The UK economy: well on the road to recovery?

[drew]

I do hope one day this country will rise to match the great economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. There's just so much suffering here in the UK. It's getting ridiculous.

 

[beorhthelm]

I take it that deeper faster cuts in the first year wouldn't have seriously impacted on you, ie you wouldn't have been forced out of your home or lost your job.

probably not, but who knows. the point is about the economics, not the personal impact. like changes to NHS that have been cost neutral, they aren't cuts are they.

 

[drew]

probably not, but who knows. the point is about the economics, not the personal impact. like changes to NHS that have been cost neutral, they aren't cuts are they.

Are you saying that all the changes to the NHS have been cost neutral? As for your point being about economics, I think that sums up the difference. The point, as I see it, is about society. You will argue that it is economics that funds society's needs but can you hand on heart state that the weakest in society have not been the hardest hit? According to reports, all through this recession, there have been plenty of companies sitting on massive bank balances and equally plenty milking the tax system. Banks have continually failed to lend whilst bolstering their own balance books with our money. And all this time we have had Osbournes mantra ' we're all in this together'.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Apparently we are told and spun that we have turned a corner by Osbourne . What corner ? Where ?

Middle classes and the rich getting richer.

Unemployment is massive , the figures are a scam !

Could go on for hours , dont believe the spin , simply have a look around

Couple of points:

Unemployment in May 2010 at the time of the last Election was just over 8%. It's now 7.8%, so unemployment has fallen, despite the fact the number of people eligible for work has significantly increased.

You say have a look around. Ok lets do that. Restaurants where I live are all full pretty much every night of the week. Look at kids today, with their £40 a month mobile phone contracts, their own cars at 19. Their parents with the latest huge TVs and two foreign holidays a year.

Sure, there are areas of poverty, there have been since the year dot, and a lot more should be done to help those unable to help themselves, but plenty of people are doing OK. I recently spent some time in Greece, a Country which has unfortunately lived way beyond its means, and if you want to see a Capital City on its knees, go to Athens.

 

[ROSM]

Good answer but were all ministers instructed to say that, or,was the economy in a far worse state than we had been led to believe? I believe it was.

Yes they were instructed to. Whatever is said about Coulson (and a lot will be said in the coming months) he knew his audience. The tabloid reading majority who need easy single sentence statements that have a culprit and an explanation. Labour have been woeful at debunking this statement despite the experience of other countries and views of leading economic experts giving them enough evidence to do so.

 

[ROSM]

the ringfencing of health and overseas aid, too politically toxic, have meant too much has had to be carried elsewhere. also theres strong arguement that deeper, quicker cuts in the first year or two would have seen a faster return to growth. as you point oout Darlings plan of action was largly the same an have liitle doubt he'd had similar emergency budget had Labour been relected. so really there has been far less ideology going on than the left like to think (and welfare cost more up front and broadly follows Fields proposals). Osborne has sat on his hands hopeing the economy will sort itself out, done very little to help, hindered a fair bit, but will take credit. jammy barsteward.

The ringfencing of health has been a disaster because its led to more severe cuts to care budgets which mean there is now bed blocking from elderly and terminally ill of all ages. This is a huge impact all the way back through the system

 

[Cheggers]

We are in no way in as bad a position as say Greece, Spain or Portugal. However, in the South east we are more than a little isolated from the rest of the country. If you travel around, and especially around the north, some city centres are like an enlarged London Road, but with more jeggings. And under a Tory government income inequality will always increase. This is why the party exists.

 

[Dandyman]

Couple of points:

Unemployment in May 2010 at the time of the last Election was just over 8%. It's now 7.8%, so unemployment has fallen, despite the fact the number of people eligible for work has significantly increased.

You say have a look around. Ok lets do that. Restaurants where I live are all full pretty much every night of the week. Look at kids today, with their £40 a month mobile phone contracts, their own cars at 19. Their parents with the latest huge TVs and two foreign holidays a year.

Sure, there are areas of poverty, there have been since the year dot, and a lot more should be done to help those unable to help themselves, but plenty of people are doing OK. I recently spent some time in Greece, a Country which has unfortunately lived way beyond its means, and if you want to see a Capital City on its knees, go to Athens.

The number of those in poorly paid part-time work has significantly increased with average wages for low paid workers actually being less than in 2007. If the pay of the worse off was in line with the increases in pay for FTSE 100 directors the minimum wage would now be around £19 per hour. Still, we're all in it together...

 

[Dandyman]

Couple of points:

Unemployment in May 2010 at the time of the last Election was just over 8%. It's now 7.8%, so unemployment has fallen, despite the fact the number of people eligible for work has significantly increased.

You say have a look around. Ok lets do that. Restaurants where I live are all full pretty much every night of the week. Look at kids today, with their £40 a month mobile phone contracts, their own cars at 19. Their parents with the latest huge TVs and two foreign holidays a year.

Sure, there are areas of poverty, there have been since the year dot, and a lot more should be done to help those unable to help themselves, but plenty of people are doing OK. I recently spent some time in Greece, a Country which has unfortunately lived way beyond its means, and if you want to see a Capital City on its knees, go to Athens.

Greece is being killed to keep German banks in business. No wonder it feels like Weimer Germany.

 

[LargeHadronZugzwang]

What economy? .....ah yes the one that Osborne's mentor destroyed by cannibalising the manufacturing sector and flogging off all the oil cheaply. Still, there's always derivatives which equal three times the world economy. Maybe the Bumpkin Billionaires can explain to us how this will be paid back, as they ride first class on the return journey from Cheshire on a £70 billion train.

