[Politics] The General Election Thread

[KZNSeagull]

I've never understood this type of odds (as opposed to 4:1, etc) - is this more or less likely?

More likely. 2 is evens, 3 is 2/1.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Ok, yes, and I assume that that was tongue in cheek. But the abuse and attempt at superiority only comes from one quarter on here. The reality of course is that there are good and bad in all communities, but attempts to portray that only one section en masse must be so much better is absurd.

So one minute you're saying it's only one section or quarter on here doing a particular thing, the next sentence it's absurd to say it's only one section doing a particular thing. Make your mind up!

 

[Bozza]

I've never understood this type of odds (as opposed to 4:1, etc) - is this more or less likely?

Essentially take 1 away from the decimal odds. thus 2.86 is 1.86/1 (so about 15/8).

 

[Bozza]

Conservative majority odds are dropping like a stone, which is strange, as only a very few (ie those collating exit poll results and those involved with postal votes) will have any information at all.

(By this, I mean the odds of a Conservative majority are getting longer, ie a Tory majority is seen as less probable)

 

[beorhthelm]

Nom 2.66

what the market size though, is it speculative punters or look like people who may have information?

 

[Bozza]

what the market size though, is it speculative punters or look like people who may have information?

The Betfair majority market is a significant one in terms of volume - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311

 

[KZNSeagull]

what the market size though, is it speculative punters or look like people who may have information?

Speculative punting I would say. £16.2m traded on betfair so far. £200k of that in the last 10 minutes or so. Odds on NOM gone out to 2.84 again. My £5 at 2.94 is now only making 3p profit! Damn and blast

 

[Machiavelli]

Conservative majority odds are dropping like a stone, which is strange, as only a very few (ie those collating exit poll results and those involved with postal votes) will have any information at all.

(By this, I mean the odds of a Conservative majority are getting longer, ie a Tory majority is seen as less probable)

This is probably due to a few factors, two of which I can offer:
1, the spread firms (which is what I've looked at) have had Labour's projected vote too low for too long. (I suspect they also have the SNP's vote a little low, and the Lib Dems a little high)
2, multiple reports of high turnout in this weather. High turnout virtually always favours Labour. Bad weather diminishes the prospects of the elderly turning out, who are strongly backing the Tories. In other words, what appears to currently be the case is that more young (strongly Labour-inclined) are turning out. The current rate of high turnout, however, might be simply a result of a December election (which we haven't had for a century), with shorter daylight hours, etc, which would mean the electorate are voting early. If it's the case that queues continue up until the polls close, then the high turnout looks likely.

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

Nope reply to another post, was it uncomfortable reading for you then, a problem ?
regards
DF

Where is your evidence?

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

I have no doubt that Johnson will be prime minister when I wake up tomorrow, I also think he will have a sizeable majority.
Why?
Because there are so many people in the country like my customer this afternoon.
" I can't vote for Corbyn"
"Why"
" He looks like he needs a wash"
"So you are happy to vote for Boris Johnson then"
"Yes probably"
"Why"
"He makes me laugh"
" What do you think about him calling Muslim women letterboxes"
"Oh yeah, I forgot about that"
"Do you know anything about Johnson"
" No, not really, I don't do politics"
" Do you mind me asking how you voted in the referendum"
"Leave"
"Why"
"I don't like the EU"
" Fair enough, do you know anything about what they actually do or don't do"
"No as I said I really don't do politics"
And people wonder why they are The Thickos.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Ok, yes, and I assume that that was tongue in cheek. But the abuse and attempt at superiority only comes from one quarter on here. The reality of course is that there are good and bad in all communities, but attempts to portray that only one section en masse must be so much better is absurd.

Yes it was that Commie Mrs May who said something about the nasty party I recall?

 

[sully]

Given the apparent parachuted-in-Tory safety of my Mid Sussex seat, I did give a moment's genuine consideration to voting for Baron Von Thunderclap of the MRL Party.

However I was then overcome by a National Lottery-like twinkle of hope and voted Lib Dem.

The tactical voting sites say vote Labour there......

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Yes it was that Commie Mrs May who said something about the nasty party I recall?

More seriously, you make a fair enough point and I have friends and family who are Tory and even the off Brexiteer. But I tend to like them despite this rather than because of it.

 

[zefarelly]

Yes Jess Phillips is bloody fantastic, we could do with a lot more like her.

I've no idea who Neal Coyle is, but he's spot on with regard to Piers Morgan

 

[Ernest]

Conservative majority odds are dropping like a stone, which is strange, as only a very few (ie those collating exit poll results and those involved with postal votes) will have any information at all.

(By this, I mean the odds of a Conservative majority are getting longer, ie a Tory majority is seen as less probable)

Laying off liabilities ?

 

[Ernest]

Tory majority is down to 8/15 from 1/4 yesterday, that is a significant move , all the Labour odds are shrinking at the moment

 

[Hastings gull]

Yes it was that Commie Mrs May who said something about the nasty party I recall?

And the others are . well, just wonderful. Is this how you simplistically view it?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

And the others are . well, just wonderful. Is this how you simplistically view it?

And here's me saying that you made a fair point...………...

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Where is your evidence?

it was in the argus months ago , these people were removed from the country for being unable to sustain themselves and rightly so
regards
DF

 

[JJ McClure]

Given the apparent parachuted-in-Tory safety of my Mid Sussex seat, I did give a moment's genuine consideration to voting for Baron Von Thunderclap of the MRL Party.

However I was then overcome by a National Lottery-like twinkle of hope and voted Lib Dem.

Well that's one vote that the Lib Dem misinformation campaign has won.