The UK economy: well on the road to recovery?

[Beach Hut]

Anyway Milliband is dropping like a stone in the polls now and unemployment is down so something must be right

 

[Dandyman]

Anyway Milliband is dropping like a stone in the polls now and unemployment is down so something must be right

It helps if you actually look at the Polls...


Pollster Sample dates Sample size CON% LAB% LIB% UKIP%
ELECTION 2010 6 May 2010 37.0 29.7 23.6 3.2
Mail on Sunday/Survation 11 Jul 13 - 12 Jul 13 1,006 28 36 9 20
The Guardian/ICM 12 Jul 13 - 14 Jul 13 1,003 36 36 13 7
Evening Standard/Ipsos-MORI 13 Jul 13 - 15 Jul 13 1,000 29 40 10 12
The Observer/Opinium 23 Jul 13 - 26 Jul 13 1,935 28 39 8 16
The Independent/ComRes 25 Jul 13 - 27 Jul 13 1,001 34 37 10 12
The Sun/YouGov 1 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 1,995 34 40 10 11
Populus 31 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 2,027 29 40 11 12
AVERAGE 11 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 9,967 30.9 38.7 10.0 12.9

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

It helps if you actually look at the Polls...


Pollster Sample dates Sample size CON% LAB% LIB% UKIP%
ELECTION 2010 6 May 2010 37.0 29.7 23.6 3.2
Mail on Sunday/Survation 11 Jul 13 - 12 Jul 13 1,006 28 36 9 20
The Guardian/ICM 12 Jul 13 - 14 Jul 13 1,003 36 36 13 7
Evening Standard/Ipsos-MORI 13 Jul 13 - 15 Jul 13 1,000 29 40 10 12
The Observer/Opinium 23 Jul 13 - 26 Jul 13 1,935 28 39 8 16
The Independent/ComRes 25 Jul 13 - 27 Jul 13 1,001 34 37 10 12
The Sun/YouGov 1 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 1,995 34 40 10 11
Populus 31 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 2,027 29 40 11 12
AVERAGE 11 Jul 13 - 01 Aug 13 9,967 30.9 38.7 10.0 12.9

I think he was referring to Milliband's personal rating, not the Tories, but could be wrong.

Anyway, you haven't answered the previous question as t why Greece is in so much trouble?

 

[Beach Hut]

I think he was referring to Milliband's personal rating, not the Tories, but could be wrong.

You were right but lefties are deluded these days, the empire started to crumble when comrade Ken lost the Major of London

 

[Tubby Mondays]

You were right but lefties are deluded these days, the empire started to crumble when comrade Ken lost the Major of London

And Cameron and Osborne STILL couldnt beat them in election!

 

[Beach Hut]

And Cameron and Osborne STILL couldnt beat them in election!

The labour is slowly repeating what it inflicted on the UK and going bust. Just out of interest why are they alienating their paymasters - the Unions ?

 

[Dandyman]

The labour is slowly repeating what it inflicted on the UK and going bust. Just out of interest why are they alienating their paymasters - the Unions ?

because they are still being manipulated by Blairites who want them to be an updated version of the Whigs.

 

[Dandyman]

Anyway, you haven't answered the previous question as t why Greece is in so much trouble?

Lots of reasons - all capitalist countries are in some degree of crisis (even Germany has falling incomes), Greece has long term historical issues including occupation, civil war and dictatorship which retarded it's economic development, it suffers from widespread tax evasion and the extra-national transfer of capital by the wealthiest Greeks, it's membership of the Euro means it has no real control over key aspects of economic policy and it is being screwed by the Troika in order to prevent the collapse of German banking.

 

[Beach Hut]

because they are still being manipulated by Blairites who want them to be an updated version of the Whigs.

Perhaps there are more in labour who actually want to mimic tories than meets the eye ?

 

[Stoo82]

And still Cameron and Osborne couldnt beat him in an election!

You do realise that in the last general election it would have been the BIGGEST swing since about 1920 for the cons to win an outright victory? It was never going to happen.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Lots of reasons - all capitalist countries are in some degree of crisis (even Germany has falling incomes), Greece has long term historical issues including occupation, civil war and dictatorship which retarded it's economic development, it suffers from widespread tax evasion and the extra-national transfer of capital by the wealthiest Greeks, it's membership of the Euro means it has no real control over key aspects of economic policy and it is being screwed by the Troika in order to prevent the collapse of German banking.

Widespread tax evasion was rife, but you forgot by far the biggest single reason, that Greece was living way, way beyond its means. Years and years of massive public overspending (public sector wages went up by 50% between 1999 and 2007) after they joined the € public sector spending went on increasing at an unsustainable rate.

