The main competition - all fixtures analysis - we are going up as champions

[Eeyore]

I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.

To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.

So,
- If at home to top ten - draw
- If at home to anyone else - win

- If away to top twelve - draw
- If away to anyone else - win

Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!

I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.

The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.

Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go at the international break in mid March. That is real squeeky bum time, but their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.

I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.

Laugh away

You don't think any of us will lose ?

 

[daib0]

Latest projections of final table, if form shown so far this season overall is kept up:

Newcastle 98

Brighton 96
--------------------------------------------
Huddersfield 91

Reading 86

Leeds Utd 82

Sheff Wed 82
-------------------------------------------
Norwich 73


But of course, this just goes on whole of season form, and is not rewarding teams currently on great runs like Huddersfield and Norwich.

So it’s still all to play for!

 

[Giraffe]

You don't think any of us will lose ?

See above!

The purpose of the analysis is to highlight the difference in toughness of games as opposed to the points number or games won or lost.

 

[Giraffe]

Latest projections of final table, if form shown so far this season overall is kept up:

Newcastle 98

Brighton 96
--------------------------------------------
Huddersfield 91

Reading 86

Leeds Utd 82

Sheff Wed 82
-------------------------------------------
Norwich 73


But of course, this just goes on whole of season form, and is not rewarding teams currently on great runs like Huddersfield and Norwich.

So it’s still all to play for!

Interesting that that also shows three teams on 90+ points.

 

[Icy Gull]

The thing is whilst I accept the total points are probably overstated, what we have shown this season is we are very good at dispatching the lesser teams. In that last eight games we are playing seven teams currently in the bottom half:

Blackburn 23rd
Birmingham 14th
QPR 19th
Wolves 18th
Wigan 22nd
Bristol City 20th
Aston Villa 16th

Yes they may be raising their games if they are in relegation battle, but we won't exactly be taking the foot off the pedal, and class should therefore win the day.

I would expect Birmingham, QPR, Bristol and Villa to be clear of relegation trouble and thinking of their holidays by the time we play them. Wigan may already be down.

You clearly have a good drug dealer

 

[moggy]

I'm going for an Australian theme.
There are big towns in Australia called Brighton and Newcastle so I've promoted both them.
There isn't towns called Leeds or reading.
So the playoff winner comes from either Sheffield Wednesday or Huddersfield.
Being Sheffield is based in Tasmania that leaves Huddersfield.
Huddersfield sort of appears as a small homestead so as that's not a town, that makes them play-off winners.
See, all very scientific

 

[lancyclaret]

Three Yorkshire teams in the play-offs? The thought of another White Rose team in the PL makes me feel nauseous - bad enough with Hull and Middlesbrough in top flight.

 

[worthingseagull123]

It is asking a lot for us to not lose another game this season.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Wildly optimistic. I'm going for 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats. That should be do-able and would give us a total of 91 points.

 

[Paris]

We'll be playing the kids at Villa Park at the beginning of May. We'll parade the league title in front of our raucous following, their fans and chairman. A man who stated Villa would become the biggest team in world football under his leadership. That night Tony Bloom will lead the victorious Albion team and management hierarchy through the streets of Brighton and Hove on horseback. Some of our heroes will still be finishing off the fish and chips that were bought for them on the jubilant journey home, having been clapped off the A23 by a Princess Diana funeral type crowd(in number).

 

[Worried Man Blues]

It's brilliant what can go wrong!

 

[Giraffe]

We'll be playing the kids at Villa Park at the beginning of May. We'll parade the league title in front of our raucous following, their fans and chairman. A man who stated Villa would become the biggest team in world football under his leadership. That night Tony Bloom will lead the victorious Albion team and management hierarchy through the streets of Brighton and Hove on horseback. Some of our heroes will still be finishing off the fish and chips that were bought for them on the jubilant journey home, having been clapped off the A23 by a Princess Diana funeral type crowd(in number).

The highlight of this post is the last two words (in number), an important clarification.

And I can see all of that happening, although perhaps a Shetland pony rather than a horse for our Tony.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Three Yorkshire teams in the play-offs? The thought of another White Rose team in the PL makes me feel nauseous - bad enough with Hull and Middlesbrough in top flight.

Two things here:

1. Neither of those are PROPER Yorkshire, are they?
2. Quite possible neither will be in next year's Prem anyway!

 

[Paris]

Two things here:

1. Neither of those are PROPER Yorkshire, are they?
2. Quite possible neither will be in next year's Prem anyway!

3. Reading are a bit lively under the leadership of that bloke from the Crystal Maze.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Three Yorkshire teams in the play-offs? The thought of another White Rose team in the PL makes me feel nauseous - bad enough with Hull and Middlesbrough in top flight.

What's wrong with Yorkshire. Technically the home of football, where it all started

 

[Giraffe]

Updated now after the recent fixtures. Unexpected wins for us v Barnsley and Huddersfield v Reading mean we are charging ahead as champions with Huddersfield now edging out Newcastle.

We only need a couple of draws from next two games to maintain this.

 

[Iovan The Sweeper]

This time last month, the BBC ran a story about a "Super Computer" SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) which predicted the final table, with great accuracy it seems. Accurate in that it seems to have torpedoed Huddersfield's chances completely



http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38663851

 

[Giraffe]

This time last month, the BBC ran a story about a "Super Computer" SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) which predicted the final table, with great accuracy it seems. Accurate in that it seems to have torpedoed Huddersfield's chances completely

View attachment 82434

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38663851

I think even my spreadsheet will be closer than this!

 

[Giraffe]

Updated again after the conclusion of this weekends matches. Below par results for Newcastle, Reading (wahey) and Sheffield Wednesday and above par results for us and Leeds, means that we are going to walk this division now

And Huddersfield will pip Newcastle.

Remaining play offs still nailed on to be Reading, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday.

 

[Giraffe]

Remember this is based on:

If at home to top ten - draw
If at home to anyone else - win

If away to top twelve - draw
If away to anyone else - win

A logical, unbiased view of the remaining fixtures.