[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

[Giraffe]

Worth a bounce considering there appears to be wet beds all over the place.

Nothing expected at Leicester either. Anything other than a defeat would be a bonus.

 

[Turkey]

After this weekend (Albion and Everton a game behind due to cup final).

Leicester 4
Bournemouth 4
Albion 4
Palace 1
Burnley 0
Southampton 0
Newcastle -2
Everton -3
Cardiff -6
Fulham -13
Huddersfield -16

 

[Saunders]

We have the players and the formation to stop the goals... We did it last season and the start of this. We played a solid back 4, defensive support from midfield and we ground out results. NSC weren't happy but it worked. Time to go back.

Even teams in the top six sometimes have to do this. Chelsea vs City today they went very defensive rather than have another 6-0 and it nearly worked.

 

[LlcoolJ]

After this weekend (Albion and Everton a game behind due to cup final).

Leicester4
Bournemouth4
Albion4
Palace1
Burnley0
Southampton0
Newcastle-2
Everton-3
Cardiff-6
Fulham-13
Huddersfield-16

I keep trying to explain this shit to people. This is why Huddersfield are 1000/1 ON to go down, Fulham are down and the massive likelihood is that Cardiff are also down.

Of course we need points, we need to win some games. But we will and we will be safe.

They won't and they will be relegated.

 

[dangull]

Leicester are in turmoil, no manager and some of their fans think they should be winning the league again, as if this club deserves 2 miracles in a life time.

Good time to play them, we need the points more, and if Palace can do what they did, then we should at least not turn up as usual and hope to avoid defeat.

 

[Turkey]

I keep trying to explain this shit to people. This is why Huddersfield are 1000/1 ON to go down, Fulham are down and the massive likelihood is that Cardiff are also down.

Of course we need points, we need to win some games. But we will and we will be safe.

They won't and they will be relegated.

I agree. I understand the concern and the worry and I feel the disappointment in how we've slid down the table but I think we'll be okay. Look at how Watford demolished Cardiff the other day compared to how they were lucky to come away with a point at our place. Obviously we could cock it up and lose our key home games but I reckon we'll get the points we need.

Comparing our run in to Cardiff.

We're expected to win another 5 games (Huddersfield, Cardiff, Southampton, Bournemouth, Newcastle).

The away records of those sides ranks as 19th, 18th, 15th, 16th, 14th.

Cardiff are expected to win another 2 games (West Ham, Palace).

Their away records rank 11th and 10th.

So not only do we have more games in which we are expected to pick up points, all of them are against sides who have picked up less points away than Cardiff's 'expected' win opponents.

The Everton game on Tuesday will be interesting as you'd think that is winnable for them and it's currently an expected loss, so they could claw back to -3 with that but their other two home games are Chelsea and Liverpool.

Away from home they have trips to Wolves, Albion, Man City, Burnley, Fulham & Man Utd. Worth noting their away record is just as bad as ours this season (8 points).

So the Cardiff home game is looking like a biggie. I think if we beat them it'll be very hard for them to catch us. Not sure there's much logic to it but I weirdly feel quite happy that it'll be a midweek game now rather than original Saturday 3pm. Feel like that gives us a little extra edge.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

[tweet]1099700799054188544[/tweet]

Backs up the thread and the numbers. Yes we are on a bad run, but an expected bad run. March is make or break.

 

[Hamilton]

A draw a Leicester would be a creditable result. I'd take that.

 

[MattBackHome]

Worth a bounce considering there appears to be wet beds all over the place.

Nothing expected at Leicester either. Anything other than a defeat would be a bonus.

Is it possible to see a copy of your original sheet (spreadsheet, not bedsheet)? I'd like to have a little muck around with it.

 

[Bold Seagull]

A draw a Leicester would be a creditable result. I'd take that.

All day long.

Play well but lose narrowly and I wouldn't be that devastated going into Saturday either.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Leicester are in turmoil, no manager and some of their fans think they should be winning the league again, as if this club deserves 2 miracles in a life time.

Good time to play them, we need the points more, and if Palace can do what they did, then we should at least not turn up as usual and hope to avoid defeat.

