[Politics] The Labour Government

[A1X]

Well at least people have decided to switch from mad hyperbole about the Albion to mad hyperbole about the Government…

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

What do they say about economists..put twenty in a room get 20 different answers..

base rate cuts still forecast but not as many and as soon as first muted…meanwhile ten year gilt yield rises


re businesses I guess it’s what story u listen to…I’ve read plenty of ones like these

Archie Norman, chairman of Mark & Spencer, told The Telegraph that the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributionsannounced in the Budget would inevitably lead to higher prices and lower economic activity.

He said: “It is just unassailable arithmetic that if you put up National Insurance to that extent you will take money out of profits, out of funds that would have been available for investment, or for paying corporation tax, or for employing people

and……

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) said it was mothballing “significant” investment plans in response to the increase in employer National Insurance contributions.

Murray Paul, JLR’s public affairs director, told a Business and Trade Committee hearing that the added cost “has had the effect that we are having to unwind some investment that we were planning to make in the business over the next five year period”.

Archie Norman is a Tory and a former MP…I wouldn’t expect him to support anything Labour do.

My reply was more in response to the dramatic and hyperbolic comments of @Rdodge30 . Even your posts don’t suggest the end of the world in a years time.

 

[Rdodge30]

Well at least people have decided to switch from mad hyperbole about the Albion to mad hyperbole about the Government…

Not just Albion fans and not really hyperbole

Im honestly still in shock from the budget, no joking.

Starmer and Reeves - honestly it’s mind blowing, I really am struggling for words sat here. It’s so bad I think in 18 months time they will both be gone.

 

[Rdodge30]

My reply was more in response to the dramatic and hyperbolic comments of @Rdodge30 . Even your posts don’t suggest the end of the world in a years time.

Only time will tell.
I have much to lose so hope that I am wrong
but I bet all the money in my pockets I’m right.

 

[Giraffe]

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Not just Albion fans and not really hyperbole

Im honestly still in shock from the budget, no joking.

Starmer and Reeves - honestly it’s mind blowing, I really am struggling for words sat here. It’s so bad I think in 18 months time they will both be gone.

What do Sicknote Shaun and Bullshit John think of all this?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Archie Norman is a Tory and a former MP…I wouldn’t expect him to support anything Labour do.

My reply was more in response to the dramatic and hyperbolic comments of @Rdodge30 . Even your posts don’t suggest the end of the world in a years time.

Noted re Norman…..and I’m sure it would work the other way as well…..and whilst the signs aren’t that positive imo….its early days yet and if things turn out well for the economy then great

 

[Weststander]

The posh chancer who took-over Southampton FC and destroyed the business.

 

[Rdodge30]

What do Sicknote Shaun and Bullshit John think of all this?

I still see BS John from time to time, he is a manager in a retail shop in the same street as one of mine. You would simply not believe how John has turned that company around since he became manager!! Oh and the bloke who was there before Hopeless! …and don’t think for one minute John is taking any nonsense from head office? He’s told them straight. Actually head office have turned around and told John he’s one of the best managers they’ve ever had.

I said, “I always knew you were management material John” …. Which went totally over his head but anyone who’s worked on the shop floor knows exactly what management material means

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Only time will tell.
I have much to lose so hope that I am wrong
but I bet all the money in my pockets I’m right.

You seem quite stressed about this? I don’t know what you do, or what you have to lose, but I’m willing to suggest it won’t be half as bad as you believe right now.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I read that.

If your point is ‘what an absolute wretched c*** Rupert Lowe MP is’, it’s a point well made.

 

[Bodian]

The posh chancer who took-over Southampton FC and destroyed the business.

This chap?

 

[Bozza]

Archie Norman is a Tory and a former MP…I wouldn’t expect him to support anything Labour do.

My reply was more in response to the dramatic and hyperbolic comments of @Rdodge30 . Even your posts don’t suggest the end of the world in a years time.

It would be hyperbole to suggest the end of the world is nigh, but surely it's indisputable that Starmer and Reeves are gambling somewhat with the measures they are imposing?

The recent pieces in The Guardian reinforce that, don't they, such as the below.

1. UK businesses cutting staff at fastest rate since 2021 after budget​

​

UK businesses are cutting staff numbers at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis, according to a closely watched business survey blaming the government's tax-raising budget.​

​

The latest snapshot from the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, which is monitored by the Treasury and the Bank of England, showed employment levels fell in December at the fastest rate since 2009, excluding the period during the coronavirus pandemic.​

​

The survey of 650 manufacturers and 650 service sector companies showed a combination of softer demand, rising employment costs and squeezed profit margins led to a reduction in private sector headcount.​

“Economic growth momentum has been lost since the robust expansion seen earlier in the year, as businesses and households have responded negatively to the new Labour government’s downbeat rhetoric and policies,” said Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the PMI survey.​

​

“Firms are responding to the increase in national insurance contributions and new regulations around staffing with a marked pull-back in hiring.”​

​

2. Growth expectations among UK firms take ‘decisive turn for worse’, says CBI​

​

Growth expectations among UK companies have taken “a decisive turn for the worse”, in a fresh blow to Rachel Reeves amid warnings that business confidence has plummeted since the budget.​

​

For the first time this year, expectations for growth have turned negative, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s latest growth indicator, which shows that a majority of companies expect activity to decline in the three months to February.​

​

Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to decline, including in consumer services, with more firms in the business and professional services sectors expecting a drop in activity than a rise in the next three months.​

​

The gloomier outlook comes as private sector activity declined again in the three months to November, according to the CBI, with all three major sectors – services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail – reporting falling business volumes, sales or output.​

​

Surely not even you will just brush this away "It's just a bitter typical Tory talking shit"...

