The main competition - all fixtures analysis - we are going up as champions

[Official Old Man]

Newcastles next three could very easily seal their fate. Incredible really.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Newcastles next three could very easily seal their fate. Incredible really.

If Newcastle lose to us on Tuesday - which they will, handsomely - all bets are off. We'll be four points clear and they'll be suddenly playing catch-up, with a shit-hot Huddersfield team hot on their tails. Fans on the manager's back. Board on the manager's back. Fans on the board's back. Cue mass walkouts stupidly early and rubbish cardboard signs bearing non-supportive messages. Same as it ever was on Tyneside. Like you get prizes for attendance levels. Fvck 'em.

 

[Giraffe]

Well after some erratic results from all of the contenders other than Huddersfield, this is the current update. Newcastle's win at ours (which was predicted as a draw) was a big swing and hence the predicted gap to them has gone.

It therefore ends with us and Newcastle locked on 98 points (after we **** it up at Villa, to probably lose the title on goal difference) Huddersfield five points behind. A win at Villa though and we take the title on 100 points which has a very nice feel to it.

It really highlights how now we are locked on the same points we both have very similar run ins in terms of opponents.

Promotion party at Norwich.

In other news, Fulham edge out Wednesday for 6th, Leeds 5th, Reading 4th.

*** quick reminder of the logic for all teams analysed:

If at home to top ten - draw
If at home to anyone else - win

If away to top twelve - draw
If away to anyone else - win

 

[Giraffe]

Quick update on this.

Against the original spreadsheet prediction this is how we are all looking against where we should be. With the exception of the collapse of Wednesday and Norwich it's fairly accurate so far:

Original Current
Newcastle 79 Newcastle 78 (one point behind)
Brighton 78 Brighton 77 (one point behind)
Huddersfield 73 Huddersfield 71 (two points behind)
Sheff Weds 70 Leeds 69 (spot on)
Leeds 69 Reading 67 (one point ahead)
Reading 68 Sheff Weds 62 (EIGHT points behind)
Norwich 65 Fulham 61 (one point behind)
Fulham 62 Norwich 57 (TEN points behind)

As I always said I felt the points totals were too high but the gap would be about right. So far so good, actually one point further ahead than Huddersfield than I thought, and holding Newcastle where I thought.

 

[Giraffe]

And this now makes the final position:

 

[Official Old Man]

BHA is how I see it although Villa away could be a defeat after promotion.
Udders is way off my spreadsheet though. Four draws that are winnable IMHO.

 

[Rugrat]

And this now makes the final position:

Can't see a 7 point gap to 3rd
Thankfully we both have to play Wolves away ... assume the same result whatever it is
Our Narch away is their Derby away ... so assume that's all square
Want Narch to beat Villa on April 1 and go to Hudders in 'confident' mood, nick 1 maybe even 3 points
April 8 games could be really significant. May be a must win for Wendy if they fail at Barnsley next time out. If we can equal or better what Hudders do at Forest my confidence levels will rise

 

[Mileoakman]

And this now makes the final position:

I think your calculations for Huddersfield are wrong as you've given them a win at Birmingham but not updated their total. All else being equal that gives them 93

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[Bwian]

Us finishing on 97? Seriously? I can see us struggling to hit 92. That is 5 wins from 8. Huddersfield would need 93.

Too many chickens being counted at the moment.

 

[Petee]

Are people still not getting [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s tables? Obviously, all of the top 3 won't go unbeaten until the end of season (highly unlikely anyway). It is just using a formula based on who each team is facing.

 

[Bwian]

Are people still not getting [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s tables? Obviously, all of the top 3 won't go unbeaten until the end of season (highly unlikely anyway). It is just using a formula based on who each team is facing.

We know what it means.If the results and final table look anything close to most of us will be surprised. Happy but surprised.

 

[Machiavelli]

Are people still not getting [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s tables? Obviously, all of the top 3 won't go unbeaten until the end of season (highly unlikely anyway). It is just using a formula based on who each team is facing.

It is, although despite claims of accuracy, even [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] admits that the points totals are too high, and that has been quite clearly borne out by what has transpired thus far.

 

[Petee]

It is, although despite claims of accuracy, even [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] admits that the points totals are too high, and that has been quite clearly borne out by what has transpired thus far.

Of course the points totals are exaggerated but the positions aren't as it is the same formula for all 3. So if at the end of the season, we are top as predicted, I will be very happy.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

Happy the Giraffe theory. Job done, can I crack open the Bolly now?

 

[saafend_seagull]

We are pretty dire away from home in 2017 so no chance of that point total.

We need 92 points. Would be handy if Norwich match Sheffield w and Fulham result though in the next game.

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[Giraffe]

As I've said from the beginning, its not about the points total, which I always said was over inflated, it is about the GAP. That's the theory behind these kind of predictions because what it was highlighting was the difficulty of the run in for each team and nothing else.

By way of a quick update, this is the position after the weekends game, with Huddersfield now the obvious losers, having failed to take 3 points in a game they should have done. Reading won a game they should have drawn and are now predicted to level up with Huddersfield at the end of the season. We are still edging Newcastle by a point.

Remember the set logic of prediction is:

If at home to top ten - draw
If at home to anyone else - win

If away to top twelve - draw
If away to anyone else - win

PROMOTION sealed with a win at home to Wigan.
TITLE is won with a final day nail biter draw at VIlla.

 

[Giraffe]

I'd also add, from the original prediction at this stage the table should be:

Newcastle 82 (+1 from actual)
Brighton 81 (+1 from actual)
Huddersfield 76 (+5 from actual)

So pretty accurate for ourselves and Toon and Huddersfield clearly let down by Saturday's disaster!

And in other news, Fulham look a very good bet to reach the play offs, with MASSIVE completely falling on their arses!!!

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I'd also add, from the original prediction at this stage the table should be:

Newcastle 82 (+1 from actual)
Brighton 81 (+1 from actual)
Huddersfield 76 (+5 from actual)

So pretty accurate for ourselves and Toon and Huddersfield clearly let down by Saturday's disaster!

And in other news, Fulham look a very good bet to reach the play offs, with MASSIVE completely falling on their arses!!!

Massive have secured a whopping FIVE points from their last 7 games (W1 D2 L4)

 

[Giraffe]

Massive have secured a whopping FIVE points from their last 7 games (W1 D2 L4)

Incredible choking, on an almost unprecedented level. Really hard to believe given they have a million fans at each game, home and away.

 

[Napper]

Incredible choking, on an almost unprecedented level. Really hard to believe given they have a million fans at each game, home and away.

Great viewing.

Last game looks tasty

Massive v Fulham