around 45 points because that will mean we are very safe and I will have watched us win a few games.

There are 4 home games we need to win in 2018, there were 5 and we drew the first one. We need to take 3 points off Huddersfield, West Ham, Swansea and Leicester at home and nick draws at Southhampton, WBA and possibly Stoke. That's not impossible nor is getting a point at home against a top 6 team.

Its all about personal opinions.

Its not impossible but it's a tall order hey? I reckon more likely is a bit different to that, points dropped vs Leicester and 'udds I see Southampton WBA and Stoke as more baggable games

 

[kevo]

Just one point behind the tracker now.

And only one point predicted from next three games. Both WBA and Soton away are winnable. Hopefully we'll be ahead of it come Feb.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Interesting article about it in the telegraph...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/fo...e-how-many-points-do-you-need-to-stay-up.html

'The first thing you’ll notice is that the “magic 40-point mark” – holy grail of managers from Sam Allardyce to Roberto Martinez – is actually an illusion. Over the last 19 seasons, 40 points is usually more than enough for survival. Last season, West Ham finished with 40 points and finished 13th.'

Good stuff, cheers for that. Interesting analysis of how – in La Liga – 40 points would give teams only a 60% survival chance and playing at home on the last game of the season gives you a better chance of survival. Oh...

 

[Bold Seagull]

Sadly Palace are now one point AHEAD of their tracker - the first time they have been ahead this season. Dark days.

Lets pretend there was no tracker for them until they fall behind again.

 

[Audax]

Why isn't Southampton in bold? They haven't won in 8 games. If you have Stoke in bold not sure why you think Southampton are in a different position?

Because I expect(ed) Southampton to do better against Palace given they were at home and Palace are a possible relegation rival. A win would have put them level with us on points, and ahead on GD. But now they've lost that game, they're absolutely in the same place as the others. Even more so given they managed to lose it from a goal ahead.

Was noted in another thread that the 6th game after those is also against a team currently behind us, so 5 of our next 6 are probably season-defining for our final outcome.

 

[Albion my Albion]

I'm sensing some adult nappy leakage? Anyone?

 

[Bold Seagull]

I'm sensing some adult nappy leakage? Anyone?

Whether you are of a completely positive optimistic disposition like myself, or at the other end of the spectrum, there can be little doubt that the next month or so is underwear soiling territory for everyone. Each game is becoming bigger than the previous, West Brom away suddenly feels like the Death Star having cleared the moon with some teenage kid the only one left with any proton torpedoes...

 

[Mellotron]

Concerned that some see the...

Leicester
Huddersfield
Palace

...run of games as a chance for points. I’d be surprised if we got a single win there. Leicester and Huddersfield play high tempo, high pressing football like Liverpool and we REALLY struggle against that (lost all 3 fixtures against those sides comfortably). And Palace are resurgent and at home against us will put in a performance. Very nasty set of games IMO, we HAVE to get some wins against the likes of Stoke, Swansea, West Ham and West Brom.

 

[MattBackHome]

Concerned that some see the...

Leicester
Huddersfield
Palace

...run of games as a chance for points. I’d be surprised if we got a single win there. Leicester and Huddersfield play high tempo, high pressing football like Liverpool and we REALLY struggle against that (lost all 3 fixtures against those sides comfortably). And Palace are resurgent and at home against us will put in a performance. Very nasty set of games IMO, we HAVE to get some wins against the likes of Stoke, Swansea, West Ham and West Brom.

As ever, when @mellotron speaks, commons sense pours out.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Concerned that some see the...

Leicester
Huddersfield
Palace

...run of games as a chance for points. I’d be surprised if we got a single win there. Leicester and Huddersfield play high tempo, high pressing football like Liverpool and we REALLY struggle against that (lost all 3 fixtures against those sides comfortably). And Palace are resurgent and at home against us will put in a performance. Very nasty set of games IMO, we HAVE to get some wins against the likes of Stoke, Swansea, West Ham and West Brom.

Leicester play more on the counter than high pressing. You don't know what will happen between now and those games, who signs who, what injuries they have, cup runs. I am glad Leicester isn't one of our next games as they do look good at present, but a lot can change by 31 March. Reckon we're due some shock unpredictable points too, and about time we got a goal that bounced off someone's arse, or a deflected cross or something, we're having to work bloody hard for ours whereas I look at some goals going in thinking how on earth we're not getting a slice of that good fortune.

 

[Giraffe]

So a disappointing trip to the Hawthorns, but I still don't think it is bed wetting time. We are back to two points behind, which effectively means a 38 point forecast. If we could somehow win at home to Chelsea or win at Southampton we are ahead again. Even two draws would put us back on par.

Despite a good result for Palace today they remain only 1 point ahead of their tracker. Long way to go.

 

[AZ Gull]

If we could somehow win at home to Chelsea or win at Southampton we are ahead again.

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

 

[moggy]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

YEP ! afraid so

 

[dazzer6666]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

84 days since our last away goal ?

 

[AZ Gull]

84 days since our last away goal ?

Swansea on November 4. I make that 70 days.

 

[GT49er]

We are going down, aren't we?

Not yet we're not! It does, however, remain a possibility................but I won't believe it's really happening until there are three teams we cannot mathematically catch.

 

[nicko31]

So 15 games left. 6 are against the big six, and our approach so far this season virtually guarantees no points in those matches. So the points will have to come in the remaining 9 matches.

5 of those 9 matches are away; we haven't scored an away goal in the last 6 matches (including games at Huddersfield, Newcastle and WBA) and given our inability to defend from corners, it would be overly optimistic to expect much at all from these away games.

Which leaves the 4 home matches (against non-big 6 opponents) where the points will have to come from (which is, indeed, what the tracker tells us). If we are to stand a chance of staying up, we simply HAVE to beat West Ham, Swansea, Leicester and Huddersfield at home. [As an indication of home form, of the 9 Amex matches we have played so far against non-big 6 opponents, we have won 3 and drawn 6].

We are going down, aren't we?

Something has to change, on form reckon we've only got 10 pts in us

 

[Eeyore]

Only 15 games left. Doesn't feel like Albion have played much at all this year.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

One game at a time. Plenty of highs and lows between now and the end of the season...

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