The Jeremy Corbyn thread

[Buzzer]

That's exactly it. As Buzzer has said all the data, every single metric you look at, they all point to a massive Labour defeat - today.

However given time, a 'bad' Brexit, a recession, a scandal, and even if people still don't like Corbyn they might vote against the Tories on the 'throw the *******s out' principle.

Even with a bad Brexit, I'm not sure there would be enough time for it to hit people's pockets before 2020 and Theresa May still has a get out of jail free card there because if the Brexit deal goes sour she can always call a snap election right away, tell everyone that we'll all be fine and the experts are always wrong and just blag it. I'd certainly keep that option open.

I think it would need another external financial crisis to sink the Tories. Looking at the candidate might be the Euro with Spain, Italy, Portugal or possibly France going down the Swannee, Greece is probably going to need another bail out soon, all those junk bonds that the European Central Bank has bought could put things at risk, an oil crisis in the Middle East, Russia and Turkey could get nasty and then there's Deutsche Bank. It's not called the world's most dangerous bank for nothing.

 

[GT49er]

IF it's the will of the people, you won't worry about a second referendum then.

It is the will of the people. Did you not notice we had a referendum about it?

 

[GT49er]

I think the point is more that that people will vote for the LibDems in that hope for a second referendum, not that the LibDems will ever get the chance to enact that policy. A group of 20% or so of the country could make a difference in the result (although I imagine a lot will be disgruntled Labour voters)

Disgruntled labour voters: yes, probably those masses of labour voters who voted to leave, perhaps. Now that one of their leaders, Dianne Abbot, at the Labour Party Conference has branded them (us) as racist, they will be even more disgruntled, That won't send them to the Lib Dems though - more likely UKIP.

 

[spring hall convert]

Disgruntled labour voters: yes, probably those masses of labour voters who voted to leave, perhaps. Now that one of their leaders, Dianne Abbot, at the Labour Party Conference has branded them (us) as racist, they will be even more disgruntled, That won't send them to the Lib Dems though - more likely UKIP.

This does ignore the fact that UKIP have their own problems. Primarily a green and untested leader. She could well be the Caroline Bennett to Farage's Caroline Lucas.

Whilst he couldn't be further from my cup of tea it is undeniable that Farage is box office.

 

[GT49er]

This does ignore the fact that UKIP have their own problems. Primarily a green and untested leader. She could well be the Caroline Bennett to Farage's Caroline Lucas.

Whilst he couldn't be further from my cup of tea it is undeniable that Farage is box office.

I think UKIP will fade away and die - UNLESS there is an attempted coup by the chattering classes to overturn the result of the referendum, which is the scenario a few remainers on here are dreaming about - in which case UKIP will be back at the centre of things and Farage will be back in like Flynn!

 

[Buzzer]

This does ignore the fact that UKIP have their own problems. Primarily a green and untested leader. She could well be the Caroline Bennett to Farage's Caroline Lucas.

Whilst he couldn't be further from my cup of tea it is undeniable that Farage is box office.

I think you're right, a big part of their rise as a party of protest came from Farage styling himself as the outsider and positioning himself as Labour's worst nightmare. As you say, I can't see the new leader having the same effect. Their support is strong at the moment but it is extremely shallow and they have some big financial problems too with backers pulling back now. I think they will steadily decline after Labour finish their civil war.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Yet Nigel Farage said if it was 52-48 remain, then it was far from over. it?

simester, you know better, facts are meaningless in the great brexit push

 

[Simster]

I think UKIP will fade away and die - UNLESS there is an attempted coup by the chattering classes to overturn the result of the referendum, which is the scenario a few remainers on here are dreaming about - in which case UKIP will be back at the centre of things and Farage will be back in like Flynn!

A coup suggests something undemocratic - I couldn't advocate that obviously. But a coalition featuring the Lib Dems demanding a vote on the deal negotiated would be something I'm holding out for.

 

[Simster]

It is the will of the people. Did you not notice we had a referendum about it?

You seem happy to ignore the rather important point that nobody has had the chance to approve the actual outcome. I've yet to read a credible argument against having a vote on the deal negotiated.

 

[Hampster Gull]

You seem happy to ignore the rather important point that nobody has had the chance to approve the actual outcome. I've yet to read a credible argument against having a vote on the deal negotiated.

Indeed. We should absolutely have a vote. Parliament asked for input to their decison with the vote earlier this year and they should do so once they have something to present to us.

 

[spring hall convert]

But a coalition featuring the Lib Dems demanding a vote on the deal negotiated would be something I'm holding out for.

What's the scenario where you see the Tories needing coalition help out of interest?

 

[Hampster Gull]

What's the scenario where you see the Tories needing coalition help out of interest?

Theyve lost my vote

 

[Simster]

What's the scenario where you see the Tories needing coalition help out of interest?

As I said earlier in the thread, one where the Lib Dems roar back with 20-25% of the popular vote, thanks to Labour's lurch to the left and the Conservative division in Europe both allowing the Lib Dems to finally differentiate themselves from both parties.

 

[Buzzer]

As I said earlier in the thread, one where the Lib Dems roar back with 20-25% of the popular vote, thanks to Labour's lurch to the left and the Conservative division in Europe both allowing the Lib Dems to finally differentiate themselves from both parties.

If the Lib Dems stand on a platform that's heavily pro-Europe then they will probably not make any ground in the West Country which is their traditional heartland. You piss off the Cornish fishermen at your peril, it makes for terrible PR having them against you.

 

[Simster]

If the Lib Dems stand on a platform that's heavily pro-Europe then they will probably not make any ground in the West Country which is their traditional heartland. You piss off the Cornish fishermen at your peril, it makes for terrible PR having them against you.

It would certainly be a calculated risk. But their South West heartlands surely extend way beyond the fishing villages of Cornwall. What about the rest of the region, which has benefitted heavily from EU grants?

 

[Buzzer]

It would certainly be a calculated risk. But their South West heartlands surely extend way beyond the fishing villages of Cornwall. What about the rest of the region, which has benefitted heavily from EU grants?

It's got 2 UKIP MPs - proportionally more than any other UK region and in the last Euro Elections beat the Tories quite comfortably to get most votes in the region and their increased support came from Lib Dems and the BNP. And don't forget that Gibraltar is part of that region and Gibraltar is almost universally pro-EU and if anything dampened the UKIP success.

Edit - scrub that about Gibraltar. Too small to make any difference,

 

[beorhthelm]

Yet Nigel Farage said if it was 52-48 remain, then it was far from over.

would you have accepted his view and had a re-run if the result was reversed? besides, Nigel would have carried on if it was 70-30 remain.

 

[GT49er]

A coup suggests something undemocratic - I couldn't advocate that obviously. But a coalition featuring the Lib Dems demanding a vote on the deal negotiated would be something I'm holding out for.

That would be a coup. Parliament conspiring to overturn the democratic will of the people.

 

[GT49er]

You seem happy to ignore the rather important point that nobody has had the chance to approve the actual outcome. I've yet to read a credible argument against having a vote on the deal negotiated.

The actual outcome, for which the country has voted, is we leave the EU.



End of.

 

[The Rivet]

A coup suggests something undemocratic - I couldn't advocate that obviously. But a coalition featuring the Lib Dems demanding a vote on the deal negotiated would be something I'm holding out for.

Nearly gave you an unwarranted thumbs up by mistake then.

Lib dems = dead ducks.