To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[spence]

3pts up still

 

[Giraffe]

So for only the second time this season we have dropped points against the "expected" and now are just three points ahead of what we need to get to the magic land of 40 points.

Saturday is just an exhibition match and a chance to rest some weary souls ahead of the big one next Tuesday which I really see as a must win to keep us ahead of the closing gap in the graph. However I would not rule out a victory at Huddersfield and some more bonus points coming soon.

 

[Giraffe]

So the defeat at Man United, whilst undeserved, was very much predicted and therefore we continue to be 3 points ahead of forecast.

Which brings the biggest game of the season into very sharp focus. We MUST win tomorrow night. We really really MUST. That will keep us ahead of the black line. However more importantly we need to give those tossers a damn good bloody nose (metaphorically). ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. No mercy. Smash them up. Destroy them. Leave them blubbing like little children that have just been left at the nursery for the first time. Leave nothing on the pitch. Expend all energy. Play like footballing gods. Seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeagulls.

 

[Giraffe]

And the Palace comparison mentioned in a different thread but here for reference.

 

[Nixonator]

That predicted 6pt rise for games 17&18 is concerning me.

Burnley and Watford are not going to be easy. We need to stay ahead.

Hudds away turning into a big one also.

 

[Giraffe]

That predicted 6pt rise for games 17&18 is concerning me.

Burnley and Watford are not going to be easy. We need to stay ahead.

Hudds away turning into a big one also.

Agreed on the Burnley game but I think our style of play will be okay against Watford.

Huddersfield away is indeed a big one.

It is very conceivable that we will be back below the black line by the end of the month I fear.

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

That predicted 6pt rise for games 17&18 is concerning me.

Burnley and Watford are not going to be easy. We need to stay ahead.

Hudds away turning into a big one also.

Burnley will be tough but I expect us to beat Watford. I also think we should feel confident of being able to get at least a point at Spurs and beating Bournemouth at home.

Looking at this massive next block of 9 games in a short space of time up until new years day, the target says we'll take 11 points which I think we'll get, but with different results. Draws against Burnley and Palace rather than wins. Draw against Spurs rather than a defeat and win at home to Bournemouth rather than defeat.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

So the defeat at Man United, whilst undeserved, was very much predicted and therefore we continue to be 3 points ahead of forecast.

Which brings the biggest game of the season into very sharp focus. We MUST win tomorrow night. We really really MUST. That will keep us ahead of the black line. However more importantly we need to give those tossers a damn good bloody nose (metaphorically). ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. No mercy. Smash them up. Destroy them. Leave them blubbing like little children that have just been left at the nursery for the first time. Leave nothing on the pitch. Expend all energy. Play like footballing gods. Seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeagulls.

Well that's 2 points dropped then and with December games ahead let's hope we can better your forecast on them please.

 

[Giraffe]

So have we all recovered from last night yet? I said have we all recovered from last night yet? Blimey those bangs were loud weren't they!

Unfortunately whilst all that nonsense was going on we lost two points against expectations an are now just one point ahead of the black line. A slight worry but I have a feeling we might get a bonus point on Saturday and I fancy us to go to Huddersfield and win. However Watford and Burnley at home look tough.

Footnote - Palace remain six points behind their expected level. Shame.

 

[um bongo molongo]

So, being a similar saddo to the OP, I've just recalculated this table based on who I think will be the worst 10 sides as opposed to using last year. Essentially, I've gone for the top 9 to be the obvious top 6, plus Leicester, Everton (who I expect to improve) and Watford (judgement call vs Southampton and Burnley). If you use these rules, our target is 18 points so far - so we are 1 behind, which, given recent disappointing results at home to stoke and palace seems about right. More worryingly these rules have us winning only 2 out of the next 11 (home to Burnley and Bournemouth) ��

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

1 point from the next 3 games to stay where we are in the comparison.


We have to hope that is do-able.

 

[Bold Seagull]

So, being a similar saddo to the OP, I've just recalculated this table based on who I think will be the worst 10 sides as opposed to using last year. Essentially, I've gone for the top 9 to be the obvious top 6, plus Leicester, Everton (who I expect to improve) and Watford (judgement call vs Southampton and Burnley). If you use these rules, our target is 18 points so far - so we are 1 behind, which, given recent disappointing results at home to stoke and palace seems about right. More worryingly these rules have us winning only 2 out of the next 11 (home to Burnley and Bournemouth) ��

With 6 sides already on 1ppg or less, you can be pretty confident already that 38 points will be enough and has been for the last 5 seasons in which on 3 occasions 35 has been enough. Plus, form will change, surprising results will come.

If we win 2 out of the next 11, and lets say we pick up 3 or 4 draws, I'll be quite happy on 26/27 points with 13 to play.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

So for only the second time this season we have dropped points against the "expected" and now are just three points ahead of what we need to get to the magic land of 40 points.

Saturday is just an exhibition match and a chance to rest some weary souls ahead of the big one next Tuesday which I really see as a must win to keep us ahead of the closing gap in the graph. However I would not rule out a victory at Huddersfield and some more bonus points coming soon.

Love the graph, serious excel porn

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I'm not overly worried, but looking some of those predicted result are looking a bit unlikely. Six points from the games against Burnley and Watford? Don't think so. However, on the flip side, I reckon a win at Huddersfield could be on the cards. Plus I've got a feeling it might be a draw tomorrow...

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Love the graph, serious excel porn

I think it should be pinned to the dressing room wall before every game

 

[FatSuperman]

Thought I'd update the CP graph again, just to show that the gap for them is almost as bad as it's been all season. Their worst was -7 points down on expected, now it's -6 as Giraffe says.

In theory they need 1.5 points per game to stay up (assuming 40 points for safety, which is probably a bit high now).

 

[TSB]

17 from 15.
Need 38 to finish safe.

So it's going well, still.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

4 free hits totally missed out of 4.

Our day will come, perhaps vs Spurs.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Palace won’t draw their way out of their mess

 

[Giraffe]

Nothing changed today.

Still one point behind.
8 games out of 15 as expected.
4 better
3 worse.

Big games now coming up at Huddersfield and home to Burnley and Watford. We need to sort out the home form or we will be in deep do doooos and I will begin wetting the bed.