Thinking the unthinkable

[greenfordgull]

I agree Looney it is not impossible that a low total like 80 points would suffice, but it is unlikely, that table also suggests we will fall further behind Birmingham and fail to catch Blackpool and Cardiff (assuming the same rate of points is collected over the next 17 games as in the past 6).

 

[Spider]

Whilst it's nice to look up the table and consider how easily we could catch teams up, I'm more interested in points required, since I always find it suprising how similar the points thresholds seem to fall each year.

81, 80, 81, 76, 85, 82, 86, 80, 81, 87


These are the points totals required to beat the third placed team in the Championship for the last 10 years, producing an average of 81.9. Therefore, to beat this we would need 37 points from 17 games. Personally I think this is unlikely, since we wouldn't be able to dip from our current form much at all to reach that points target and we have already seen over the course of the season that we like to fluctuate between very good and very bad runs of form.

Still, it's possible and it's nice to dream!

 

[SeagullinExile]

Reading that just gave me a boner.

BELIEVE.

I just shot my bolt

Saying that, it's just nice to be competing at this level after years of heartache....ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!

 

[Mellotron]

despite being 5-3-0 and some good performances, we haven't really hit top gear...

Oi, 6-2-0. We beat Wrexham on penalties!

 

[DavePage]

I agree Looney it is not impossible that a low total like 80 points would suffice, but it is unlikely, that table also suggests we will fall further behind Birmingham and fail to catch Blackpool and Cardiff (assuming the same rate of points is collected over the next 17 games as in the past 6).

So with teams in contention beating each other who do you think will 80 points, aren’t we all in the same boat?

 

[JCL - the new kid in town]

I think the total to get automatic will be lower this year but points for a play-off will be higher as teams take more points off each other and there may well be a situation where more teams are in with a shout of the playoffs on the last few weekends of the season and could easily go down to goal difference which is where we fair badly to the top 5 but there's not much to choose between the teams around us currently. If we could get a few good wins then who knows where we may be heading.

 

[greenfordgull]

Whilst it's nice to look up the table and consider how easily we could catch teams up, I'm more interested in points required, since I always find it suprising how similar the points thresholds seem to fall each year.

81, 80, 81, 76, 85, 82, 86, 80, 81, 87


These are the points totals required to beat the third placed team in the Championship for the last 10 years, producing an average of 81.9. Therefore, to beat this we would need 37 points from 17 games. Personally I think this is unlikely, since we wouldn't be able to dip from our current form much at all to reach that points target and we have already seen over the course of the season that we like to fluctuate between very good and very bad runs of form.

Still, it's possible and it's nice to dream!

Intersting post, but 2 questions, do you think there is anything to suggest that this year will be towards the top or bottom of that range? Also do you think we wil have a higher points per game ratio, at the end of the season than we do now? (there is good reason to believe this given the player avaliabillity is better than at any other time)

 

[greenfordgull]

So with teams in contention beating each other who do you think will 80 points, aren’t we all in the same boat?

DavePage, we are all in the same boat in the sense we have a similar number of fixtures and the championship is pretty competitive, I was just suggesting that the current form table is not indicative of the points total being low, if you take the past 6 games as an indicactor, it suggests that Brimingham and Blackpool and West ham will all finish with over 80 points.

My guess is that West Ham will be in the top 2 and one of Birmingham and Blackpool or Southampton (the form table is not a definitive guide to future perfomance sadly) will join them. If you really pushed me for an answer I would say Blackpool are the most likely.

 

[saafend_seagull]

I have Blackpool, Charlton, Southend, Fleetwood each way, returns about £20k if all win league lol for a £2 bet. Each way will be close to nothing

 

[DavePage]

DavePage, we are all in the same boat in the sense we have a similar number of fixtures and the championship is pretty competitive, I was just suggesting that the current form tableis not indicative of the points total being low, if you take the past 6 games as indicactor, it suggest that Brimingham and Blackpool and West ham will all finish with over 80 points.

My guess is that West Ham will be in the top 2 and one of Birmingham and Blackpool or Southampton (the form table is not a definitive guide to future perfomance sadly) will join them. If you really pushed me for an answer I would say Blackpool are the most likely.

Sorry, didn’t mean it to sound personal, when I wrote “you” it was supposed to mean you in general as in the board.

 

[greenfordgull]

Sorry, didn’t mean it to sound personal, when I wrote “you” it was supposed to mean you in general as in the board.

Glad no offence was intended as none was taken!

 

[DavePage]

I still believe that the FA cup will have a great bearing on this season. there are currently 4 teams in the top 6 that could face fixture congestion, another side tracked by a Wembley final and the top spot is getting a little further away for the 16th position upwards to cope with

 

[Scoffers]

I feel we will scrape in to 6th

 

[greenfordgull]

I agree about the FA cup it has the capacity to do us, Blackpool, Birminham Southampton and Middlesborough no favours at all. I am not sure that anyone below Burnley can realistically make the playoffs let alone the automatic spots now.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Average of 2 points a game would give us 79 points. Play offs for sure.

Being more realistic an average of 1.55 points per game (what we have averaged so far this season) would give us 71 points.

Would that be enough?

 

[pasty]

I can see it now..... last day of the season and after a poor run of form, Barnsley need a single point to stay up and we also need a single point to guarantee 2nd spot, at the expense of a certain team a few miles along the south coast.........



edit: and to add to my fantasy, Barnsley's single point relegates Palace

 

[Caveman]

I refuse to believe. If you don't expect anything, you can't be disappointed, but you can still be pleasantly surprised.

I like your thinking!! Top man.

But, if you are honest with yourself you are dreaming a bit aren't you.

 

[Caveman]

And where are all the moaners now? Goring Gull, Terryberry etc were saying Poyet's job was in doubt a month ago, and that we were shit, despite being mid table in the Championship with 12 players out injured. You were all very vocal then, are you now prepared to admit that you were completely and utterly WRONG?

This! It shows certain people up doesn't it. Imagine if Poyet had left due to certain sections of the fan base.

I have always said we can lose players through injury and sell players, but we most certainly can not afford to lose Mr Poyet.

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

That, IMO, is the view of negative people. People who will always moan about their lack of luck or success; why, because the fear of failure stops them ever taking a risk or believing.

Just my opinion like....

As fans, whether we 'believe' in automatic promotion or not will have no bearing on whether the team will achieve it or not. It's not us that are on the pitch playing. Therefore, there's no harm in dreaming...

 

[Neil Millin]

There's some real positive thinking out there and true optimism - a measure of how far we've come in the last couple of years. We have a great chance of success this season - the minimum will be cementing our place in the division - which was something lots of people were worried wouldn't be achieved when we had our run of bad results. We should think big and push as hard as possible through to the end of the campaign.