Again, though, that's not to suggest things are going to get shit(ter). Lots of gambles win, and Starmer and Reeves are looking to the medium term and beyond. Short-term pain for long-term gain largely seems to the mantra.

 

[Rdodge30]

Again, though, that's not to suggest things are going to get shit(ter). Lots of gambles win and Starmer and Reeves are looking to the medium term and beyond. Short-term pain for long-term gain largely seems to the mantra.

Small businesses with small profit margins will fold under the dual problems of increased taxation and less customer spending power in the short to medium term

 

[Bozza]

I read that.

If your point is ‘what an absolute wretched c*** Rupert Lowe MP is’, it’s a point well made.

I'm equally no fan of Rupert Lowe, but he does seem to be levelling exactly the same criticisms at the civil service as the current government, doesn't he?

Starmer accuses Whitehall of being comfortable with failure in landmark speech

Prime minister sets out milestones for delivery but faces claims of watering down targets and ignoring immigration

www.theguardian.com

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Noted re Norman…..and I’m sure it would work the other way as well…..and whilst the signs aren’t that positive imo….its early days yet and if things turn out well for the economy then great

It depends what you mean by well. I’m of the view we are still in very choppy waters regarding the world economy especially with Trump and his tariff driven nationalism only a few weeks away now….and I’d settle for 1% growth (growth is growth after all) , 2.5-3% inflation and slightly lower BoE rate this time next year.

 

[Bozza]

Small businesses with small profit margins will fold under the dual problems of increased taxation and less customer spending power in the short to medium term

They're happy to let impoverished pensioners perish this winter, so maybe they're equally happy for a number of businesses to go the same way.

Maybe it's for the greater good, and all that.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I'm equally no fan of Rupert Lowe, but he does seem to be levelling exactly the same criticisms at the civil service as the current government, doesn't he?

Starmer accuses Whitehall of being comfortable with failure in landmark speech

Prime minister sets out milestones for delivery but faces claims of watering down targets and ignoring immigration

www.theguardian.com

I read his rant against the public sector as a whole not just the civil service. It’s vile.

Do you generally believe Starmer’s challenges to the civil service is of the same order of criticism as these little nuggets?

“Who pays who's wage? All of these arrogant little men and women across public sector leadership, working from home with their comfortable salary and generous pensions. Many of whom, do quite frankly sod all. I want to know - where is the accountability? Who do they answer to? Work with almost ANY part of the public sector - it's a joke. Long waits, massive delays, inept people. Nobody cares! They just don't care. There are good people, but they're drowned out by the overwhelming incompetence of their colleagues.”

 

[Rdodge30]

WRT @Bozza reply below it seems that you are being somewhat hyperbolic saying it will result in high inflation very quickly.

I can see the logic for an increase in inflation above target in the short term (2.7 compared to 2.0) but it's a bit OTT to claim that's high.

Isn’t it already 2.7% and the new taxation doesn’t come into effect until April

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It would be hyperbole to suggest the end of the world is nigh, but surely it's indisputable that Starmer and Reeves are gambling somewhat with the measures they are imposing?

The recent pieces in The Guardian reinforce that, don't they, such as the below.

1. UK businesses cutting staff at fastest rate since 2021 after budget​

​

UK businesses are cutting staff numbers at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis, according to a closely watched business survey blaming the government's tax-raising budget.​

​

The latest snapshot from the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, which is monitored by the Treasury and the Bank of England, showed employment levels fell in December at the fastest rate since 2009, excluding the period during the coronavirus pandemic.​

​

The survey of 650 manufacturers and 650 service sector companies showed a combination of softer demand, rising employment costs and squeezed profit margins led to a reduction in private sector headcount.​

“Economic growth momentum has been lost since the robust expansion seen earlier in the year, as businesses and households have responded negatively to the new Labour government’s downbeat rhetoric and policies,” said Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the PMI survey.​

​

“Firms are responding to the increase in national insurance contributions and new regulations around staffing with a marked pull-back in hiring.”​

​

2. Growth expectations among UK firms take ‘decisive turn for worse’, says CBI​

​

Growth expectations among UK companies have taken “a decisive turn for the worse”, in a fresh blow to Rachel Reeves amid warnings that business confidence has plummeted since the budget.​

​

For the first time this year, expectations for growth have turned negative, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s latest growth indicator, which shows that a majority of companies expect activity to decline in the three months to February.​

​

Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to decline, including in consumer services, with more firms in the business and professional services sectors expecting a drop in activity than a rise in the next three months.​

​

The gloomier outlook comes as private sector activity declined again in the three months to November, according to the CBI, with all three major sectors – services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail – reporting falling business volumes, sales or output.​

​

Surely not even you will just brush this away "It's just a bitter typical Tory talking shit"...

Again, though, that's not to suggest things are going to get shit(ter). Lots of gambles win and Starmer and Reeves are looking to the medium term and beyond. Short-term pain for long-term gain largely seems to the mantra.

No, I wasn’t saying it’s a bitter Tory talking shit. I don’t think my choice of words suggested this? I know a bit about him and could have predicted his comments. This is all.

My posts tonight have mainly countered the very specific comments from one poster. I dont feel 2025 will be about high inflation, high unemployment and recession and SKS and RR both gone in 18 months. None of us truly know, there’s varying opinion and analysis out there and our beliefs are, to a degree, based on this. I have chosen a cheerier outlook than @Rdodge30 and it remains to be seen where we end up. I have stated in an earlier post what “good” means to me.