Bad time to play them to be honest. Caretaker will just let them go out and play, they'll be free from any tension and tactics from the previous manager. They'll go out with nothing to lose but everything to gain for a show for their fans, who will have a sense of relief that there is change ahead so get right behind the team.

 

[Stuart Munday]

Nothing to lose tonight but I cannot see us winning our next 5 home games even playing well, although 11 points out of 15 would keep us on target.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Need a minimum 3 point total from the Leicester, Huddersfield, and Palace games.

 

[Stato]

Only 3pts projected from 4 December to 29 January! That'll test the bladder of some of the bed-wetters.

This post from August said only 3 points between 4 December and 29 January, but could have said 'only 6 points between 4 December and 2 March.'

Giraffe's model suggests that we needed six points from twelve games. We got six points from eleven games. We still have the free swing at Chelsea because we're in another FA Cup Quarter Final.

All the players say that the best thing about Hughton is that he doesn't get too high during the highs and too low during the lows. He will have the squad in the right frame of mind to get what they need from the next few games. If we don't get it, it won't be because of lack of preparation from Chris. It won't be because of the players' lack of belief in his methods and tactics. Those even considering replacing him need to remember two words: Mike Bailey.

 

[zefarelly]

Good post Stato. But things move/alter over time, as does the opposition

Every time I look at the tracker I think it's bollocks, still do, and current thinking is maybe 35 points. . . . Who knows. The joy of cash based competition.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

This post from August said only 3 points between 4 December and 29 January, but could have said 'only 6 points between 4 December and 2 March.'

Giraffe's model suggests that we needed six points from twelve games. We got six points from eleven games. We still have the free swing at Chelsea because we're in another FA Cup Quarter Final.

All the players say that the best thing about Hughton is that he doesn't get too high during the highs and too low during the lows. He will have the squad in the right frame of mind to get what they need from the next few games. If we don't get it, it won't be because of lack of preparation from Chris. It won't be because of the players' lack of belief in his methods and tactics. Those even considering replacing him need to remember two words: Mike Bailey.

Excellent post. The capability of NSC to exchange and repeat ever more hyperbolic slogans IN COMPLETE CONTRAVENTION OF THE FACTS would be unbelievable if it weren't so familiar.

Last night we performed well enough against players many of whom are either real internationals and/or recent Premier League winners. Leicester admittedly are not in good form - evidenced by their last few results - but had we taken our chances we too would have comfortably come away from their ground with a point or all three.

What more do people expect?

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

Excellent post. The capability of NSC to exchange and repeat ever more hyperbolic slogans IN COMPLETE CONTRAVENTION OF THE FACTS would be unbelievable if it weren't so familiar.

Last night we performed well enough against players many of whom are either real internationals and/or recent Premier League winners. Leicester admittedly are not in good form - evidenced by their last few results - but had we taken our chances we too would have comfortably come away from their ground with a point or all three.

What more do people expect?

Agreed -despite the run of results, we are also playing much better than last season I think, especially away from home - scoring goals and creating chances.. this time last year we would have been delighted with the performance last night. This is a tough run, a disappointing run in many respects, but others go on these runs and come out the other side - I think we will too.. I am not convinced in will be Saturday though - might be a horrible game..

 

[Moshe Gariani]

- First seven games yield just five points, NSC goes into meltdown.
- 15 games in a massive drubbing of Palace sees us looking up the table not down.
- we then go 9 games without a win and edge towards the relegation zone by the end of January.
- a MASSIVE March sees us take 10 points from 4 games to edge towards safety
- 7 points in the last 6 games edges us over the line.

All sounds very familiar doesn't it.

Is the whole of the Premier League season really so easy to read based on patterns of fixtures?

Legitimate tweaks to recognise the current status of teams (when it has changed significantly) could improve the predictive power further.

Surely this could be monetised with suitable investment strategy?

Or, more realistically, our extreme compliance with expected results this season is actually quite unusual?

 

[Is it PotG?]

Football is a results business.

 

[Giraffe]

So nothing changed last night. Bed still dry. Our season rests on the next four fixtures, as it was probably always going to do!