The Jeremy Corbyn thread

[Postman Pat]

The majority of leave voters were very suggestable, they fell for the whole thing. The £350m, immigration, overpaying for little return. Of course, they all claim now to not have believed a word of it but they did
. If Farage and the Tories tell them they want a referendum they will buy it.

When the Tories mess up Brexit (they will mess it up, no party could get a good outcome from Brexit, we're screwed) and the man on the street that voted Leave realise he's been sold down the river and has his paddle robbed from him, they'll get rid of the Tories lickety split.

But a sizeable percentage of the people who voted leave did so because of the impact of immigration in this country, JC is proposing to open the doors and let anyone come here. That isn't going to be a vote winner for those people, or a number of people that voted remain either.

 

[The Clamp]

But a sizeable percentage of the people who voted leave did so because of the impact of immigration in this country, JC is proposing to open the doors and let anyone come here. That isn't going to be a vote winner for those people, or a number of people that voted remain either.

I think the EU referendum result, more than anything, shows us the electorate is prepared to vote against their own best interest in order to protest and "stick it to the man". They'll do the same come election time.

 

[Buzzer]

I see. Thanks.
Anyway, Tories won't win, they forced us into an unwanted referendum.

How is forcing an unwanted referendum a vote loser when LEAVE won the day? If whether or not the referendum was a good thing turned out to be a game-changer in people's minds then surely the result itself would be great for the Tories.

Another point about what the referendum shows about the Tories is that they were split all along before, during and after the referendum but they are far too pragmatic to let that get in the way of wanting to be the party of government. How long did the Tory blood-letting after the referendum last before they all united behind a single candidate? One week? Two? Three at most. Bish, bosh - Cameron resigns, leadership battle, the loonies dispatched with single blows and May becomes leader - the Tories are ruthless in that respect. The split needed in the Tory party to give Corbyn a chance of winning would need to be much greater than Major had with the Bruge Group and his band of *******s and even with open divisions, Major still won in 1992. There is no equivalent group in 2016 - anyone that openly hostile enough to threaten to bring down the government are all now in UKIP.

And lastly, even the Labour Party (specifically Fabian Society) analysis shows that they would need to get in excess of 40% of the popular vote before they could be the majority party in any election. Labour need to win ex-Tories over as even with combined non-Tory votes it would not put them near to winning. Labour and McDonnell needs a miracle to turn around public perception of how McDonnell would handle the economy. Currently it's at record level lows. And other polls have shown that the mythical non-voters that Labour hope to attract are as equally split on Corbyn as voters. In Scotland, Corbyn is less popular than May. It's all here: http://www.fabians.org.uk/under-corbyns-electoral-plan-prospects-for-victory-look-bleak/

ALL the data, ALL the polls, ALL the pundits, ALL historical comparisons have shown that it's nigh on impossible for Corbyn to win even assuming he leads a united party - and he doesn't and won't even have that. Labour simply can't win under Corbyn.

 

[The Clamp]

How is forcing an unwanted referendum a vote loser when LEAVE won the day? If whether or not the referendum was a good thing turned out to be a game-changer in people's minds then surely the result itself would be great for the Tories.

Another point about what the referendum shows about the Tories is that they were split all along before, during and after the referendum but they are far too pragmatic to let that get in the way of wanting to be the party of government. How long did the Tory blood-letting after the referendum last before they all united behind a single candidate? One week? Two? Three at most. Bish, bosh - Cameron resigns, leadership battle, the loonies dispatched with single blows and May becomes leader - the Tories are ruthless in that respect. The split needed in the Tory party to give Corbyn a chance of winning would need to be much greater than Major had with the Bruge Group and his band of *******s and even with open divisions, Major still won in 1992. There is no equivalent group in 2016 - anyone that openly hostile enough to threaten to bring down the government are all now in UKIP.

And lastly, even the Labour Party (specifically Fabian Society) analysis shows that they would need to get in excess of 40% of the popular vote before they could be the majority party in any election. Labour need to win ex-Tories over as even with combined non-Tory votes it would not put them near to winning. Labour and McDonnell needs a miracle to turn around public perception of how McDonnell would handle the economy. Currently it's at record level lows. And other polls have shown that the mythical non-voters that Labour hope to attract are as equally split on Corbyn as voters. In Scotland, Corbyn is less popular than May. It's all here: http://www.fabians.org.uk/under-corbyns-electoral-plan-prospects-for-victory-look-bleak/

ALL the data, ALL the polls, ALL the pundits, ALL historical comparisons have shown that it's nigh on impossible for Corbyn to win even assuming he leads a united party - and he doesn't and won't even have that. They simply can't win under Corbyn.

