[Politics] The NSC 'up all night' election night *** OFFICIAL MATCH THREAD ***

[Uh_huh_him]

Professor Sir John Curtice on 5Live earlier this morning expressed the view that Labour didn't win, the Tories lost and bigtime.

In 2019, Labour got 10,269,051 votes, which was 32.!%.
Thus far, Labour have 9,650,254 votes, which is 33.8%.

I guess what we don't know is to what extent people moved their votes around in a way that largely cancelled out others doing the same, but it's difficult to get away from the view that Reform voters handed Labour a large number of seats.

As it's difficult to get away from the fact that UKIP handed Bojo a large number of seats by not standing in 2019.
It's worrying that Farage has effectively been the kingmaker, in the last 2 elections.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Just scanning some results and I see all furore around Faiza Shaheen's deselection in Chingford and Woodford Green almost certainly kept IDS in a job...

IDS (Con) - 17,281
Shama Tatler (Lab) - 12,524
Faiza Shaheen (Ind) - 12,445

Chingford and Woodford Green - General election results 2024

Get the latest news and election results in the 2024 General election from BBC News

www.bbc.co.uk

Yeah I saw Shaheen close to tears blaming Starmer for letting IDS in.
A little more self-awareness might have been good.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

As it's difficult to get away from the fact that UKIP handed Bojo a large number of seats by not standing in 2019.
It's worrying that Farage has effectively been the kingmaker, in the last 2 elections.

He didn’t stand against Boris because 1) he couldn’t compete with Boris on the popularity stakes with the right wing electorate and is ego wouldn’t let him play second fiddle. 2) UKIP were obsolete at that point.
This time round he had a niche with no competition because of the shit show that is the Tory party.
He’s not a king maker, he’s just very careful about the battles he picks. He’s either very clever or a coward. I suspect he’s both.

 

[TomandJerry]

There are only two seats left to declare. South Basildon and East Thurrock is having a full recount starting at 2pm this afternoon. It is believed to be tight, with Reform UK’s James McMurdock apparently likely to become their fifth MP ahead of Labour’s Jack Ferguson. Conservative Stephen Metcalfe, MP there since 2010, is believed to have come third.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Does Angela Raynor get free style advice now? Red and Green should not be seen.....

 

[Uh_huh_him]

A price worth paying.

Yes I suspect you're right.

Starmer may well be building up to his Kinnock vs NUM, moment.

If the left try to undermine him, I suspect he will take them on, and win.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

If a third of the nation voted for a political party and that party takes two thirds of the seats in parliament that is not democracy or a fair reflection, or representation, of the will of the nation. There is no counter argument that stands against it.

If Albion beat a team 3-2 but the other side were awarded the match 2-1 on the basis that their goals came in two different quarters and Albion's in just one you wouldn't be happy. You would say Albion won fair and square. But that is what you have in our electoral system.

Have you only just noticed this?

 

[Machiavelli]

Labour won by the rules. Your analogy is poor because that isn't the rules in football.

The only way to change the system is to get enough MPs to agree to change the system. Find out which party supports PR, and vote for them apart from Reform.

You're right of course, but you missed something out: see ^ in bold

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

Farage’s ‘victory’ speech going well.

 

[goldstone]

The Tories have abandoned sensible policies in recent years, they've made themselves a pointless party.

They need to reflect on what they've done to the country in the past decade and think carefully before veering off further to the right

Veering further to the right is what the Tories DO need to do. They've been far to close to the centre with high taxation and a failure to address the wokeism destroying our country.

 

[Weststander]

Farage …. that was lively

 

[nwgull]

With you, we’re the last FPTP stalwarts on nsc, stubborn f@ckers.

One of my reasons was to keep out extremes, unlike in France, Netherlands and Germany just now. FPTP prevented a further 87 Reform MP’s, job done.

But this is the biggest disparity of an overall majority vote share to MP’s in history, 33.7% of the vote delivered 64% of the Commons. Feels odd. Feels unfair, but I’m pleased Labour have a chance to mend.

If France had a FPTP system like ours, National Rally (Le Pen's lot) would already have a majority and be in goverment with 33% of the vote. FPTP doesn't keep out extremes out of actual power once they reach a tipping point of popular support, which seems to be in the low 30s.

I wouldn't have objected to Reform winning a proportional 90 odd seats based on their popular vote as it wouldn't have give given them any real influence in a parliament of 650. Balancing that out, the Lib Dems would've had over 80 seats and the Greens about 45.

 

[pasty]

Farage …. that was lively

Is my hearing going or did he really say “oh do f*** up really please love”. Around 1.24

 

[Gabbiano]

Why the wins for the Greens in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley?

Nice to see the Greens get some extra seats but would like to understand why those two in particular.

Brighton and Bristol are full of left leaning, airy fairy, crunchy, hippy types of course, as we're so often told. So the Green vote suits those demographics.

What is it about the other two very rural seats?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Just a bit tired of being told x person y person is an anti Semite, when I come from a Jewish background, I know what anti Semitism is, I agree that Labour has had a good landslide, but like I said everyone involved in this was stupid, she shouldn't have been deselected the eve of the deadline, but also she should have stood aside, another fundamentally stupid decision, as Labour would have and should have won easily. Once again nuance goes out the window and its something to do with Jeremy Corbyn again.

Just on the matter of timing, and without wishing to get bogged down in the specifics of this case, if a party doesn't think a candidate is suitable for any reason it shouldn't matter if it's the eve of the deadline, 6months before or 2years into the Parliament.

 

[Berty23]

Veering further to the right is what the Tories DO need to do. They've been far too close to the centre with high taxation and a failure to address the wokeism destroying our country.

You think that elections can be won without winning the centre?

 

[A1X]

 

[Deadly Danson]

Veering further to the right is what the Tories DO need to do. They've been far to close to the centre with high taxation and a failure to address the wokeism destroying our country.

Surely actual adults don't really use the term "wokeism destroying our country" do they?! I mean, who on earth actually thinks like that?

 

[HyperTony]

I sayed up for the Truss finale, refused to go to bed until i'd had my pudding and low and behold i got Baker sprinkles for free!! A wonderful night.

2 things are obvious, the outcome is the change that was needed and now we'll see if any change is actually possible.
The way we got to the outcome is concerning, a large minority went further right while the centre right stayed at home. No uplift in left support (on a numbers basis) so there's a lot of work to win over the stay at home gang and those who "just want their country back". (I have no idea what they mean)
In 2019 the Brexit vote disappeared (obviously) i thought the relative numbers in terms of support of Reform are comparable to 2015, so is the same going to happen in 2029?

I just hope this is the first sign of a generational change, the dyed in the wool 1 party voter is gone and people are more open to supporting different parties during their life based on real policy and performance and not based on some grotesque pantomime.

I think i'm still tired.

 

[Berty23]

Surely actual adults don't really use the term "wokeism destroying our country" do they?! I mean, who on earth actually thinks like that?

You mean you think that people calling out injustice does not destroy a country? How very dare you?