Thinking the unthinkable

[greenfordgull]

Considering what's happened in other seasons at the same point - 29 games - the stats look really bad for a top 2 finish and not a lot better for a top 6 finish. In the 12 seasons since 2000, of the 24 teams that finished in the top 2, none had 45 points or less after 29 games (lowest was 46 and there was a 47 and a 48). Also, of the 72 teams that finished in the top 6, only 14 had 45 points or less after 29 games. However, of those 14 teams, 6 were promoted via the playoffs - which probably shows that a team with momentum at the end of the season will have a better chance than one of the long term front runners. Another fact to be aware of is that the lowest total after 29 games to win the playoffs was 38 (it was P*l*c*, who are on 39 at the moment).



If we can get into the playoffs I can see us doing very well, so if there's good odds for us just getting promoted then it may be worth a few quid.

Intersting stuff, 6/72 promoted is 1/12, meaning that most bookies haves priced about right on that analysis, though the 16's Stan James' are offering does look inviting...

 

[Jim D]

Intersting stuff, 6/72 promoted is 1/12, meaning that most bookies haves priced about right on that analysis, though the 16's Stan James' are offering does look inviting...

The way I see it is that if we can get to the playoffs then we have an 11/8 chance of promotion based on the stats. Of course we need to get there first, but if we're 12/1 just for promotion at the moment then it may be worth a little wager.

 

[warmleyseagull]

As per previous got 12/1 and 17/1 is available - think your analysis supports that as being reasonable odds. Have you looked at the range of points in that period - instinctively I would think we are closer to top two at this stage than would be case for 45 pointers in previous seasons.

Considering what's happened in other seasons at the same point - 29 games - the stats look really bad for a top 2 finish and not a lot better for a top 6 finish. In the 12 seasons since 2000, of the 24 teams that finished in the top 2, none had 45 points or less after 29 games (lowest was 46 and there was a 47 and a 48). Also, of the 72 teams that finished in the top 6, only 14 had 45 points or less after 29 games. However, of those 14 teams, 6 were promoted via the playoffs - which probably shows that a team with momentum at the end of the season will have a better chance than one of the long term front runners. Another fact to be aware of is that the lowest total after 29 games to win the playoffs was 38 (it was P*l*c*, who are on 39 at the moment).

If we can get to the playoffs I can see us doing very well, so if there's good odds for us just getting promoted then it may be worth a few quid.

 

[Rugrat]

Interesting - but I can't see Leeds,Blackpool & Hull only losing one game each in their remaining 18 fixtures.

You're absolutely right about that. I just looked at it on a game by game basis and that's how it came out .. there'll be lots of crazy losses that can't be anticipated and other weird results ... gotta start somewhere though ... can't really see anyone except these 10 + Burnley competing for the top 6 slots

 

[raz_18]

Automatic is improbable but not impossible. This league is weird. No one wants to win it. We will make the play offs
My final table

1-West Ham Auto
2-Blackpool Auto
3-Reading
4-Brighton
5-Cardiff
6-Southampton

No Brum?

 

[GT49er]

How you can ignore birmingham is beyond me. They are on better form than us and the main reason people have forgotten about them is they looked at the table and saw them adrift and ignored the fact they had loads of games in hand due to their european exploits. They have now played those and have rolled into the play-offs fairly easily. I think they will finish top 3.

Also, the start of their season was delayed due to the riots. The only thing I disagree with you is them finishing top 3. Top 2, for my money. Chris Hughton knows how to get out of this division!

 

[Rugrat]

Chris Hughton knows how to get out of this division!

B'ham will win it I reckon and Blackpool could nick 2nd (that'd crack me up for all the £££ Allardyce has spent)

 

[terryberry1]

No Brum?

Nope

 

[JCL - the new kid in town]

Not sure this will come out but don't know how to paste an Excel file .. the dates don't line up (too difficult) but the order is correct - yellows are playing against other contenders (Black = home Red = away)

I was bored yesterday

Looking at that but ignoring the predictions as i doubt Birmingham will go unbeaten, i think Birmingham and Blackpool have the easiest run ins on paper with the fewest games against "contenders" and the majority of those at home too. It does look like it might be an exciting end to the season

 

[slimes]

birmingham at 9-1 corals to win the league,blackpool 22-1,great prices if westham slip up.
the mighty brighton are 12th favourites, 199-1 betfair or 208-1 vi bet daq.
advice? worth me putting £10 on west ham at evens ,£7 on brum and £1 on blackpool

 

[Rugrat]

Looking at that but ignoring the predictions as i doubt Birmingham will go unbeaten, i think Birmingham and Blackpool have the easiest run ins on paper with the fewest games against "contenders" and the majority of those at home too. It does look like it might be an exciting end to the season

No you're right but it's knowing which ones they are most likely to lose .. I just looked at it match by match but as I did the same for everyone then I kind of thought that although the points won't be right the relative positions might be. Only thing I know for sure is it won't end up like this but it amused for an hour. Blackpool have got a "much easier" run in for sure

 

[El Presidente]

The last month has been great, but I think results have been better than performances (except for Peterborough). We could easily not be defeated for another six games, but just as easily not win any of them given our history this season to date.

However, Reyes, Mattocks and a fit Vicente are effectively three new Prem standard signings. If CMS rediscovers his shooting boots it could be very giddy indeed by mid March.

 

[BLOCK F]

Think we will probably fall a little short of play-offs,but who knows,everything is very tight.
Need to get CMS firing on all cylinders and bang a few in.Hopefully Vicente and /or Vokes may help in this area as we can't rely on Will Buckley scoring our late winners all the time!
Next season is the one for me,so wouldn't be devastated if we fail to make play-offs.

 

[JCL - the new kid in town]

No you're right but it's knowing which ones they are most likely to lose .. I just looked at it match by match but as I did the same for everyone then I kind of thought that although the points won't be right the relative positions might be. Only thing I know for sure is it won't end up like this but it amused for an hour. Blackpool have got a "much easier" run in for sure

I think its a pretty good guess and game by game is the best way to attempt it. It hink the overall positions are probably pretty accurate but if you took 5 points of each team i think that may be nearer to the final points totals. It will be interesting to see how close your predictions are though in a few months.

 

[Gazwag]

Has anybody played at Wembley three times in a season before

 

[wallington seagull]

I think its possible to reach the play offs, the key? we have so much more strength in depth now with the recent signings and the possibility of another to come on loan. Just look at this team who did NOT start lasy Saturday!

Ankergren

Reyes
Vincelot
Painter
Mattock

Lua Lua
Forster Caskey
Vicente
Noone

Agdestein
Vokes

Subs
Gonzalez
Taricco
Hall
Harley
Kazim

 

[Bold Seagull]

Has anybody played at Wembley three times in a season before

If you include the charity shield, yes, plenty.

 

[Goring-by-Seagull]

Has anybody played at Wembley three times in a season before

England

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

Arsenal used to play their Champions League home games at Wembley.

 

[kevo]

Has anybody played at Wembley three times in a season before

Defo. Even we've played there twice in a season!