 

[drew]

Couple of points:

Unemployment in May 2010 at the time of the last Election was just over 8%. It's now 7.8%, so unemployment has fallen, despite the fact the number of people eligible for work has significantly increased.

You say have a look around. Ok lets do that. Restaurants where I live are all full pretty much every night of the week. Look at kids today, with their £40 a month mobile phone contracts, their own cars at 19. Their parents with the latest huge TVs and two foreign holidays a year.

Sure, there are areas of poverty, there have been since the year dot, and a lot more should be done to help those unable to help themselves, but plenty of people are doing OK. I recently spent some time in Greece, a Country which has unfortunately lived way beyond its means, and if you want to see a Capital City on its knees, go to Athens.

Let's forget the 0 hours contracts that people have to take. The fact that more people than ever before have to take part time work (and therefore not unemployed) but need full time work. I suspect that where you live is not indicative of the majority of the country, lucky you!

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Greece is being killed to keep German banks in business. No wonder it feels like Weimer Germany.

And why is Greece in so much trouble exactly?

 

[peejay1958]

Things are looking up.

(Unless you're Ed Balls or Labour of course. )

It must be true - it's in today's Sun!

 

[Beach Hut]

And why is Greece in so much trouble exactly?

Because they thought credit was here forever ?

 

[Steve Foster]

How many of your employees are on zero hour contracts ? minimum wage ? claim tax credits, housing benefits or other in work benefits ? If so why don't you pay them a living wage instead of expecting the state to subsidise you ?

None of my employees are on zero hour contracts;
None of my employees are on minimum wages;
Actually, my lowest paid employee is on £19,500 pa.

You can be a paternal employer, who is a capitalist

 

[1066familyman]

How many of your employees are on zero hour contracts ? minimum wage ? claim tax credits, housing benefits or other in work benefits ? If so why don't you pay them a living wage instead of expecting the state to subsidise you ?

The number of those in poorly paid part-time work has significantly increased with average wages for low paid workers actually being less than in 2007. If the pay of the worse off was in line with the increases in pay for FTSE 100 directors the minimum wage would now be around £19 per hour. Still, we're all in it together...

Exactly! .... and let's not forget the huge Housing Benefit bill, where taxpayers are effectively subsidising buy to let landlords/ladies.

But no, it's benefit scroungers that are apparently costing the hardworking tax payer a fortune

Most people suffering under this government are in fact the "hard working families" they (and all parties to be fair) like to prattle on about.

Here's a telling summary of a report on cuts to Social Care and Welfare from the Campaign for a Fair Society:

SUMMARY:-

The current UK Government aims to significantly reduce the level of public expenditure in the UK by an overall cut of £63.4 billion by 2015, a reduction of 10.8%. However, not everything is being cut. The NHS and Pensions are protected. No 10 and No. 11 have increased their own budgets by over 240% and the level of cuts to other
services varies considerably. If we exclude the areas of growth and protected services there are in fact cuts of £75.2 billion. And of these cuts over 50% fall on just two areas, benefits and local government, despite the fact that together they make up only 26.8% of central government expenditure. Most people do not realise that local government’s primary function (over 60%) is to provide social care to children and adults.

In other words, the cuts are not fair but targeted, and they target people in poverty, disabled people and their families. The government seems to have made no effort to understand the cumulative impact of its cuts on minority groups, especially those with the greatest needs. It has rejected calls for a ‘Cumulative Impact Assessment’ of the cuts despite the obvious fact that those with the most severe disabilities now face the combined impact of:

Social care cuts
Benefit cuts
Housing cuts
Regressive tax increases
For this reason The Centre for Welfare Reform, on behalf of the Campaign for a Fair Society, has done its own analysis - A Fair Society? - how the cuts target disabled people.
Using the government’s own figures, it is clear that by 2015, in England alone, local government and housing will be cut by £16.2 billion. This is a cut in real terms of 41.9%.
Social care for children and adults makes up 60% of all spending over which local authorities have any control. Data collected over the past two years indicates that social care has already been cut by nearly £4 billion, and will be cut by £8 billion by 2015, a cut of about 33%.
Benefits for disabled people and the poorest will also have been cut by £18 billion, a cut of about 20%.

 

[jgmcdee]

Unemployment in May 2010 at the time of the last Election was just over 8%. It's now 7.8%, so unemployment has fallen, despite the fact the number of people eligible for work has significantly increased.

Correct on the first point but not the second; the working population has increased about 1.5% since May 2010.

Although when you look at the breakdown things are somewhat less encouraging. Remember the whole thing about "rebalancing the economy" away from the financial jiggery-pokery and back to good old-fashioned manufacturing? Well over the past 3 years employment in construction has fallen from just over 7% of the working population to less than 6.7%., and employment in manufacturing has fallen from just under 9.1% to 8.9%. The motor trade is down, as is agriculture, but that's okay because real estate is well up.

 

[beorhthelm]

Are you saying that all the changes to the NHS have been cost neutral?

im not saying anything, the fact of the matter is the budgets for NHS were off limits to cuts, have risen nominally and in real terms (slightly dropped in one of the past 4 years as % of GDP). so any reforms in NHS have been shuffling the same cash around.

The ringfencing of health has been a disaster because its led to more severe cuts to care budgets which mean there is now bed blocking from elderly and terminally ill of all ages. This is a huge impact all the way back through the system

agree with that. like so many things seemed like a good idea at the time. NHS has become a sacred cow the Tories couldn't even be seen to trim the budget. its an unfortunate side effect of the adversial politics that a grown up policy couldnt even be entertained.

 

[Flex Your Head]

He just said it was complicated.

Genuine chuckle.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Correct on the first point but not the second; the working population has increased about 1.5% since May 2010.

.

So correct on both points then?