When I was growing up, I was taught that in order to buy something, you had to be able to afford pay for it. Loke a household budget, you have to balance the books. It's a shame that Governments, including our own, don't realise this.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Widespread tax evasion was rife, but you forgot by far the biggest single reason, that Greece was living way, way beyond its means. Years and years of massive public overspending (public sector wages went up by 50% between 1999 and 2007) after they joined the € public sector spending went on increasing at an unsustainable rate.

When I was growing up, I was taught that in order to buy something, you had to be able to afford pay for it. Loke a household budget, you have to balance the books. It's a shame that Governments, including our own, don't realise this.

Make taxes too high and people will dodge them if they can. Make taxes reasonable and corporations will dodge them if they can. Have no tax collection and end up like Lebanon just before the civil war (tax - particularly tax owed by the Christian Maronites was pretty much written off and the country was bust). No one likes to pay taxes but the alternative is the ruination of society.

As for the OP this country will really be in recovery when real incomes start increasing again and we stop printing money.

 

[beorhthelm]

because they are still being manipulated by Blairites

interesting view. who is being manipulated, beyond Miliband, and who are the Blairites doing so? how have they converted union man Ed Miliband into the union nemesis? and do you see the unions reclaiming the Labour party or starting a new one?

 

[Tubby Mondays]

The labour is slowly repeating what it inflicted on the UK and going bust. Just out of interest why are they alienating their paymasters - the Unions ?

So that the Daily Mail and others who use pointless words like 'paymasters' cant use other pointless phrases like; 'being in the pockets of the unions'. Then the party can actually say that they stand for everyone and that their decisons are based on those members who actually particiapte in the party, rather than everyone who is signed up to it as part of their union membership.

They will also be able to say that The Tories are in the pockets of their 'paymasters' (big businesses, the landed gentry etc), without seeming like hypocrites.

What will the Tories do then? Have to say no we arent - when we can all see from their funding that they are and that that affects their policies or yes we are and we arent going to do anything about it or yes we are, perhaps we had better change as well?

 

[Nibble]

Gordon Brown had a solid recovery plan in place and would have cleared up Blair's mess in a couple of years. Cameron is using the economic crisis to amass more wealth for himself and his business contacts not least by clawing back some of the wealth that was redistributed by the Labour party in the late 90's and early millennium through social reform and a solid welfare state. There are more benefit "cheats" under this government than ever before.

Cameron never expected to get into power, and he was right, he was never voted in. He found himself in power and immediately devised a way to redistribute wealth upwards which he has proceeded to do. My guess, and it is a guess is that he will win the next election but happily **** off soon after with his wealth and retire a billionaire off the back of the UK citizens he has ruined.

 

[Nibble]

Let's be clear about one thing. VERY clear. Unemployment is NOT down. The number of people on JOBSEEkERS is down. Two very, very different things. Cameron has made draconian reforms to unemployment benefit over the last 18 months and forcibly removed people from JSA, those who were clever enough to figure this out and could not be removed from JSA were forced to go onto NEA or work placements.

 

[sten_super]

Let's be clear about one thing. VERY clear. Unemployment is NOT down. The number of people on JOBSEEkERS is down. Two very, very different things. Cameron has made draconian reforms to unemployment benefit over the last 18 months and forcibly removed people from JSA, those who were clever enough to figure this out and could not be removed from JSA were forced to go onto NEA or work placements.

Err, not according to the statistics. Claimant Count (those claiming JSA) was down 33,000 on the previous month, and 168,000 compared to the same period last year. Total unemployment was down 24,000 in the quarter, and 105,000 in the previous year, and economic inactivity (which is how those that can no longer claim JSA would be re-classified, if they didn't move on to employment-based benefits as you suggest) is also down 33,000 in the quarter and 52,000 in the year. You can argue that people have moved into temporary work (through NEA or placements) but for the moment that means that they are not unemployed - until these schemes expire we won't know how many people are doing as you suggest.

 

[Nibble]

Err, not according to the statistics. Claimant Count (those claiming JSA) was down 33,000 on the previous month, and 168,000 compared to the same period last year. Total unemployment was down 24,000 in the quarter, and 105,000 in the previous year, and economic inactivity (which is how those that can no longer claim JSA would be re-classified, if they didn't move on to employment-based benefits as you suggest) is also down 33,000 in the quarter and 52,000 in the year. You can argue that people have moved into temporary work (through NEA or placements) but for the moment that means that they are not unemployed - until these schemes expire we won't know how many people are doing as you suggest.

All total flummery I'm afraid. If you class NEA or work placement as employment you are sorely mistaken.

 

[Buzzer]

Gordon Brown had a solid recovery plan in place and would have cleared up Blair's mess in a couple of years.

Eh? Who was the Chancellor all the while Blair was Prime Minister then?

 

[ROSM]

Indeed Buzzer. The better statement may well have been Darling had a solid recovery plan to clear up Brown's mess.