It will all rest on how Brexit serves this country.

 

[Buzzer]

It will all rest on how Brexit serves this country.

No it won't. It rests on Corbyn and McDonnell leading Labour. If they are in charge then the Tories win. It's that simple.

 

[The Clamp]

No it won't. It rests on Corbyn and McDonnell leading Labour. If they are in charge then the Tories win. It's that simple.

I seem to remember people having similar certainty that we wouldn't vote Leave.
We'll see. A ways to go yet.

 

[Buzzer]

I seem to remember people having similar certainty that we wouldn't vote Leave.
We'll see. A ways to go yet.

But you've already nailed your colours to the mast with this prediction:

Anyway, Tories won't win, they forced us into an unwanted referendum.

Have you now changed your mind?

 

[The Clamp]

But you've already nailed your colours to the mast with this prediction:



Have you now changed your mind?

Nope. Anyways, I'm sticking to the ball not the man. Our opinions differ but the results will be interesting either way. Let us see.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

So, under what circumstances could there be a general election ahead of 2020?

There must be some possibility, otherwise Corbyn wouldn't stand up in front of his party and say that Labour needed to make sure they were prepared.

Mr Corbyn said there was “every chance” that the prime minister would “cut and run … So I put our party on notice today: Labour is preparing for a general election in 2017.”

Maybe he is just saying this to try and stop the "trench warfare" within his own party by saying they need to prepare for an early election.

He must believe this as he would not lie. He is far to decent and honest to lie. He is such a nice bloke that he sits on the floor of trains when all the seats are take by peoples luggage or very small people that can't be seen by CCTV.

 

[Buzzer]

Nope. Anyways, I'm sticking to the ball not the man.

Ah, that old chestnut about me playing the man and not the ball that you like to repeat. Can you please point out a single instance of where I have made personal remarks in our little tete-a-tete because I really don't think you understand that analogy.

 

[GT49er]

It will all rest on how Brexit serves this country.

No it won't. If the Westminster-centric politicians - who are far more pro Brussels than the majority of the British electorate - force an early GE, that will be before Brexit is complete. That would be a huge risk for May - instead of UKIP fading away - as it will when we are a free nation once again - UKIP would be back with a vengeance, and there would be a very angry electorate out there, furious at being betrayed by politicians trying to thwart the democratic will of the British people. Remember, although UKIP only won one seat at the last GE, they were second in a lot of seats.
Could result in the inhabitants of the Westminster bubble ending up in a political landscape they don't like at all.

 

[WonderingSoton]

I guess the suggestion is, when May has something more concrete by way of Brexit negotiation in circa 2017/18, she can hold a Gen Election to put that to the public. That is allowed within the fixed term act because it will be deemed a large enough issue of public concern.

Then May could potentially kill two birds with one stone, increased Tory majority if Labour are still a mess at the time, and a second public endorsement of Brexit to calm any internal Tory fight that might cause.

 

[spring hall convert]

I am aware of that, but Corbyn isn't going to start being electable and he is there to stay. It is rare, though, for the party of government to increase their majority in the house.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Even if you believe the Corbyn 'electability' thing, it's a two way street. The Tories could very easily become unelectable, especially with an extremely tough Brexit negotiation to navigate and a precarious global economy that hasn't really recovered from the last crash.

If I were Theresa May, I'd strike while the iron's hot. It's hard to see Labour reaching a lower point than they are at currently, she'd have a monster majority.

 

[Simster]

Ah, that old chestnut about me playing the man and not the ball that you like to repeat. Can you please point out a single instance of where I have made personal remarks in our little tete-a-tete because I really don't think you understand that analogy.

Ah, that old chestnut about me playing the man and not the ball that you like to repeat. Can you please point out a single instance of where I have made personal remarks in our little tete-a-tete because I really don't think you understand that analogy.

He is remarkably feeble at this debating lark isn't he? His modus-operandi is to pompously declare his opinions as fact, but under the teeniest bit of scrutiny he - without fail - completely crumples with nonsense about playing the ball not the man, or being incapable of backing up his assertions with evidence, or even explaining his position properly. Just wait until he decides "you're not worth the effort", then he'll unilaterally decide that explaining himself isn't even necessary. Possibly signing off with "have a good day" or something else that makes him feel grown up despite being shown up.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

Even if you believe the Corbyn 'electability' thing, it's a two way street. The Tories could very easily become unelectable, especially with an extremely tough Brexit negotiation to navigate and a precarious global economy that hasn't really recovered from the last crash.

If I were Theresa May, I'd strike while the iron's hot. It's hard to see Labour reaching a lower point than they are at currently, she'd have a monster majority.

Things could get a lot worse. The infighting will continue, Corbyn's leadership will look weaker and weaker and John McDonnell will continue to think that UK is crying out for socialism.

This would make very funny viewing if it was not for the fact that we need a strong opposition party to hold the government to account.

 

[Simster]

No it won't. If the Westminster-centric politicians - who are far more pro Brussels than the majority of the British electorate - force an early GE, that will be before Brexit is complete. That would be a huge risk for May - instead of UKIP fading away - as it will when we are a free nation once again - UKIP would be back with a vengeance, and there would be a very angry electorate out there, furious at being betrayed by politicians trying to thwart the democratic will of the British people. Remember, although UKIP only won one seat at the last GE, they were second in a lot of seats.
Could result in the inhabitants of the Westminster bubble ending up in a political landscape they don't like at all.

I agree it will not rest on how Brexit serves us - that particular shìt show won't appear for about 15 years. Luckily we will have a GE (or maybe 2) before it happens, and I'm confident that a re-energised Lib Dem party will be involved in this. With the Labour party lurching to an unelectable extreme left and the Lib Dems the only true pro-EU party, they are finally in a position to position themselves as something quite separate from both of the two main parties. I think they are going to tick all the boxes for up to 25% of the electorate, which might be enough to force a hung parliament.

 

[spring hall convert]

Things could get a lot worse. The infighting will continue, Corbyn's leadership will look weaker and weaker and John McDonnell will continue to think that UK is crying out for socialism.

This would make very funny viewing if it was not for the fact that we need a strong opposition party to hold the government to account.

But how much worse would you need it to get? You have right now a guaranteed monster majority.

You are correct that Labour could implode again, however, having tried and spectacularly failed to unseat Corbyn, in the short to medium term I just don't see what options are left open to the Labour right. They've already significantly strengthened Corbyn's position in the party this summer through their own incompetence. They need to do what they should have done in the first place if they are so convinced of his incompetence, sit tight and let him dig his own grave. If in the meantime they could unearth a left leaning candidate of substance for leader that would be useful.

 

[GT49er]

I agree it will not rest on how Brexit serves us - that particular shìt show won't appear for about 15 years. Luckily we will have a GE (or maybe 2) before it happens, and I'm confident that a re-energised Lib Dem party will be involved in this. With the Labour party lurching to an unelectable extreme left and the Lib Dems the only true pro-EU party, they are finally in a position to position themselves as something quite separate from both of the two main parties. I think they are going to tick all the boxes for up to 25% of the electorate, which might be enough to force a hung parliament.

Ah yes, the re-vitalised Lib Dem party that still believes it will rise to power and lead us back into the EU. Once we have Brexited, rejoining the EU (if it even still exists) will not be an option. Not even if 100% of the British electorate vote for it, because that decision won't be up to Britain. That part of Lib Dem vision is as much a part of cloud cuckoo land as McDonnell's apparent belief that the majority of the British electorate will vote for a hard-core left wing socialist government.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

But how much worse would you need it to get? You have right now a guaranteed monster majority.

You are correct that Labour could implode again, however, having tried and spectacularly failed to unseat Corbyn, in the short to medium term I just don't see what options are left open to the Labour right. They've already significantly strengthened Corbyn's position in the party this summer through their own incompetence. They need to do what they should have done in the first place if they are so convinced of his incompetence, sit tight and let him dig his own grave. If in the meantime they could unearth a left leaning candidate of substance for leader that would be useful.

The fact that Corbyn's position has been strengthened will mean that things will get worse. All the time he is leader the party will go from disaster to disaster. He has been in charge of the party just over 12 months and all that has happened is "trench warfare" within the party and continued division within the party.

 

[Simster]

Ah yes, the re-vitalised Lib Dem party that still believes it will rise to power and lead us back into the EU. Once we have Brexited, rejoining the EU (if it even still exists) will not be an option. Not even if 100% of the British electorate vote for it, because that decision won't be up to Britain. That part of Lib Dem vision is as much a part of cloud cuckoo land as McDonnell's apparent belief that the majority of the British electorate will vote for a hard-core left wing socialist government.

Er, the Lib Dems are campaigning on the ticket of giving the British public a chance to vote on the deal, so it might not come to us quitting the EU in the first place. Nothing cloud cuckoo about that. There is nothing done and dusted about Brexit at all. It was a non-binding referendum with a paper thin majority where nobody actually knows what Brexit will mean. With that in mind, a referendum on the deal seems a perfectly reasonable policy.